2016年11月大气环流和天气分析

2016年11月大气环流特征如下,北半球极涡呈双极型分布;欧亚中高纬乌拉尔山地区为一高压脊控制,西西伯利亚地区为一较强横槽,我国中高纬纬向环流较平直,处于宽广的位势高度负距平区,西太平洋副热带高压位置偏西偏强,南支槽平均位置位于90°E 附近。11月全国平均降水量30.6 mm,较常年同期（19 mm）偏多61%,共出现4次较强降水过程;江南及华南地区雨日多雨量大。全国有14站发生了极端连续降水日数事件,71站日降水量超过当地11月历史同期极大值。11月全国平均气温为2.9℃,与常年同期持平。共有4次较强冷空气过程,造成我国180站发生了极端日降温事件,其中30站日降温突破历史极值。11月出现4次大范围严重雾 霾天气过程。此外,西北太平洋和菲律宾南海有三个台风生成,对我国影响较小。     

Flood forecasting in Niger-Benue basin using satellite and quantitative precipitation forecast data

Availability of reliable, timely and accurate rainfall data is constraining the establishment of flood forecasting and early warning systems in many parts of Africa. We evaluated the potential of satellite and weather forecast data as input to a parsimonious flood forecasting model to provide information for flood early warning in the central part of Nigeria. We calibrated the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model using rainfall data from post real time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi satellite Precipitation Analysis product (TMPA). Real time TMPA satellite rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were tested for flood forecasting. The implication of removing the systematic errors of the satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) was explored. Performance of the rainfall-runoff model was assessed using visual inspection of simulated and observed hydrographs and a set of performance indicators. The forecast skill was assessed for 1–6 days lead time using categorical verification statistics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), Frequency Of Hit (FOH) and Frequency Of Miss (FOM). The model performance satisfactorily reproduced the pattern and volume of the observed stream flow hydrograph of Benue River. Overall, our results show that SREs and rainfall forecasts from weather models have great potential to serve as model inputs for real-time flood forecasting in data scarce areas. For these data to receive application in African transboundary basins, we suggest (i) removing their systematic error to further improve flood forecast skill; (ii) improving rainfall forecasts; and (iii) improving data sharing between riparian countries.     

北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量的关系

本文应用奇异值分解方法给出同期和前期北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量相互匹配的空间典型分布型．分析结果表明，无论同期还是前期北太平洋海温与福建后汛期降水量之间均存在着清晰的遥相关．同期的赤道中东太平洋海温异常增高、日本以东洋面海温偏低，福建后汛期降水量偏少；另外，闽南地区后汛期降水量与同期NINO西海区和黑潮海区的海温成正相关关系．冬、春季出现厄尔尼诺现象时，次年福建尤其是闽南沿海后汛期降水量将偏少．     

登陆珠江三角洲热带气旋暴雨的中尺度特征

利用逐时雨量分布图，对登陆珠江三角洲的热带气旋暴雨中尺度特征进行分类、对比和合成分析。实际资料证实了大范围的热带气旋暴雨是由若干中尺度雨团、雨带造成的，纯热带气旋环流形成的中尺度雨团、雨带具有与热带气旋云带大体一致的分布特征；有冷空气与之配合时，热带气旋环流北缘形成东西向的中尺度雨带；热带气旋登陆后的３ｈ可能出现最大中尺度雨团；随热带气旋环流的填塞减弱，中尺度而团也逐渐减弱消失；山地对中尺度雨团的移动起阻滞加强作用，有利的地形与暖湿气流配合，将激发生成新的中尺度雨带。     

福建省近50a降水趋势及区域变化特征

本文应用趋势分析方法分析了福建省35个代表站1961～2003年年、季降水的变化规律．结果表明全年、春季、夏季全省降水以正的趋势为主，而雨季降水以负趋势为主，秋冬季趋势不明显．其后应用旋转主因子分析方法对年、季降水进行区域性分析，结果表明全省降水变化主要以南北向变化为主，东西向为次，同时给出了各季具体的分区范围．最后选取4个代表站进行降水的年代际变化分析．     

舟山市一次冬季暴雨、大风天气过程分析

应用卫星云图、常规观测资料及T213数值分析产品,分析了2004年12月3~5日发生在浙江东部地区的暴雨和舟山市沿海的大风过程。分析结果表明:这次天气过程是由台风倒槽和冷空气及深厚的高空槽共同作用引起的;台风环流引起的东南低空急流为暴雨区输送了大量的水汽和不稳定能量;冷空气的侵入加上深厚的高空槽引起的低空辐合、中高层辐散,促使了东海低压的剧烈发展,产生了猛烈的大风。     

海洋自动监测系统设备的安装

本文简述了自动监测系统现场安装的重要性，提出了设备安装的检查，现场的准备，及设备的安装方法和注意事项。     

Impact of lithology and soil properties on abandoned dryland terraces during the early stages of soil erosion by water in south‐east Spain

Soil erosion by water in abandoned dry terraces is one of the most important environmental problems in semiarid areas, enhancing biological degradation and reducing possible resources that can be obtained. However, little is known about the effects of the types of lithology and soil properties on the early stages of soil erosion. Therefore, the main aim of this research was to assess the effect of different lithologies (marls, limestones, and metamorphic—phyllites, schists, and greywackes—materials) and soil properties on the early stages of soil erosion by water in abandoned dry terraces, compared with similar terraces still in agricultural use. Soil analyses (texture, aggregate stability, and bulk density) and 22 rainfall simulations were carried out under dry conditions. During the experiments, local inclination, vegetation and stone cover, total organic matter, and antecedent soil moisture were also quantified. The results showed that the highest soil loss (41.41 g/m² in cultivated plots and 17.05 g/m² in the abandoned plots) and runoff (3.79 L/m² in the abandoned plot) occurred on marl substrata. Marls also showed the shallowest infiltration front (9 cm) and lowest infiltration rate (4.3 cm/min). Limestones and, especially, metamorphic areas, showed a lower degree of soil erosion, higher infiltration rates, and deeper infiltration fronts.     

Bedload yields for sand‐bed streams in the Ngarradj Creek catchment,Northern Territory,Australia

Bedload yields were calculated by 39 methods at the East Tributary gauge, nine methods at Upper Swift Creek gauge and 11 methods at Swift Creek gauge in the Ngarradj Creek catchment in northern Australia. These methods involved combining various significant bedload rating curves determined for a measured bedload data set for a 4‐year period with either the hourly or daily hydrographs or flow duration curves for the same period, 1 September 1998 to 31 August 2002. Bedload ratings were both statistically significant (ρ ≤ 0.05) and explained at least 60% of the variance in bedload flux. Bias corrections were used with all methods based on log₁₀‐transformed ratings. Estimated mean annual bedload yields varied by three orders of magnitude at the East Tributary gauge and by two orders of magnitude at Upper Swift Creek and Swift Creek gauges. Hourly discharges usually produced higher estimated yields than daily discharges. The bedload rating‐flow duration curve technique overestimates yields and bias correction methods always produce even higher yields. Ratings using both immersed bedload weight and adjusted immersed bedload weight always under‐predicted yields because they contain an implicit threshold of motion condition that is at least four times greater than that predicted by Bagnold's threshold equation. Such a result questions the applicability of Bagnold's threshold equation to the Ngarradj Creek catchment. The best estimates of mean annual bedload yield at East Tributary, Upper Swift Creek and Swift Creek gauges are 600 ± 170 (SE), 1065 ± 150 and 1795 ± 270 t/year, respectively. © 2015 Commonwealth of Australia. Hydrological Processes © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.