集成奇异谱分析和自回归滑动平均预测日本近海海平面变化

本文从日本沿岸选取了28个验潮站及联测的GPS站,利用奇异谱分析（Singular Spectrum Analysis,SSA）和SSA+自回归滑动平均（Auto Regression Moving Average,ARMA）方法预测了2014—2018年的近海海平面变化和地壳垂直变化.并用同时段的验潮及GPS的实际测量值进行验证,结果显示,SSA+ARMA预测的相对海平面精度为0.0357~0.0607 m,地壳垂直运动的精度为0.0049~0.0077 m,绝对海平面的精度为0.0433~0.0683 m,且三者SSA+ARMA的预测结果均优于只用SSA预测的结果.在此基础上本文利用SSA+ARMA预测了日本沿岸2019—2023年的近海绝对海平面变化,结果显示,2019—2023年的平均海面高较往年（2014—2018）升高0.0353 m,2003—2023年绝对海平面的变化率为0.0039 m·a^-1,预测结果较为理想.     

A climatic dataset of ocean vertical turbulent mixing coefficient based on real energy sources

Using data on wind stress, significant height of combined wind waves and swell, potential temperature, salinity and seawater velocity, as well as objectively-analyzed in situ temperature and salinity, we established a global ocean dataset of calculated wind- and tide-induced vertical turbulent mixing coefficients. We then examined energy conservation of ocean vertical mixing from the point of view of ocean wind energy inputs, gravitational potential energy change due to mixing (with and without artificially limiting themixing coefficient), and K-theory vertical turbulent parameterization schemes regardless of energy inputs. Our research showed that calculating the mixing coefficient with average data and artificial limiting the mixing coefficient can cause a remarkable lack of energy conservation, with energy losses of up to 90% and changes in the energy oscillation period. The data also show that wind can introduce a huge amount of energy into the upper layers of the Southern Ocean, and that tidesdo so in regions around underwater mountains. We argue that it is necessary to take wind and tidal energy inputs into account forlong-term ocean climate numerical simulations. We believe that using this ocean vertical turbulent mixing coefficient climatic dataset is a fast and efficient method to maintain the ocean energy balance in ocean modeling research.     

2011年盈江5.8级地震热辐射亮温异常分析

使用从2010年1月12日至2012年1月11日,在(20°～30°N,93°～ 103°E)范围内由中国静止气象卫星FY-2E观测的热红外遥感亮温资料,对2011年3月10日盈江5.8级地震周边地区的热红外亮温异常特征进行了研究.结果表明:从2011年3月初开始在盈江5.8级地震震中周围开始出现相对能谱异常,之后异常区域逐渐扩大并向震中区域集中,并于3月中下旬在震中偏西地区形成片状异常区域,相对能谱最大异常幅度达13倍,随后异常区域和幅度逐渐减小,地震发生后数天异常消失.     

近磁尾TC-1观测到伴随有高速流的ULF波及不稳定性分析

2004年8月3日近地TC-1卫星在磁尾X_GSM~－12R_E的等离子体片内,观测到了伴随着高速流的低于离子回旋频率的波,即超低频波(ULF,Ultra Low Frequency).该波垂直分量的振幅在高速流及其振荡减速期间大致相当;而平行分量振幅在高速流时明显大于其振荡减速时. 利用一个扰动双流模型对完全磁化离子横场漂移驱动的电磁不稳定性计算后,预测结果表明:(1)对于垂直分量来说,横场漂移速度与Alfvén速度的比值影响不稳定性增长率和激发波频率,随其比值增加,增长率变大,激发波频率从负值增加到正值.(2)对于平行分量来说,温度各向异性时等离子体热速度与Alfvén速度比值只影响不稳定性增长率和激发波频率,未改变不稳定性模类别;而温度各向同性时离子横场漂移速度与Alfvén速度比值既影响不稳定性模的种类及其分支,又影响激发波频率.进一步将卫星观测到的等离子体密度、温度、整体流速和磁场代入模型方程,进行数值计算与上述预测结果对比后发现:卫星观测中垂直分量的功率谱密度(PSD,Power Spectrum Density)增强时间和频段与理论模型中由β_//、β_⊥和v_⊥/V_A引起不稳定性激发的波一致;卫星观测中平行分量的功率谱密度增强时间与理论模型基本相符,但是前者的频率明显地低于后者.因此,除了需考虑平行磁场的离子整体流速对不稳定性激发波频率的可能影响,还需要统计上进一步核实伴随有高速流的ULF波与不稳定性的相关性.     

