西霞院反调节水库控制网的布设及优化

采取平面网与高程网相结合的方法布设了施工控制网，并引用工程控制网优化设计的有关理论，结合实际对平面网的网形进行了机助优化。在网形确定的基础上，文中采用可靠因子为质量指标对网中的观测量进行优化，最终得到了满足精度和可靠性要求的最优布设方案。     

巴基斯坦地方地震台网的监控能力与可靠性

使用Bungum和Huseby方法对地方地震台网的监控能力和可靠性进行了分析。用震源位置的标准计算机码重新定位地震事件。由频率震级分布导出50％，90％和100％的累积监控能力阀值，对这些阀值23年内记录资料的监控能力水平作了估测。分析表明，在台网内发生的地震事件的台网100％监控能力水平为ML=1.7，从台网内固定实时震源对台网震源解精度作了分析。地震事件在台网内发生时，震中误差低于4km。最后讨论了地方地震台网连续运行期间影响监控能力的因素。     

边坡稳定可靠性的随机有限元分析

随机有限元法可以处理土性参数的变异性和空间相关性。对二阶摄动随机有限元法的摄动理论和程序进行了研究，提出了偏导矩阵的组集方法，采用正态分布随机变量的正交变换法来提高计算效率。考虑土性参数随机场作用和土性指标之间的互相关性，建立边坡局部抗剪和总体稳定性可靠度的随机有限元分析模型，对某实际土坡进行了可靠度计算，计算结果较为符合实际。     

随机地震动场激励下拱坝多点输入的抗震可靠度分析

本文首次将空间随机地震场输入用于拱坝随机振动分析之中，与拱坝三维动力学有限元法结合，完成了三维拱坝在空间随机地震动场作用下的随机振动分析方法及算法的研究，另外考虑动力和静力的叠加，提出了三维空间随机地震动场的拱坝抗震可靠度分析方法，最后编制了相应的程序，对小湾拱坝进行了抗震可靠度分析，并与随机变量的结果进行了比较。     

GPS网可靠性强度分析

本文对GPS基线向量网的可靠性进行了探讨,提出了作为相关观测值的单个基线向量的可靠性指标和粗差检验方法,并通过对实测网和模拟网的计算与分析,得出了一些有关GPS基线向量网可靠性设计的建议和结论。     

Evaluation of safety of hydraulic structures affected by migrating pits

Because it can be carried by flowing water, a sand/gravel pit on the river bed could migrate downstream. Consequently, the presence of pits on river beds could pose a safety threat to in-stream hydraulic structures such as bridge piers. A pit migration model can be used to predict progressive changes of pit geometry as it migrates downstream. However, due to the existence of many uncertainties, the maximum pit depth cannot be predicted with certainty. This paper adopted a simple pit migration model and evaluated the uncertainty associated with the calculated maximum pit depth. Such information is essential for evaluating the probability that a migrating pit could pose a safety threat to a downstream hydraulic structure. Three reliability analysis techniques were applied and their performances were compared.     

Comparing performance indicators to characterize the water supply to the demands of the Guadiana River basin (Spain)

ABSTRACT

Water indicators and indices are useful tools to assess river basin performance, that is, to measure whether the basin operates satisfactorily under a wide range of possible future demands and hydrological conditions. Spanish regulations assess the performance of water demands by using reliability indicators (RIs), established by law in 2008. This article raises the possibility of updating RIs by comparing them with sustainability indicators (SIs). SIs are widely used for the assessment of river basin performance and several policy scenarios. We applied a water allocation model to the Guadiana River basin in Spain to compare indicators under three scenarios. The study was framed within the science of socio-hydrology, combining the physical environment of a water system with its influence on social aspects. SIs gave better results than RIs when comparing future scenarios. We also propose the introduction of a vulnerability indicator into Spanish regulations.     

RC框架结构薄弱层的层间位移可靠度水平考察

讨论了钢筋混凝土框架结构层间极限变形角的近似概率特性,考察了大震作用下20余幢钢筋混凝土框架结构薄弱层的层间位移可靠度水平,从而为直接基于位移可靠度的抗震设计中层间目标位移可靠度的确定提供了一定依据。     

海底电磁探测仪器的承压密封舱

在海底进行电磁场探测必须解决仪器的承压密封问题。密封舱的体重对海上投放作业的难易程度有直接影响。为协调设备安全与海上施工效率的一致性,对所研制的承压密封舱需进行合理设计,以较小的体积和重量实现所规定的承压指标。论述了海底电磁探测仪器的承压密封舱的可靠性设计方法、舱体内部的器件安装结构及海底测量过程,压力模拟试验表明所研制的承压密封舱已达到设计要求。     

风险分析实践的感悟

考虑到我国水资源短缺、水灾害频发和水环境恶化的情势,在水利建设和管理中,突出风险意识是非常必要的和十分及时的。我们多年从事风险分析实践的感悟是：水利风险模拟分析完全不同于建筑结构物的可靠度计算,更不是模拟设计洪水的淹没范围和水深,其真谛是在于如实模拟出当地的水旱灾害的不确定性,是对传统思维模式的重大的突破。有些传统理念也有必要作调整,如：工程水文学科的内涵,可持续发展的不确定性和风险分析的风险。