1961-2005年华东地区高温气候特征

Based on the daily maximum temperature data covering the period 1961-2005, temporal and spatial characteristics and their changing in mean annual and monthly high temperature days (HTDs) and the mean daily maximum temperature (MDMT) during annual and monthly HTDs in East China were studied. The results show that the mean annual HTDs were 15.1 and the MDMT during annual HTDs was 36.3℃ in the past 45 years. Both the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs were negative anomaly in the1980s and positive anomaly in the other periods of time, oscillating with a cycle of about 12-15 years. The mean annual HTDs were more in the southern part, but less in the northern part of East China. The MDMT during annual HTDs was higher in Zhejiang, Anhui and Jiangxi provinces in the central and western parts of East China. The high temperature process (HTP) was more in the southwestern part, but less in northeastern part of East China. Both the HTDs and the numbers of HTP were at most in July, and the MDMT during monthly HTDs was also the highest in July. In the first 5 years of the 21st century, the mean annual HTDs and the MDMT during annual HTDs increased at most of the stations, both the mean monthly HTDs and the MDMT during monthly HTDs were positive anomalies from April to October, the number of each type of HTP generally was at most and the MDMT in each type of HTP was also the highest.     

疏勒河径流量与绿洲面积、农业产值及生态效益的关系

基于1954-2010 年疏勒河干流出山径流量、2000-2010年流域内灌区水资源供应量、灌区农作物种植类型、农作物及林草地面积等资料,通过建立系统动力学模型,探讨了气候变化背景下疏勒河径流量对绿洲的影响。结果表明:绿洲受径流量变化影响显著,若出山径流量按1954-2010 年变化趋势增加,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益将有不同程度增加; 若出山径流量减小,绿洲面积、农业产值、生态效益亦相应减小。2020年出山径流量较2010年分别减少5%、10%、15%时,绿洲面积和农业产值相应减小4.5%、8.9%、13.4%。在径流量不变情况下,若普及常规节水,林、草地面积均增加16%以上; 若普及高效节水,林、草地面积均扩大54.7%; 若提高渠系利用率到0.70,林草地面积扩大5%以上,总产值增加5.4%; 若提高渠系利用率到0.75,林草地面积增加12%以上,总产值增加12.2%。     

民航飞机气象资料的应用及探讨

为了将AMDAR资料应用于常规观测预报中,对天气系统的演变特征进行更细微的监测,利用2011年5月1~3日的AMDAR资料,分析AMDAR时空分布特点;对比气象常规高空观测实际,研究AMDAR资料处理技术,得出具体算法,并结合2011年5月1~3日常规高空观测资料分析天气形势,看出常规高空观测中显示的1日20时移出盆地的高原东部至盆地上空的浅槽于1日14时就已经移出盆地了,延安伸出的槽在14时也已出现。研究结果表明,高空气压的计算可直接用等温大气中的压高方程代替;AMDAR资料应用于常规高空观测可以得到比常规高空观测更为细致的结果。     

矿物热敏参数测试仪及其在地质找矿中的应用

介绍了国内外第一台矿物热敏参数测试仪研制的原理、应用范围和对一些金属矿物、半导体矿物的测试情况以及仪器在浙江、赣南等地区金矿找矿中的初步应用。     

基于温度梯度修正的山东省年均温资料插值方法比较研究

对研究区气象站点的年均温与其他地理要素进行相关分析,发现温度与高程具有较高的相关系数。在此基础上,设计了使用空间内插方法分别获得研究区气温与高程,再根据内插得到的高程与实际DEM之差对内插得到的气温进行温度梯度修正,以得到实地气温的方法。这种方法可以有效的消除对气温进行内插时,高程要素对其产生的干扰。分别运用IDW、Kriging、Spline3种方法进行插值,比较结果发现IDW法得到的结果最能反映温度随空间位置变化的趋势,较其他两种内插方法具有较大的优势。     

长江沿岸港口体系的形成过程与机制

长江沿岸港口体系是长江经济带的重要支撑。本文首先对自古以来长江沿岸港口体系的形成发展过程进行了科学实证,发现港口体系经历了“港口的起源与产生—港口体系萌芽—港口体系雏形—港口体系形成—港口体系升级”5个阶段。依据实证分析,对长江沿岸港口体系的形成机制进行了归纳演绎,认为相关港口对水水中转和陆水中转腹地的长期相互竞争是导致港口体系形成的主要机制,其中对水水中转腹地的竞争尤为关键,而港口对中转腹地的竞争随时间推移不断向更深层次更广领域推进。最后从政策层面,对长江沿岸港口体系和长江经济带综合运输体系建设的若干问题进行了讨伦。     

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

面向全域全要素的广州市国土空间规划传导体系研究

建立科学清晰的传导体系是保障规划治理效力的重要前提。随着全国各层级国土空间规划编制与改革的推进,空间规划体系雏形初显,明确各级、各类规划编制内容、管理权限和传导路径,已成为各级政府十分关切的问题。文章基于广州国土空间规划试点的编制实践,针对原有规划体系中指标分解难、控制线管控标准不一、用地管控尺度和精度不一、设施管控缺乏分级等问题,以全域全要素管控为目标,提出了广州建立“四级三类”规划传导体系及实施评估监督的建议,认为一是要在纵向传导上,强化规划编制和“市—区—街道”行政管理体系的衔接,构建“市域—区—单元—地块”4个纵向传导层级,重点围绕“目标战略、底线管控、功能与用地管控、设施管控”4类核心管控内容明确各层级编制内容和深度;二是要在横向传导上,构建专项规划与各层级规划的“联系-反馈”机制,推进专项规划与总体层面规划同步编制,达成管控要求、核心指标等方面的共识,并加强详细规划层面的设施评估反馈,细化详细规划在指标、名录、位置、结构4个方面的传导要求。     

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基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。