A procedure for simulating synthetic accelerograms compatible with correlated and conditional probabilistic response spectra

The modeling of seismic load is a major topic that has to be addressed thoroughly in the framework of performance based seismic analysis and design. In this paper, a simple procedure for simulating artificial earthquake accelerograms matching the statistical distribution of response spectra, as given by median ground motion prediction equations, the standard deviation and correlation coefficients, is proposed. The approach follows the general ideas of the (natural) ground motion selection algorithms proposed by Baker [4] and Wang [43] but using simulated (artificial) “spectrum-compatible” accelerograms. This allows to simulate spectrum-compatible accelerograms featuring variability similar to the one of recorded accelerograms when the match of median and ±1 standard-deviation response spectra is imposed by the regulator. The procedure is illustrated by an application to the NGA ground motion data and models.     

Artificial ground motion compatible with specified peak velocity and target spectrum

In this paper, a method, which synthesizes the artificial ground motion compatible with the specified peak velocity as well as the target acceleration response spectrum, was proposed. In this method, firstly, an initial acceleration time history α8^（0） （t）, which satisfies the prescribed peak ground acceleration, the target spectral acceleration ST（ω, ζ）,and the specified intensity envelope, is generated by the traditional method that generates the requency domain; secondly,α8^（0） （t）is further modulated by superimposing narrow-band time histories upon it in the time domain to make its peak velocity, approach the target peak ground velocity, and at the same time to improve its fitting precision to the target spectrum. Numerical examples show that this algorithm boasts high calculation precisions.     

Site Response and Earthquake Design Spectra for Central Khartoum, Sudan

Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, is located at the confluence of White and Blue Niles. The city is heavily populated. Central Khartoum with its high-rise buildings is the center of governmental and business activities and is located on a strip adjacent to the Blue Nile. Geological and geotechnical data indicate that the subsoil conditions at Central Khartoum are characterized by alluvial deposits underlain by Nubian Sandstone at a depth of 25 m. The alluvial deposits, locally known as Gezira formations, consist of clays grading into silt and sand with depth. Macro seismic zonation of Sudan and its vicinities, developed by the authors, gave the ground acceleration at the bedrock surface. The effect of alluvial deposits in Central Khartoum on propagation of seismic motion parameters to the ground surface is investigated in this study. Correlations are proposed for pertinent cyclic soil properties such as shear modulus, damping, and shear wave velocity. The Equivalent-Linear Earthquake Response Analyses (EERA) Model was used to study the effect of local soil conditions on ground-motion parameters. In the absence of strong-motion records in Khartoum, available worldwide strong-motion records are used. Plots showing the time histories of ground motion parameters at the ground surface are obtained. The results indicate amplification of ground motion of up to 4.93. The predicted fundamental period of soils is about 0.5 s which is typical for these types of soils. The maximum spectral acceleration varied from 0.76 to 0.95 g. For design purposes, a response spectrum curve is proposed.     

Seismic interaction in linearly connected electrical substation equipment

An electrical substation consists of a complex set of equipment items that are interconnected through conductor buses or cables. If the connections are not sufficiently flexible, significant dynamic interaction may occur between the connected equipment items during a seismic excitation. This interaction is believed to be responsible for some of the observed substation equipment damage in recent earthquakes. This paper investigates the interaction between two equipment items connected by a linear spring‐dashpot or spring‐dashpot‐mass element representing a conductor bus. It is found that the interaction between the two equipment items may significantly amplify the response of the higher‐frequency equipment item. The influences of various key parameters on the interaction effect are quantified. Means for reducing the adverse interaction effect are described. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A consistent derivation of the wave-energy equation from basic hydrodynamic principles

Based on a decomposition of the velocity into mean flow, turbulent and wave components, momentum and hereafter a wave-energy equation is derived. It contains a turbulent energy dissipation term which is closed by applying a wave-related mixing length model and linear wave theory solutions. This closure produces a non-linear turbulent wave-energy dissipation including the wave energy in a 5/2 power law. The theory is able to predict correctly the shape of deep-water wave spectra according to Phillips' similarity law.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Simulation of artificial random field considering the temporal-spatial variation

Introduction For the seismic design of special structures such as nuclear power station, marine platform, long-span bridge and dam, generally the time-history response analysis of the structure under seismic excitation is imperative, which was coded in most seismic design codes. The earthquake records suitable for the seismic situation and site condition are necessary to be used as the seismic input in the dynamic analysis of structures. As a result of the limited observational condition of st…