Integrating diverse methods to understand climate-land interactions in East Africa

The questions of how land use change affects climate, and how climate change affects land use, require examination of societal and environmental systems across space at multiple scales, from the global climate to regional vegetative dynamics to local decision making by farmers and herders. It also requires an analysis of causal linkages and feedback loops between systems. These questions and the conceptual approach of the research design of the Climate-Land Interaction Project (CLIP) are rooted in the classical human-environment research tradition in Geography.This paper discusses a methodological framework to quantify the two-way interactions between land use and regional climate systems, using ongoing work by a team of multi-disciplinary scientists examining climate-land dynamics at multiple scales in East Africa. East Africa is a region that is undergoing rapid land use change, where changes in climate would have serious consequences for people’s livelihoods, and requiring new coping and land use strategies. The research involves exploration of linkages between two important foci of global change research, namely, land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change. These linkages are examined through modeling agricultural systems, land use driving forces and patterns, the physical properties of land cover, and the regional climate. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are being used to illustrate a diverse pluralism in scientific discovery.     

Pervasive wetland flooding in the glacial drift prairie of North Dakota (USA)

This article describes a unique flood hazard, produced by the dramatic expansion of wetlands in Nelson County, located within the North American Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. There has been an unprecedented increase in the number, average size, and permanence of prairie wetlands, and a significant increase in the size of a closed lake (Stump Lake) due to a decade-long wet spell that began in 1993 following a prolonged drying trend. Base-line land cover information from the 1992 USGS National Land Cover Characterization dataset, and a Landsat TM scene acquired 9 July 2001 are used to assess the growth of the closed lake and wetland pond surface areas, and to analyze the type and area of various land cover classes inundated between 1992 and 2001. The open water profile in Nelson County changed from one marked by relatively comparable coverage of closed lake and wetland pond areas in 1992, to one in which wetland open water accounted for the vast majority of total open water in 2001. The bulk of the wetland pond area expansion occurred by displacing existing wetland vegetation and agricultural cropland. Producers responded to the flood hazard by filing Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) claims and enrolling cropland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), a federal land retirement program. Land taken out of agricultural production has had an enormous impact upon the agricultural sector that forms the economic base of the rural economy. In 2001 the land taken out of production due to CRP enrollment and preventive planting claims represented nearly 42% of Nelson County’s 205.2 K ha base agricultural land. The patterns obtained from this detailed study of Nelson County are likely to be the representative of the more publicized flood disaster occurring within the Devils Lake Basin of North Dakota.     

Linkages between Alaskan sockeye salmon abundance, growth at sea, and climate, 1955–2002

We tested the hypothesis that increased growth of salmon during early marine life contributed to greater survival and abundance of salmon following the 1976/1977 climate regime shift and that this, in turn, led to density-dependent reductions in growth during late marine stages. Annual measurements of Bristol Bay (Bering Sea) and Chignik (Gulf of Alaska) sockeye salmon scale growth from 1955 to 2002 were used as indices of body growth. During the first and second years at sea, growth of both stocks tended to be higher after the 1976–1977 climate shift, whereas growth during the third year and homeward migration was often below average. Multiple regression models indicated that return per spawner of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon and adult abundance of western and central Alaska sockeye salmon were positively correlated with growth during the first 2 years at sea and negatively correlated with growth during later life stages. After accounting for competition between Bristol Bay sockeye and Asian pink salmon, age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon increased after the 1976–1977 regime shift, then decreased after the 1989 climate shift. Late marine growth and age-specific adult length of Bristol Bay salmon was exceptionally low after 1989, possibly reducing their reproductive potential. These findings support the hypothesis that greater marine growth during the first 2 years at sea contributed to greater salmon survival and abundance, which in turn led to density-dependent growth during later life stages when size-related mortality was likely lower. Our findings provide new evidence supporting the importance of bottom-up control in marine ecosystems and highlight the complex dynamics of species interactions that continually change as salmon grow and mature in the ocean.     

小波气候突变的检测--应用范围及应注意的问题

气候突变及其检测是气候变化研究的一个重要方面。气候突变的表现多种多样,目前也有许多检测气候突变的方法,但这些方法能否准确地检测出气候突变现象,他们的适用范围如何,是一个值得注意的问题。研究表明,尽管小波分析方法在检测序列突变方面具有严格的数学意义,但因为其检测到的是序列的均值突变,因此,在应用于气候突变的检测方面应该特别注意,数学上的严格并不等同于气候意义上的严格。因为某些情况下有些突变点并没有一定的气候意义。     

Seasonally Hypersaline Estuaries in Mediterranean-climate Regions

Data collected in three Californian estuaries indicate that hypersaline conditions exist during the dry summers typical of a Mediterranean climate. The generalised seasonal and longitudinal hydrographic structures are described and explained. It is argued that this seasonal hypersalinity is common and that it represents a major class of estuaries. The observed accumulation of salt indicates surprisingly long residence times in small basins which have free exchange with the ocean. This semi-isolation of the inner basin leads to a large build-up or severe depletion of nutrients, pollutants and plankton in these systems. Of concern are the trends to increase pollutant loading in the same systems that are experiencing an increase in residence times owing to freshwater extraction in the watershed.     

冰心中的气候环境记录与全球变化研究

冰心是高分辨地记录全球变化的主要信息载体之一。本文总结了冰心中提取古气候和古环境信息的系列记录，包括同位素、微量气体、阴阳离子、微粒、生物和有机质等。着重讨论了由这些记录提取的古气候和古环境变化方面的研究进展，并提出了今后的研究重点。     

宁镇地区的限制性断层

宁镇山脉的褶皱带被一系列横断层分割为褶断段。横断层相邻的断块,无论是褶皱的形态、纵断层的数目、规模和断距等特征沿纵向跨越横断层均存在不连续性的跃变,表明这些横断层是早于褶皱或与之伴生的纵断层而存在,并对各断块内发育的地质构造起到限制作用。因横断层作为较早的边界,后期的挤压在被分割的各块段内可以是有差异的,导致宁镇褶皱带在总体上的一致性,分段上的有特殊性。     

北仑港区宁波组晚大理冰期气候特征

以往认为宁波组沉积时期的古气候为寒冷干燥或冷凉干燥。本文依据北仑B_(12)孔的孢粉资料,阐明在这一冷期中曾有一次相对较暖的气候波动,据此又可分冷凉—温和—温凉三个阶段,湿度以略湿为主。此外,还讨论了本区在晚大理冰期温度、湿度的变化特点。