贵州冰雹灾害强度评估方法研究

【目的】为快速评估单次过程冰雹强度和范围,及时为灾后的救援、勘察和保险核灾工作提供参考依据,【方法】本文利用贵州省2021-2023年间的141次冰雹过程的多普勒天气雷达资料和探空资料,结合降雹观测资料和灾害损失调查记录,在贵州山区防雹业务预报预警指标的框架下,通过历史资料回算的定性评估结果跟网格化处理后的降雹数据做一致性对比,选取冰雹强度精细化评估的影响结果覆盖94%以上的降雹观测点位置且收敛性较好的阈值作为单时次的识别指标确定的依据,采用加权时间积分方法建立冰雹过程评估模型,该模型能够对冰雹过程进行精细化评估得到1km空间分辨率的评估结果。【结果】为验证评估结果的准确性,选取了一次典型灾害开展无人机遥感调查,反演结果与评估结果作对比检验,25处冰雹受灾位置中有22处降雹区位于评估范围的重度区域内,3处降雹区位于评估结果对应的中度灾害范围内,调查情况与冰雹精细化评估的强度范围和分布一致。以六盘水市风雹灾害损失记录和冰雹影响面积区域评估数据作对比分析,结果表明三种不同冰雹强度的评估面积与直接经济损失数据的两两相关系数均达到0.8以上,在0.01的显著性水平下进行假设检验,具有显著正相关。【结论】检验结果说明该评估方法在冰雹区域强度评估中能够较好地反映实际受灾程度。     

基于Android终端的GIS林业数据采集系统设计

在野外利用智能终端设备采集数据可以保证获取资料的便利性与准确性。针对林业数据的数量庞大、科目多样、分布区域广泛等特点,本系统基于现有的Android平台结合百度地图API及定位SDK组件调用进行二次开发,实现地图接入、位置定位、路线搜索等服务,通过相关命令调用终端拍照等应用在数据库中实现数据采集、属性记录及导出功能,系统主要包括登录模块、采集模块、数据管理模块等。本文设计的Android终端GIS采集数据系统可以满足外业人员对林业数据的核查、修改与采集需求,为野外核查工作提供了新的模式和方法。     

城市隐蔽管线多源探查方法

城市地下管线对城市的正常运转发挥了重要作用。隐蔽管线是城市地下管网的重要组成部分。本文根据莱州市城市隐蔽管线探查的特点,探讨了多源探查方法的理念及其在莱州市地下管线探查中的应用,并对其地下管线探测精度进行了验证。     

浅谈提高空中三角测量数据成果质量的3个关键环节

空中三角测量数据主要是为摄影测量提供定向框架数据,其质量决定最终产品的质量。笔者结合生产实践中遇到的实际问题,对提高空中三角测量数据成果质量的3个关键环节——航外控制测量,航内控制点量测,外业控制点的残差分析、空中三角测量成果检查及评定的重要性进行了阐述。     

Verification and recalibration of HY-2A microwave radiometer brightness temperature

HY-2A is the first one of the Chinese HY-2 ocean satellite series carrying a microwave radiometer(RM)to measure sea surface temperature,sea surface wind speed,atmospheric water vapor,cloud liquid water content,and rain rate.We verified the RM level 1B brightness temperature(T B)to retrieve environmental parameters.In the verification,TB that simulated using the ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer model(RTM)was used as a reference.The total bias and total standard deviation(SD)of the RM level 1B TB,with reference to the RTM simulation,ranged-20.6-4.38 K and 0.7-2.93 K,respectively.We found that both the total bias and the total SD depend on the frequency and polarization,although the values for ascending and descending passes are different.In addition,substantial seasonal variation of the bias was found at all channels.The verification results indicate the RM has some problems regarding calibration,e.g.,correction of antenna spillover and antenna physical emission,especially for the 18.7-GHz channel.Based on error analyses,a statistical recalibration algorithm was designed and recalibration was performed for the RM level 1B TB.Validation of the recalibrated TB indicated that the quality of the recalibrated RM level 1B TB was improved significantly.The bias of the recalibrated T B at all channels was reduced to<0.4 K,seasonal variation was almost eradicated,and SD was diminished(i.e.,the SD of the 18.7-GHz channel was reduced by more than 0.5K).     

