“雨量效应”与“环流效应”:近1 ka亚澳季风区石笋和大气降水δ18O的气候意义

亚澳季风主要由东亚季风、印度季风和澳大利亚季风三部分组成。目前,该地区石笋和大气降水δ18O气候意义的最大争议在于到底反映的是降水量变化还是水汽源的变化。针对这一争议,本文选取亚澳季风区的18个大气降水站点和5个洞穴近1 ka石笋记录的δ18O数据进行对比分析,主要得到以下几点认识：1）在月时间尺度上,亚澳季风区大气降水δ18O与月降水量均呈现明显的反相关关系,数学统计结果符合"雨量效应",而实质原因是不同季节水汽源的差异。2）在年际尺度上,在东亚季风区与澳大利亚季风区大气降水δ18O的年加权平均值与年降水量的相关性并不明显,但在印度季风区呈现明显的负相关关系,说明主要受相对单一水汽源影响的印度季风区大气降水中δ18O的年际变化"雨量效应"显著;在受复合水汽源影响的东亚季风与澳大利亚季风区"雨量效应"并不显著。3）在亚澳季风影响的广大地区,各地区年际尺度的大气降水中δ18O变化趋势以及近1 ka洞穴石笋记录δ18O变化趋势均呈现相似的特征,但二者本质并不相同。印度季风区大气降水和石笋δ18O反映的是"雨量效应",但在受复合水汽源影响的东亚季风与澳大利亚季风区大气降水δ18O和石笋δ18O反映的是"环流效应"。     

太平庄井地下流体动态主要干扰因素研究

通过分析多年的观测资料，认为太平庄井地下流体动态的主要干扰因素为区域地下热水开采，其次为降雨。气压的明显变化对水位、水温也有一定干扰。区域开采造成太平庄井水位、水温同步下降，氢气测值升高；降雨导致太平庄井水位上升、水温下降。     

基于FLAC3D不同降雨速率下土洞致塌规律研究

针对桂林市临桂区岩溶塌陷易发区域,采用FLAC3D模拟不同降雨速率下的强降雨入渗过程,探究不同直径土洞在强降雨作用下的致塌规律,结果表明：（1）强降雨条件下,不同直径土洞最大位移均出现在洞顶部。降雨速率相同,洞顶竖向位移增长速率随土洞直径的增加呈整体加快的特点;加快降雨速率,竖向位移增长明显,竖向位移与土洞大小呈正相关。（2）相同降雨速率下,土洞直径增大会引起土洞底部剪切破坏区域进一步扩展。上覆土层在强降雨初期主要受到潜蚀作用,加快降雨速率,土洞底部水位剧烈波动对上覆土体产生的水击气爆成为主导作用,剪切破坏速率加快,洞趾剪切应变明显增加,当土洞直径达到3 m时,水位波动愈加剧烈,加速上覆土层破坏。（3）降雨速率的变化对土洞塑性区拓展范围具有不同程度的影响,较大直径的土洞在加快降雨速率时塑性区拓展范围明显扩大,即土洞大小、降雨速率对上覆土层稳定性具有较大的影响。研究结果为定量研究强降雨与上覆土层塌陷的关系提供了依据,对有效、合理地预警岩溶塌陷具有一定的意义。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区坡面尺度撂荒草地入渗特征影响因素试验研究

为研究黄土丘陵沟壑区多种因素对撂荒草地入渗特征的影响,采用野外自然降雨观测法,研究不同降雨特征（降雨量、平均雨强、降雨历时和最大30 min雨强（I₃₀））、土壤前期含水量、坡长（10 m、20 m、30 m、40 m和50 m）和植被盖度条件下土壤入渗特征差异,通过灰色关联度法判断影响撂荒草地入渗特征的主导因子。结果表明：①入渗量随降雨量、降雨历时和I₃₀增加而增大（R²>0.55,P<0.01）;入渗补给系数随降雨量、I₃₀和平均雨强增大而减小（R²>0.12,P<0.05）;平均入渗率随降雨强度、I₃₀增加而递增（R²>0.53,P<0.01）。②入渗量和平均入渗率随前期含水量增加而减少,入渗补给系数随之增加而增大（R²>0.13,P<0.05）。③入渗量、入渗补给系数和平均入渗率总体随坡长增加而增大（R²>0.56,P<0.01）,但在坡长30 m和40 m之间存在临界坡长。④在入渗效率较高的情况下,植被对土壤入渗的影响并不显著,降雨特征和坡长成为主导因子。     

Limitations of real-time models for forecasting river flooding from monsoon rainfall

Very intense rainfall during the southwest and northeast monsoons causes severe river flooding in India. Some traditional techniques used for real-time forecasting of flooding involve the relationship between effective rainfall and direct surface runoff, which simplifies the complex interactions between rainfall and runoff processes. There are, however, serious problems in deducing these variables in real time, so it is highly desirable to have a real-time flood forecasting model that would directly relate the observed discharge hydrograph to the observed rainfall. The storage routing model described by Baba and Hoshi (1997), Tanaka et al. (1997), and Baba et al. (2000), and a simplified version of this model, have been used to compute observed river discharge directly from observed hourly rainfall. This method has been used to study rainfall–runoff data of the Ajay River Basin in eastern India. Five intense rainfall events of this basin were studied. Our results showed that the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of discharge prediction for these five events was 98.6%, 94.3%, 86.9%, 85.6%, and 67%. The hindcast for the first two events is regarded as completely satisfactory whereas for the next two events it is deemed reasonable and for the fifth it is unsatisfactory. It seems the models will yield accurate hindcast if the rainfall is uniform over the drainage basin. When the rainfall is not uniform the performance of the model is unsatisfactory. In future this problem can, in principle, be corrected by using a weighted amount if rainfall is based upon multiple rain-gauge observations over the drainage basin. This would provide some measure of the dispersion in the rainfall. The model also seems unable to simulate flooding events with multiple peaks.     

基于人工降雨模拟试验的坡面水文连通性

为揭示降水入渗时坡面水文连通性特征以及坡度和雨强等对水文连通性的影响,研究基于人工降雨模拟试验,分别采用结构性指标径流长度（Flowlength,l_F）和功能性指标相对地表连接函数（Relative Surface Connection Function, F_RC）分析不同坡度坡面（5°、15°、25°;面积为150 cm×50 cm）在不同雨强（25 mm/h、50 mm/h、70 mm/h和86 mm/h）条件下的水文连通性。研究结果表明:坡面水文连通结构主要由l_F为0~100 mm的径流路径组成,其栅格频率高达90%以上,而l_F为100~500 mm的栅格频率为3%~8%。水文连通性的迅速发展主要集中在降水事件的开始阶段,而一定阶段以后入渗速率与地表储水速率基本持平,水文连通性呈现出较为稳定的发展趋势。坡度增大整体上有利于水文连通性的发展。5°坡面对应水文连通面积比率整体小于其他坡度。由于雨强增大到一定范围时将增加地表糙率,从而阻碍水文连通性的发展,研究中仅25 mm/h对应水文连通性明显区别于其他雨强,而其他雨强间则在多数情况下水文连通性差别较小。     

Effects of rainfall intensity fluctuations on infiltration and runoff: rainfall simulation on dryland soils,Fowlers Gap,Australia

Small plots and a dripper rainfall simulator were used to explore the significance of the intensity fluctuations (‘event profile’) within simulated rainfall events on infiltration and runoff from bare, crusted dryland soils. Rainfall was applied at mean rain rates of 10 mm/h. Fourteen simulated rainfall events each involved more than 5000 changes of intensity and included multipeak events with a 25‐mm/h peak of intensity early in the event or late in the event and an event that included a temporary cessation of rain. These are all event profiles commonly seen in natural rain but rarely addressed in rainfall simulation. A rectangular event profile of constant intensity, as commonly used in rainfall simulation experiments, was also adopted for comparative purposes. Results demonstrate that event profile exerts an important effect on infiltration and runoff for these soils and rainfall event profiles. ‘Uniform’ events of unvarying intensity yielded the lowest total runoff, the lowest peak runoff rate and the lowest runoff ratio (0.13). These parameters increased for ‘early peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.24) and reached maxima for ‘late peak’ profiles (runoff ratio 0.50). Differences in runoff ratio and peak runoff rate between the ‘uniform’ event profile and those of varying intensity were all statistically significant at p ≤ 0.01. Compared with ‘uniform’ runs, the varying intensity runs yielded larger runoff ratios and peak runoff rates, exceeding those of the ‘uniform’ events by 85%–570%. These results suggest that for small‐plot studies of infiltration and erosion, the continued use of constant rainfall intensity simulations may be sacrificing important information and misrepresenting the mechanisms involved in runoff generation. The implications of these findings for the ecohydrology of the research site, an area of contour‐aligned banded vegetation in which runoff and runon are of critical importance, are highlighted. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effective impervious area for runoff in urban watersheds

Effective impervious area (EIA), or the portion of total impervious area (TIA) that is hydraulically connected to the storm sewer system, is an important parameter in determining actual urban runoff. EIA has implications in watershed hydrology, water quality, environment, and ecosystem services. The overall goal of this study is to evaluate the application of successive weighted least square (WLS) method to urban catchments with different sizes and various hydrologic conditions to determine EIA fraction. Other objectives are to develop insights on the data selection issues, EIA fraction, EIA/TIA ratio, and runoff source area patterns in urban catchments. The successive WLS method is applied to 50 urban catchments with different sizes from less than 1 ha to more than 2000 ha in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas, USA as well as Europe, Canada, and Australia. The average, median, and standard deviation of EIA fractions for the 42 catchments with residential land uses are found to be 0.222, 0.200, and 0.113, respectively. These values for the EIA/TIA ratio in the same 42 catchments are 0.50, 0.48, and 0.21, respectively. While the EIA/TIA results indicate the importance of EIA, 95% prediction interval of the mean EIA/TIA is found to be 0.07 to 0.93, which shows that using an average value for this ratio in each land use to determine EIA from TIA in ungauged urban watersheds can be misleading. The successive WLS method was robust and is recommended for determining EIA in gauged urban catchments. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.