Box-Cox正态转换在长江子流域极端降水气候事件判定中的应用

利用1961-2017年长江流域700个气象站点逐月降水资料计算长江流域9个子流域面雨量,采用基于Box-Cox正态分布转换后的百分位法对长江流域不同时间长度的极端降水气候事件阈值进行界定。结果表明,在数据序列长度发生变化的情况下,面雨量序列经Box-Cox正态转换后,计算得到的极端降水气候事件阈值的变化相较于常规百分位法明显减小,具有更为稳健的特性,从而使得相应极端降水气候事件个例的挑选更为稳定。根据该方法得到的阈值,对2018年汛期(6-8月)长江各子流域极端降水气候事件进行判定,岷沱江流域发生了极端多雨气候事件,而长江干流重庆-宜昌段、汉江及中游干流区间发生了极端少雨气候事件。     

库水位升降联合降雨作用下库岸边坡中的浸润线研究

库岸边坡中的地下水对其稳定性有重大影响,目前还没有统一的公式用来计算岸坡中的浸润线。为此,建立隔水底板呈缓倾角的均质岸坡模型,采用稳定渗流情况下的浸润线作为非稳定渗流的初始值,推导出库水位升降联合降雨作用下该模型中浸润线的近似解析解。利用Geo-Slope中的SEEP/W程序,对浸润线的近似解析解进行验证分析,结果表明,在不同库水位升降和降雨的组合条件下,由近似解析解确定的浸润线与数值模拟结果基本一致。对库水位升降联合降雨作用下赵树岭滑坡中的浸润线进行研究,利用实测浸润线验证了近似解析解的正确性,并预测了赵树岭滑坡在快速蓄水、快速蓄水＋暴雨、快速泄水及快速泄水＋暴雨4种工况下（库水位波动范围为145～175 m）浸润线的变化情况。最后,从解析解的适用条件出发剖析了近似解析解误差产生的原因,为应用浸润线解析解解决实际问题提供依据。     

多种空间检验方法在不同分辨率模式降水预报评估中的应用

利用单一的客观评估方法并不能有效揭示预报误差来源。利用逐小时5 km格点融合降水产品,本研究使用了多种客观评估方法综合评估了南京大学2016年夏季汛期试验4 km与12 km WRF模式。整体上,两种分辨率都能成功地预报主雨带,4 km WRF在午后对流及复杂地形预报上更优。比较了各类客观评估方法,邻域法显示4 km WRF预报准确性更高,但对于强降水(≥13 mm·(6 h)^-1),两种模式预报的空间误差都较大。尺度分离法显示,对于小尺度系统,4 km WRF能较好再现对流但存在较大位置误差,而12 km WRF则漏报。MODE法(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)显示4 km WRF在对象强度预报上更接近观测,但强度和范围偏大,导致华南偏强,而范围偏小造成江淮偏弱,12 km WRF低估主要是漏报。不同评估方法能清晰展示4 km WRF和12 km WRF预报误差的差异,为后续模式改进提供了重要参考。     

江西持续性强降雨的气候特征及其大尺度环流背景

利用常规气象站每6 h一次的降水资料和National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final operational analysis (FNL)资料,运用局地经向环流诊断方程对2010年6月17—20日江西的罕见持续性暴雨的两阶段降雨过程作了定量诊断分析,结果表明：潜热加热是造成两阶段暴雨最为重要的原因,且在第二阶段激发的上升运动明显强于第一阶段;经向温度平流、经向西风动量平流和边界条件对两阶段暴雨过程都有一定的正贡献;平均温度垂直输送和纬向西风动量平流在第一阶段为负贡献,在第二阶段转为正贡献。结合对应天气形势分析发现：500 hPa青藏高原东南侧浅槽的生成、东移、加深,与减弱东南移的切断低涡合并形成东北西南走向的深厚低压槽（暴雨区位于槽前）是第二阶段潜热加热激发的上升运动较第一阶段强的主要原因;高空西风急流出口区（入口）反气旋切变侧的辐合下沉（辐散抽吸）是平均西风动量纬向平流在第一（二）阶段中为（负）正贡献的主要原因;平均温度由低层向高层（高层向低层）输送是造成平均温度垂直输送在第一（二）阶段中为负（正）贡献的主要原因;中低层暖平流激发的上升运动是平均温度平流在两阶段降雨过程中起正贡献的主要原因。

     

Advanced use into rainfall prediction of three-dimensionally scanning radar

A computational method for the determination of rainfall distribution for applications in short term rainfall prediction is presented here. The method is strongly influenced by the experience gained from the observation and analysis of data gathered on a heavy rainfall event in 1986 that occurred during the Baiu Season in Japan. The method is based on the concept that rainfall occurs as an interaction between an instability field, appropriately modeled, and a field of water vapor under the influence of topography. The results from this computational method showed good agreement with the temporal variation in the rainband that moved across the observation field in 1986. Towards determination of the parameters in the computational model, another method for the determination of the rainfield is also developed. This second method determines the rainfall distribution from estimation of the conversion rate of water vapor to liquid water through use of data from a three dimensional scanning radar. The results are consistent with those obtained from the first method.     

1991年北半球夏季风及江淮流域降雨量的低频振荡

根据１９９１年５－８月江淮特大暴雨资料，使用功率谱和带通滤波结合的方法，研究了１９９１年夏季风和江淮梅雨的准周期振荡，探索季风对异常梅雨的影响。分析指出，１９９１年北半球夏季风活动，江淮流域湿度场和降雨量变化均存在显著的准２４天周期振荡，夏季风的周期振荡，主要表现在西南季风（东南季风不明显），它的位相比降雨量提前２－４左右，其振幅大小较好地反映了降雨量的大小。     

东亚梅雨锋暴雨研究进展

对梅雨锋的大尺度环流、梅雨锋的次天气尺度和中尺度特征、梅雨锋低空急流和暴雨发展等问题的研究进展作了概述，对低空急流和暴雨发展的各种观点进行了评述，并提出了新的见解和研究结果。     

Regional variability in relationships between climate and dengue/DHF in Indonesia

Since 1970, the worldwide distribution, frequency and intensity of epidemics of dengue and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) have increased dramatically. In Indonesia, as elsewhere, the geographic distribution and behaviour of the two main vectors – Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus – and the consequent transmission dynamics of the disease are strongly influenced by climate. Monthly incidence data were examined in relation to monthly data for temperature, rainfall, rainfall anomalies, humidity and the Southern Oscillation Index for 1992–2001. Focusing on eight provinces, significant Pearson correlations were observed between dengue/DHF incidence and at least one climate variable ( r  = ±0.2 to ±0.43; P  < 0.05). Multiple regression analyses showed that 12.9–24.5 per cent of variance in incidence was explained by two or three climate variables in each province ( P  < 0.1–0.01). Rainfall appears to be the principal climatic agent affecting the geographic distribution and temporal pattern of incidence while temperature appears to play a critical role in outbreak intensity. Wide regional and temporal variations in the strength and nature of the observed associations led to the identification of three groups of provinces where increases in dengue/DHF incidence were variously associated with increased rainfall, decreased rainfall and/or high susceptibility to climate variability. Although climatic factors play an important role in explaining the timing and intensity of dengue/DHF outbreaks, a wide range of other factors specific to local environments also appear to be involved – information that may assist in the prediction and mitigation of regional dengue/DHF outbreaks.     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.