GRAPES区域集合预报两种侧边界扰动方法对比试验

中国气象局数值预报中心自2014年建立了区域集合预报业务系统,其使用的侧边界扰动由全球集合预报系统动力降尺度得到。为深入了解侧边界扰动对区域集合预报的影响,基于15 km水平分辨率的区域集合预报模式,使用动力降尺度方法和尺度化滞后平均法(scaled lagged average forecasting,SLAF)设计构造了两种侧边界扰动方案,并开展了2015年7月共6天的集合预报试验,利用集合均方根误差、集合离散度、连续分级概率评分、离群值、Brier Score及相对作用特征曲线面积等概率预报检验方法进行了多方面检验,分析了两种侧边界扰动方案对区域集合预报质量的影响。结果表明:动力降尺度侧边界扰动方案(DOWN)的扰动总能量在各垂直层次均大于SLAF方案,使得边界上前者的离散度大于后者,集合扰动增长更为合理;对于等压面要素和地面要素,DOWN方案的离散度、Outlier、CRPS等评分优于SLAF方案,反映了DOWN方案构造的侧边界扰动更加合理;在降水概率预报技巧方面,SLAF方案在评分上具有一定优势,但评分的提高没有通过显著性水平检验,因此认为两种方案对降水预报的改进基本相当。     

不同要素谱逼近对高分辨区域数值模式梅雨模拟的改进

为改进高分辨率区域数值天气预报模式雨带模拟偏差,利用WRF模式探讨了不同要素及其组合谱逼近方法对2015年浙江典型梅雨天气预报性能的影响。结果表明:(1)不同单要素逼近对梅雨模拟效果影响差异明显,风场逼近对模拟结果改进较大,高度场逼近对结果略有改善,而温度场逼近主要表现为负效应;风场组合了其他要素的逼近效果与单要素类似,故将水平风场谱逼近确定为最优方案。(2)最优方案对梅雨期间形势场各要素改进程度的排序为纬向风、经向风、相对湿度、温度场和高度场;三个特征层850、500、200 hPa各要素平均的均方根误差(相关系数)分别降低了(增加了)24. 1%(13.6%)、22.7%(21.7%)和13.0%(12.2%);且改进幅度随预报时效的延长而增加,这主要与区域模式内部大尺度系统的误差随积分时间增长有关。(3)典型个例分析显示,最优方案在较好订正低层风场及切变线动力条件的基础上,经过数值模式各物理过程的协同积分也修正了高湿区等关键热力因子,最终改进了高分辨率区域模式的梅雨模拟。     

江苏省区域发展空间结构研究

沿沪宁线高新技术产业带、沿江基础产业带和沿东陇海加工产业带是江苏省区域发展三大重点轴线,简称为"三沿"."三沿"战略对江苏省区域发展起到重要的作用,但它存在着一定的问题,它忽视了省内南北之间的协调发展,同时,没有将全省发展置于长三角一体化之中.基于这样考虑,作者提出"一圈五轴"的发展战略,并提出整合资源、跨江联动、突出沿江轴线的可持续性,提升沿沪宁轴线高新技术创新能力,重视对沿海轴线的开发,加快发展东陇海和内陆轴线开发等重要建议.     

区域产业升级理论评价和升级目标层次论建构

产业升级相关文献综述表明,区域产业升级具有丰富的理论含义.产业结构升级研究寻求对产业宏观结构比例的统计学意义上的优化;产业地域分工思路则考察产业分布演进的空间格局及其升级含义;企业升级思路则细化到产业内部,指出企业创新以获得更高附加值是产业升级的根本;集群研究则注意到区域产业发展的整体特征,并指出了推动产业集聚、产业联系与创新等升级含义.中国集群实践更进一步验证了集群层面集体效率的提升以及企业发展环境的和谐共进(区域发展目标)也是影响产业升级的重要方面.在讨论产业升级的经济维度与空间维度、个体层面与系统层面的基础上重新构建区域产业发展的理论框架,认为企业升级、集群升级和区域和谐3个层次构成了区域产业升级的3个目标层次,其相互衔接与互动对于区域产业发展具有重要意义.     

基于交通网络空间权重的区域经济空间相关分析——以甘肃省为例

在区域经济中,交通是联系地理空间和区域经济活动的纽带,交通的发达程度决定了各地理单元空间相互作用的广度与深度.针对不同交通模式赋以不同的权重,基于最短加权交通网络,提出新的空间权重矩阵构建方法,构建了交通网络空间权重,与各种传统空间权重一起,对比研究甘肃省各县域单元之间的区域经济的空间相关性.研究结果表明,利用交通网络空间权重生成的空间权重矩阵,能更真实地反映区域间实际的空间过程;甘肃省的区域经济具有空间相关性但不显著,核心城市经济外溢现象不明显.     

CWRF对青藏高原气温和降水模拟效果的综合评估

利用CWRF(Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model)对中国区域气候的31 a多物理集合模拟试验,分析了该模式对青藏高原气温和降水的模拟效果及其对水平分辨率和物理过程参数化方案的敏感性.结果表明:1)CWRF降尺度全面改善了全球模式对高原气温和降水的模拟,使气温年循...     

