城镇化背景下欠发达县域土地利用结构与经济绩效关联度及优化分析--以江西上饶市万年县为例

基于信息熵模型和多因素加权法研究万年县土地利用结构有序度以及土地经济绩效变化趋势,通过灰色关联度模型分析两者的关联度。结果表明:万年县的土地利用结构日趋合理,土地经济绩效日益增长;土地利用结构与经济绩效存在最显著相关性的一级地类是交通运输用地,二级地类是公路用地;从2011~2017年石镇镇、梓埠镇、青云镇、汪家乡、苏桥乡、上坊乡六个乡镇的公路用地占各乡镇土地总面积的比例增量较少,经济增长比排名靠后,需要调整土地结构,加大对公路用地的投入。研究成果可为区域土地利用结构优化提供参考,为欠发达县域的经济发展提供指导建议。     

冻结砂土体积变形影响因素的敏感性分析

为了分析三轴试验中冻土体积变形影响因素的敏感性,选定包括内因和外因在内的6种影响因素,选用青海省德令哈的砂土按照正交试验方案进行常规三轴试验,并采用灰色关联分析法对试验结果进行分析,给出各影响因素的敏感性排序。结果表明,在选定的6种影响因素中,含水率、加载速率及温度的敏感性超过70%,需重点考虑。在较小含水率条件下,冻结砂土先体缩再体胀,且应力峰值点和应变峰值点所对应的轴向应变基本一致,而在饱和条件下仅发生体积膨胀。加载速率对冻土的影响主要表现为对其力学特性和破坏形态的改变,随着加载速率的增加冻土的体缩量、切线模量和峰值强度增加,但峰值应变却表现为减小趋势,冻结砂土性质趋近脆性。土样温度降低,土颗粒间的黏结力增加,孔隙压力转变为有效应力,从而导致冻结砂土的强度增加、体积膨胀量增加。分析结果可为相关试验及工程优化设计提供一定的参考。     

Drivers of national climate policy

Patterns of national climate policy performance and their implications for the geopolitics of climate change are examined. An overview of levels of emissions performance across countries is first provided. Substantial changes in emissions trends over time are documented, notably with GHG emissions trajectories, which are shaped less and less by the developed/developing country divide. Various patterns of policy convergence and divergence in the types of policies states implement are then surveyed. Four broad types of explanation that may account for these trends are then explored: (1) variation in the institutional form of country-level governance regimes, (2) patterns of dependence on fossil fuel energy, (3) broad systemic differences among states (specifically in their population densities, carbon intensity, and per capita incomes, and (4) variations in the traditions of economic intervention by states. The article contributes to the growing body of work on comparative climate policy, and provides a first attempt at exploring the comparative politics of instrument choice. The analysis challenges the continued importance of a North–South divide for the future of climate policy, thus reinforcing a sense of the ‘new geopolitics’ of climate change. Some of the implications of the analysis for debates about the form of future international agreement on mitigation policy are also explored.

Policy relevance

The article contributes to the understanding of the variety of institutional conditions under which policy makers develop policy and thus the constraints and opportunities for the design of international agreements under these conditions.     

Credible commitment in carbon policy

In this article the problem of credible commitment in carbon policy is discussed. Investors favour long-term predictability of the policy, but without any external enforcement mechanisms a commitment made by a government can be withdrawn, leading to scepticism and lack of credibility. This results in increased market risks and investment hold-up. Regulatory uncertainty stems from (i) strategic interactions between government and firms, (ii) potential learning about climate damage and abatement cost and (iii) political volatility. Although commitment to future policy encourages private investment, it also imposes costs in the form of reduced flexibility to accommodate new information or preferences. The article reviews devices that may help policy makers raise the level of commitment while also leaving some room for flexible adjustments. In particular, legislation of a long-term governance framework, delegation to an independent carbon agency and securitization of investors' stakes in emission markets offer palliative approaches.     

