辽宁铁岭市土壤侵蚀时空演变研究

近年来,人为活动的加剧造成铁岭地区水土流失日益严重。本文采用遥感和GIS技术,以部颁标准SL190-96对铁岭地区1991年和2001年的土壤侵蚀情况进行研究,并结合1986年和1996年的土壤侵蚀调查数据,分析了铁岭地区近15年来土壤侵蚀强度的时空变化,结果表明铁岭地区在此期间土壤侵蚀面积缓慢增长,其中强度侵蚀面积在1986~1996年间持续增长,2001年明显下降;中度侵蚀面积在1986~1996年间持续下降,2001年则明显增强;空间分析显示明显恶化的区域有西丰、开原和清河区,具明显改善的为铁岭县,而昌图和调兵山地区基本保持稳定。今后该区水保的重点应放在强度侵蚀的治理,以及土壤侵蚀等级增强的区域。     

高地震区公路隧道地震动力响应分析

基于土一结构相互作用理论,对高地震区一实际重大工程的公路隧道洞口段结构进行了抗震计算,得到了衬砌结构各控制点的位移、加速度及内力响应规律。结果表明：在人工合成地震波条件下,衬砌墙脚、拱腰为抗震薄弱位置;结构的加速度波形与输入波形相似;这些结果为抗震设计提供了一些依据。     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Characterizing heterogeneous permeable media with spatial statistics and tracer data using sequential simulated annealing

Characterizing heterogeneous permeable media using flow and transport data typically requires solution of an inverse problem. Such inverse problems are intensive computationally and may involve iterative procedures requiring many forward simulations of the flow and transport problem. Previous attempts have been limited mostly to flow data such as pressure transient (interference) tests using multiple observation wells. This paper discusses an approach to generating stochastic permeability fields conditioned to geologic data in the form of a vertical variogram derived from cores and logs as well as fluid flow and transport data, such as tracer concentration history, by sequential application of simulated annealing (SA). Thus, the method incorporates elements of geostatistics within the framework of inverse modeling. For tracer-transport calculations, we have used a semianalytic transit-time algorithm which is fast, accurate, and free of numerical dispersion. For steady velocity fields, we introduce a transit-time function which demonstrates the relative importance of data from different sources. The approach is illustrated by application to a set of spatial permeability measurements and tracer data from an experiment in the Antolini Sandstone, an eolian outcrop from northern Arizona. The results clearly reveal the importance of tracer data in reproducing the correlated features (channels) of the permeability field and the scale effects of heterogeneity.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.     

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。     

Atténuation de l'intensité macrosismique pour la France métropolitaine : importance de l'intensité épicentrale

The main result of this work is to show that macroseismic intensity decay with distance strongly depends on the epicentral intensity. An attenuation law that takes this parameter into account is proposed for Metropolitan France, from the analysis of SISFRANCE macroseismic database. Such a model significantly reduces the difference between observed and theoretical intensities. A map of the attenuation variations is also set up for Metropolitan France. No major site effects are observed, but at a broad scale, young Alpine regions display a stronger attenuation than old Hercynian regions. To cite this article: P. Arroucau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

A high resolution relative paleointensity record from the Gerlache-Boyd paleo-ice stream region, northern Antarctic Peninsula

Herein we document and interpret an absolute chronological dating attempt using geomagnetic paleointensity data from a post-glacial sediment drape on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf. Our results demonstrate that absolute dating can be established in Holocene Antarctic shelf sediments that lack suitable material for radiocarbon dating. Two jumbo piston cores of 10-m length were collected in the Western Bransfield Basin. The cores preserve a strong, stable remanent magnetization and meet the magnetic mineral assemblage criteria recommended for reliable paleointensity analyses. The relative paleomagnetic intensity records were tuned to published absolute and relative paleomagnetic stacks, which yielded a record of the last ∼8500 years for the post-glacial drape. Four tephra layers associated with documented eruptions of nearby Deception Island have been dated at 3.31, 3.73, 4.44, and 6.86 ± 0.07 ka using the geomagnetic paleointensity method. This study establishes the dual role of geomagnetic paleointensity and tephrochronology in marine sediments across both sides of the northern Antarctic Peninsula.     

Modeling the seismic response of basin-edge structure by a sequential waveform method

A sequential waveform method is developed to simulate the seismic response of basin-edge structure excited by a plane incident P-wave. The full procedure involves: (a) a previous parameterization of the investigated model using the seismic wave velocities and depths of the sedimentary stratifications; (b) an input motion determined from the records at stations installed on hard rock; (c) forward computation of the P-SV elastic wave field by means of a two-dimensional finite difference (FD) method; (d) the optimization of the model vector using simulated annealing technique and comparing the simulated seismic response of the tested structure with the observed wave field; (e) the correction of the initial model by trial-and-error by testing the differences between synthetics and observed data, and (f) the final solution obtained by iteration using the conjugate gradient algorithm. The search of an optimal basin-edge model has been parallel processed by varying the shapes and velocities of strata on the basis of the fitting of relative timing, amplitude and phase between the output and the observed data. The input motion and sensitivity have been checked and the validity of the method has been demonstrated by numeric analysis. Using the teleseismic records generated by 7 earthquakes recorded at 26 broadband seismic stations, we have studied the seismic velocity structure of the southern edge of the Jiyang depression located in the Bohai Bay basin, northern China. Two cross sections show an agreement between the velocity results and the geological sections available in the region. In addition, we obtain evidence of three hidden faults under the sections and features that suggest major extensions at the Paleogene.     

On the Importance of Geolithological Features for the Estimate of the Site Response: The Case of Catania Metropolitan Area (Italy)

The evaluation of seismic site response in the urban area of Catania was tackled by selecting test areas having peculiar lithological and structural features, potentially favourable to large local amplifications of ground motion. The two selected areas are located in the historical downtown and in the northern part of Catania where the presence of a fault is evident. Site response was evaluated using spectral ratio technique taking the horizontal- to-vertical component ratio of ambient noise. Inferences from microtremor measurements are compared with results from synthetic accelerograms and response spectra computed at all drillings available for this area. Such method is particularly suitable in urban areas where the nature of the outcropping geological units is masked by city growth and anthropic intervention on the surface geology. The microtremor H/V spectral ratios evaluated at soft sites located within the downtown profile tend to be smaller than that usually reported in the literature for such soils. A tendency for amplifications to peaks near 2 Hz is observed only in some sites located on recent alluvial deposits. Evidences for amplifications of site effects (frequency range 4–8 Hz) were observed in the sampling sites located on the fault, with a rapid decrease of spectral amplitude just a few tenths of metres away from the discontinuity. Numerical simulations evidenced the importance of geolithological features at depth levels even greater than 20–30 m. Besides this, the results strongly confirm the importance of the subsurface geological conditions, in the estimate of seismic hazard at urban scale.