城市网络外部性研究述评

城市网络研究已成为国际上城市研究的前沿学术领域并渐成热点,外部性作为城市网络的本质属性,对城市网络的演化及城市与区域的发展均具有重要意义.论文从集聚外部性与网络外部性比较的视角切入,重点对城市网络外部性形成机理、效用和测度方法等方面的研究进展进行梳理和评述.其中,协同效应、整合效应和规模借用被认为是城市网络外部性形成的...     

2022年1月8日门源6.9级地震山东地震台网测定面波震级对比分析

通过对山东地震台网记录的2022年1月8日门源M_S 6.9地震原始波形进行分析,测算出88个测震台站的M_S、M_S7、M₍S(BB))等3种面波震级,并与中国地震台网速报和青海区域地震台网编目测定结果进行对比分析。结果表明：①山东地震台网测定门源M_S 6.9地震的面波震级M_S、M_S7、M₍S(BB))分别为7.20、7.16、6.96;②M₍S(BB))震级的测定方法简单,不同台站之间的偏差较小,一致性较好,适合在地震台网的地震速报中使用。这与震级国家标准GB 17740—2017的规定相一致。     

协调大集合模拟下全球海表面温度对北极对流层早冬增暖的影响

本文使用六个不同的最新大气模式进行了协调数值集合实验,评估和量化了全球海表面温度(SST)对1982-2014年冬季早期北极变暖的影响.本研究设计了两组实验:在第一组(EXP1)中,将OISSTv2逐日变化的海冰密集度和SST数据作为下边界强迫场;在第二组(EXP2)中,将逐日变化的SST数据替换为逐日气候态.结果表明...     

Climate change and coral reef bleaching: An ecological assessment of long-term impacts,recovery trends and future outlook

Since the early 1980s, episodes of coral reef bleaching and mortality, due primarily to climate-induced ocean warming, have occurred almost annually in one or more of the world's tropical or subtropical seas. Bleaching is episodic, with the most severe events typically accompanying coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which result in sustained regional elevations of ocean temperature. Using this extended dataset (25+ years), we review the short- and long-term ecological impacts of coral bleaching on reef ecosystems, and quantitatively synthesize recovery data worldwide. Bleaching episodes have resulted in catastrophic loss of coral cover in some locations, and have changed coral community structure in many others, with a potentially critical influence on the maintenance of biodiversity in the marine tropics. Bleaching has also set the stage for other declines in reef health, such as increases in coral diseases, the breakdown of reef framework by bioeroders, and the loss of critical habitat for associated reef fishes and other biota. Secondary ecological effects, such as the concentration of predators on remnant surviving coral populations, have also accelerated the pace of decline in some areas. Although bleaching severity and recovery have been variable across all spatial scales, some reefs have experienced relatively rapid recovery from severe bleaching impacts. There has been a significant overall recovery of coral cover in the Indian Ocean, where many reefs were devastated by a single large bleaching event in 1998. In contrast, coral cover on western Atlantic reefs has generally continued to decline in response to multiple smaller bleaching events and a diverse set of chronic secondary stressors. No clear trends are apparent in the eastern Pacific, the central-southern-western Pacific or the Arabian Gulf, where some reefs are recovering and others are not. The majority of survivors and new recruits on regenerating and recovering coral reefs have originated from broadcast spawning taxa with a potential for asexual growth, relatively long distance dispersal, successful settlement, rapid growth and a capacity for framework construction. Whether or not affected reefs can continue to function as before will depend on: (1) how much coral cover is lost, and which species are locally extirpated; (2) the ability of remnant and recovering coral communities to adapt or acclimatize to higher temperatures and other climatic factors such as reductions in aragonite saturation state; (3) the changing balance between reef accumulation and bioerosion; and (4) our ability to maintain ecosystem resilience by restoring healthy levels of herbivory, macroalgal cover, and coral recruitment. Bleaching disturbances are likely to become a chronic stress in many reef areas in the coming decades, and coral communities, if they cannot recover quickly enough, are likely to be reduced to their most hardy or adaptable constituents. Some degraded reefs may already be approaching this ecological asymptote, although to date there have not been any global extinctions of individual coral species as a result of bleaching events. Since human populations inhabiting tropical coastal areas derive great value from coral reefs, the degradation of these ecosystems as a result of coral bleaching and its associated impacts is of considerable societal, as well as biological concern. Coral reef conservation strategies now recognize climate change as a principal threat, and are engaged in efforts to allocate conservation activity according to geographic-, taxonomic-, and habitat-specific priorities to maximize coral reef survival. Efforts to forecast and monitor bleaching, involving both remote sensed observations and coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models, are also underway. In addition to these efforts, attempts to minimize and mitigate bleaching impacts on reefs are immediately required. If significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved within the next two to three decades, maximizing coral survivorship during this time may be critical to ensuring healthy reefs can recover in the long term.