Sectoral approaches for a post-2012 climate regime: a taxonomy

Sectoral approaches have been gaining currency in the international climate debate as a possible remedy to the shortfalls of the Kyoto Protocol. Proponents argue that a sector-based architecture can more easily invite the participation of developing countries, address competitiveness issues, and enable immediate emissions reductions. However, given the numerous proposals, much confusion remains as to what sectoral approaches actually are. This article provides a simple, yet comprehensive, taxonomy of the various proposals for sectoral approaches. Based on the dual criteria of content and actors, three such types are identified and described: government targets and timetables; industry targets and timetables; and transnational technology cooperation. For each of these types, existing proposals and ongoing initiatives are discussed. In a second step, the article analyses the political landscape in which sectoral approaches are being debated, identifying the interests of their key advocates as well as the concerns of their critics. The Japanese government and energy-intensive manufacturing industries represent the main proponents of sectoral approaches to address the problems of carbon leakage and economic competitiveness. Developing countries, on the other hand, are wary of attempts to impose emissions reduction targets on their economies through sectoral target-setting. They, therefore, interpret sectoral approaches as sector-based forms of technology cooperation and technology transfer.     

Building bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali

What would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame.     

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: MORE THAN EVER,THE BUSINESS OF AMERICA

Community-produced spaces such as community gardens are attracting widespread scholarly interest for the potential of not only food production, but also for social, environmental, and educational benefits. Yet community gardens have also been scrutinized as sites of governmentality that produce neoliberal subjects. In this article, six case studies are analyzed as representative of three ways to organize and manage gardens—grassroots, externally-organized, and active nonprofit management. I use performativity theory to examine how definitions and enactments of community can be used to include, exclude, or bridge difference. The analysis highlights some of the specific moments in garden organizing and management that influence participation or resistance to community-oriented urban food production.     

Factors affecting runoff and sediment yield on the semiarid loess area in Northern Shaanxi Province,China

The semiarid loess area in north Shaanxi Province is one of the most serious areas of water erosion in China. The Chinese government initiated the project “Grain-for-Green” for soil erosion control in 1999, with significant effect. Vegetation, rainfall, soil, and topography are the most dominant natural factors affecting soil erosion; therefore, the aim of this research was to investigate the effects of these four factors on runoff and soil loss at the runoff-plot scale over five years and use the Gray relational analysis methods to compare the impacts of these factors. Five runoff-measuring sites were established in five different vegetation types. The results show that the relative impacts of the four factors on runoff were: rainfall > soil > topography > vegetation, and the relative impacts of the factors on sediment yield were soil > runoff > rainfall > topography > vegetation. We also analyzed the weights of these four factors on runoff and sediment yield during the wettest year alone. For that year, the relative weights of the factors on runoff were topography > rainfall > soil > vegetation, and the relative weights of the factors on sediment yield were runoff > soil > rainfall > topography > vegetation.     

灰关联分析法和模糊综合评判法在水库水质评价中的应用

采用吉林省水环境监测中心2006年的水环境监测数据,选择其中具有代表性的七项指标作为评价因子,分别应用灰关联分析法和模糊综合评判法对石头口门水库的水质进行了综合评价,并详细介绍了两种评价方法评价的计算过程。结果表明,2006年水库的水质总体属于Ⅲ类,满足国家生活饮用水标准,但已受到一定程度污染,有必要提出污染防治和治理对策。     

Finding common ground: relational concepts of land tenure and economy in the oil palm frontier of Papua New Guinea

In the oil palm frontier regions of West New Britain and Oro provinces, Papua New Guinea, customary land tenure arrangements are changing in response to the growing demand for land for agricultural development. This paper examines one aspect of these changes, namely the gifting and selling of customary land for oil palm development to people who have no customary birthrights to the land. By analysing how access rights are maintained over the relatively long cultivation cycle of oil palm (approximately 25 years), and in the context of the rapidly changing socio-economic and demographic environments of the oil palm frontiers, the paper demonstrates that while land transactions seemingly entail the commodification of land, land rights and security of land tenure remain embedded in social relationships. For customary landowners, the moral basis of land rights is contingent on 'outsiders' maintaining particular kinds of social and economic relationships with their customary landowning 'hosts'. In exploring how these social relationships are constituted through the performance of particular kinds of exchange relationships, the paper provides insights into relational concepts of land rights and how these are able to persist in Papua New Guinea's oil palm frontier regions where resource struggles are often intense and where large migrant populations are seeking land for agricultural development.