Reliability of mooring lines and piles for a permanently manned vessel in a tropical cyclone environment

The factors of safety for stationkeeping systems in current standards (ISO, API) are not derived or validated using reliability analyses. As the oil and gas exploration and production is breaking new boundaries, deploying new floating systems and moving into regions with harsher environments, it is of paramount importance to understand what level of reliability these new marine structures are achieving. This paper presents a reliability analysis of the mooring system of a Floating LNG (FLNG) vessel permanently moored and permanently manned offshore North West Australia in a tropical cyclone environment. The reliability analysis addresses both the mooring chain and the pile foundation. The analysis accounts for the long term characteristics of the environment, including the short term variability, in response to a given sea state and the variability and uncertainty in strength of the mooring chain and the pile. The stationkeeping system was analysed using detailed time domain simulations, capturing system non-linearities and low frequency oscillations as well as wave frequency responses and, thereby, reducing modelling uncertainties to a minimum.It is found that for the conditions modelled, neither the chain nor the pile meet a target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum using the factors of safety commonly used in design following current ISO and API standards. New factors of safety are proposed to achieve this target reliability. For the pile design, one complicating factor is that current design standards do not explicitly define the exceedance probability that should be associated with the characteristic value of the undrained shear strength to be used in the design. It is demonstrated that the required factor of safety is crucially dependent on the definition of this characteristic value and on the level and the type of uncertainty in the soil strength profile. A recommendation is made regarding the definition of this characteristic value and the associated factor of safety. Furthermore, it is found that designing the mooring system to an environmental condition with a return period of 10,000 yr (as an Abnormal Limit State event), and setting the factor of safety to unity, meets the target reliability of 10⁻⁴/annum for the pile, if the characteristic undrained shear strength is a lower bound, defined in this paper by the 10th percentile value. For the chain however, this target reliability is not achieved.     

自动化监测系统在深基坑监测中的可靠性分析

深基坑监测对于城市工程的安全建设具有重要的指导意义。为了探究自动化监测系统在城市深基坑监测中的可行性,根据全站仪的测量原理利用Matlab进行三维仿真,从理论上证明了自动化监测系统的平面精度能够达到规范要求。采用尺度变形分析及水平位移对比分析,论证了在城市深基坑监测中利用自动化监测系统进行水平位移监测的可靠性。     

MASNUM海浪数值模式业务化预报与检验

介绍了MASNUM(Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海浪数值预报系统,并利用全球和西北太平洋的Jason-1卫星数据和NDBC浮标数据中的海浪波高观测,对该预报系统进行了自2007年8月1日-2007年12月31日5个月的24,48和72 h预报结果的比较检验.模式校验结果表明,有效波高预报与观测的绝均差在0.5 m左右,从夏季到冬季,预报精度不断提高,与风场冬季预报精度较高吻合.     

港域波浪数学模型的改进与验证

通过物理模型对改进的港内波浪传播变形数学模型进行验证。该数学模型以推广的时变缓坡方程为控制方程,采用含松弛因子的ADI法求解,并对波浪反射和透射边界模拟方法进行改进。先通过物理模型试验确定斜向浪入射条件下抛石防波堤前的波浪反射系数,作为数学模型中部分反射边界模拟的依据。然后进行了一个典型港口内波浪折射、绕射和反射的模型试验,测量港内波浪分布。对比模型试验和数学模型计算的结果表明,数学模型可较好地模拟港内复杂地形和边界条件下规则波和不规则波的传播变形。     

A Global Reliability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms. For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms, a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper. The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore platforms. It is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagati...