Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming

本文利用8个CMIP5模式的日资料,预估了RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下全球增温达1.5℃和2.0℃时西北太平洋夏季30～60天和10～20天季节内振荡(ISO)强度的变化情况.大多数模式都认为,无论增温水平或情景如何,预估结果均显示从中南半岛南部到菲律宾以东的带状区域内ISO强度增加,并且关键气象要素背景的变化会对...     

大数据时代的国土资源档案创新管理研究

在大数据时代,以广东省国土资源档案集群服务平台建设为例,以“档案数据大集中、应用系统大集群、档案服务大平台”为总体工作思路,提出了“一个中心,两个集群、三个统一、四位一体”的国土档案管理一揽予解决方案,并对基于大数据的国土资源档案知识服务进行了初步研究,为我国国土资源档案行业在大数据时代信息化建设提供极具实践意义的经验。     

ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF NON-LINEAR SOIL RESPONSE AND DYNAMIC SOIL PROPERTIES USING VERTICAL ARRAY DATA IN JAPAN

Non-linear response of the soil is investigated by comparing the spectral ratios (uphole/downhole) using weak and strong motions. Data from seven vertical arrays in Japan are analysed in this study. The frequency-dependent transfer function of soil is calculated as a ratio of the spectrum at uphole to the spectrum at downhole, considering the horizontal component of shear wave. In spectral ratio analysis auto- and cross-spectra are employed. The reduction in the predominant frequency of the transfer function with increases in excitation level reflects the non-linear response of the soil. Results of analysis demonstrate a significant non-linear ground response at six sites with surface PGA exceeding 90 gal. However, the results of one site show the linear response up to 130 gal surface PGA. Furthermore, the in situ strain-dependent soil behaviour is examined through the shear modulus – shear strain relationship. When compared, the actual and laboratory results of the shear strain – shear modulus relationship are in agreement. Additionally, a good consistency between the tendency of reduction in shear modulus ratio with shear strain increases, and reduction of predominant frequency with ground motion increases, confirms the significance of non-linearity in site effects study.     

重磁异常正反演可视化实时方法技术改进

摘 要 给出了2∙5D 多边形截面棱柱体重磁异常的简化表达式及其偏导数;提供了实用的可 视化模型建立、修改、实时正反演中的一些具体方法技术。借助这一操作方便、功能强大的 图形化实时反演系统‚资料解释工作者可以综合利用各种地质资料对计算过程实现引导和控 制‚使其解释思想及技术方案得到充分体现‚从而提高计算速度和质量。     

珠江口盆地沉降史定量模拟和分析

运用Petrosys盆地模拟系统，定量和动态地模拟了珠江口盆地三个主要坳陷的沉降过程，论述了沉降速率的变化与生储盖发育之间的关联，认为珠江口盆地构造沉降史具有幕式、多阶段变化的特征。盆地第一幕和第二幕沉降是盆地发育的主要时期，奠定了盆地的构造格架，形成了盆地主要的沉积地层和油气资源。第三幕沉降为盆地的改造和完成阶段，是盆地区域盖层发育的主要时期。     

THE PROVENANCE OF THE DHARAMSALA FORMATION

THE PROVENANCE OF THE DHARAMSALA FORMATION1　NajmanY ,GarzantiE .ReconstructingearlyHimalayantectonicevolutionandpaleogeographyfromTertiaryforelandbasinsediments,NorthernIndia[J].GSABulletin ,2 0 0 0 .inpress 2　OliverGJH ,JohnsonMRW ,FallickAE .AgeofmetamorphismintheLesserHimalayaandthemainCentralThrustzone ,GarhwalIndia :resultsofillitecrystallinity ,4 0 Ar 3 9ArfusionandK Arstudies[J].GeolMag 1995 ,132 (2 ) :139～149. 3　PognanteU ,CastelliD ,BennaP ,eta…     

基于路径的聚类分析

聚类分析的很多算法中都采用连接两点直线的欧氏距离来判断空间亲疏性,然而当有障碍物层存在时,连接两点的直线已不能完全表达它们之间的关系,特别是当有指定的交通路线时,两点之间的连通路径和距离必须遵从特定的路径.文中讨论在了障碍物或指定的交通路线存在的情况下点集的聚类分析,给出了解决有障碍物或指定交通路线时进行聚类分析的算法PathClust.     

细纱机数据采集与处理系统

论述了细纱机数据采集与处理系统的设计思想与实现方法。     

浅谈如何提高目测抓球精度

通过对使用“特征视角”目测气球方法的阐述、分析,得出提高目测抓球精度的关键在于“量化”．如果能将目标物视角的大部分测量估算工作进行量化、减小目标物视角的估测余量,就能显著地提高目测抓球精度。