Quantitative estimation presort of glacier lake outburst debris flow based on bucket effect

Glacier-lake outburst debris flow(GLODF),unique in high altitude mountains where modern glacier is active,is significantly large in its scale of time and space,and strong in power of destroy.Following the world’s becoming warmer,GLODF frequency gradually rises.In late years,quantitative estimation methodologies has been put into use of mass GLODF estimations.To improve former methodologies,this article suggests that the glacier(or the massif)on the trailing edge and the moraine dam are the two major systems providing independent glacier lake outburst possibilities.Bucket Effect exists in GLODF issues.Therefore focusing on the relatively unstable one of the above two provides better accuracy in estimation on GLODF possibility.Thus,this article summarizes method of presort through specific GLODF evaluation.     

Progress on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on cropland change

It is important to study the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes in the fields of both climate change and land use change. Relationships between cropland changes and driving forces were qualitatively studied in most of the previous researches. However, the quantitative assessments of the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes are needed to be explored for a better understanding of the dynamics of land use changes. We systematically reviewed the methods of identifying the contributions of climate change and human activities to cropland changes at quantitative aspects, including model analysis, mathematical statistical method, framework analysis, index assessment and difference comparison. Progress of the previous researches on quantitative evaluation of the contributions was introduced. Then we discussed four defects in the assessment of the contributions of climate change and human activities. For example, the methods were lack of comprehensiveness, and the data need to be more accurate and abundant. In addition, the scale was single and the explanations were biased. Moreover, we concluded a clue about quantitative approach to assess the contributions from synthetically aspect to specific driving forces. Finally, the solutions of the future researches on data, scale and explanation were proposed.     

粘性土在不同温度下龟裂的发展及其机理讨论

通过试验,研究了粘性土在不同温度下龟裂的发生和发展规律,运用计算机图像处理和编程技术,对不同温度下获得的粘性土龟裂网络的几何结构和形态特征进行了定量分析。结果表明：龟裂的发展过程可分为四个阶段,温度效应十分明显。温度越高,龟裂形貌越简单,龟裂条纹越宽,而在较低的温度下,龟裂的形貌比较复杂,龟裂条纹纤细且间距较密,表面比较破碎;从粘土矿物双电层理论对龟裂的形成机理提出了一种新的解释;在试验中还发现了一个十分有趣的现象,即大部分龟裂都呈垂直或近似垂直相交,被龟裂分割出的区块形状多以四边形为主,其它多边形较少;最后提出了龟裂研究的下一步课题。     

山区县域可持续发展定量研究

在充分认识山区县域特征的基础上,依据可持续发展思想,建立了评价山区县域可持续发展的指标体系和定量评价模型。将其应用于交口县,获得了较满意的效果。     

Construction of Green's function to the external Dirichlet boundary-value problem for the Laplace equation on an ellipsoid of revolution

Green's function to the external Dirichlet boundary-value problem for the Laplace equation with data distributed on an ellipsoid of revolution has been constructed in a closed form. The ellipsoidal Poisson kernel describing the effect of the ellipticity of the boundary on the solution of the investigated boundary-value problem has been expressed as a finite sum of elementary functions which describe analytically the behaviour of the ellipsoidal Poisson kernel at the singular point ψ = 0. We have shown that the degree of singularity of the ellipsoidal Poisson kernel in the vicinity of its singular point is of the same degree as that of the original spherical Poisson kernel. Received: 4 June 1996 / Accepted: 7 April 1997     

物候模型在气候定量重建中的应用

利用历史物候记录重建的气候变化过程为人类更准确地认识过去的气候变化特征, 识别气候变化阶段提供了帮助。本文系统总结了现有用于气候定量重建的植物物候模型, 包括统计模型和过程模型两类。统计模型不考虑植物生理生态过程, 主要是利用物候期与气象因子之间的统计关系建立回归方程; 过程模型是一种半机理性模型, 通过植物每日发育进度与环境因子的关系, 利用数学模型模拟植物的生长过程, 主要包括春季积温 (spring warming, 简称SW)模型、温度变换日数(the number of days transformed to standard temperature, 简称DTS)模型和葡萄收获日期模型等。同时, 详细介绍了上述物候模型在国内外不同地区定量重建气候中的应用, 比较了重建的效果, 总结了重建过程的不确定性; 并提出了利用植物物候模型对气候定量重建中的关键问题, 即指出在未来研究中需要更多关注如何定量重建温度外的气候因子, 同时要加强对秋季物候的观测以及秋季物候生理机制的研究, 以便更清晰阐述秋季物候变化过程, 在历史气候变化定量重建中更充分利用有关秋季资料。     

鲤鱼（Cyprinuscarpio L．）体重和体长QTL的定位

利用265个AFLP标记、127个微卫星分子标记、37个EST-SSR标记和16个RAPD标记（共445个标记）对大头鲤／荷包红鲤抗寒品系的F2代雌核发育群体44个个体进行基因型检测,构建鲤鱼（CyprinuscarpioL.）遗传连锁图谱;利用软件WinQTLCart2.5采用复合区间作图法对体重和体长两个性状进行了QTL定位分析。结果共检测到与两个与体重性状相关的QTL,分别定位到LG24连锁群（qBWh-24-1）和LG20连锁群（qBWh-20-1）上,可解释的表型变异分别为7.98％和20.05％;检测到两个与体长性状相关的QTL,分别位于LG2连锁群（qFS-2-1）和LG20连锁群（qFS-20-1）,可解释的表型变异分别为5.69％和12.69％,4个QTL的加性效应均为负值。     

西太平洋地区二叠纪海洋生物地理区系的演化

综述了作者近年来分布在西太平洋地区二叠纪５个不同时间带的腕足动物群的多维统计分析成果,分析结果表明,该地区二叠纪海相生物地理分区性受古气候带和古地理两大因素的明显控制,早二叠世早期和晚二叠世晚期,生物地理分区界线明显,易于识别,但“中二叠世”（相当于栖霞期和茅口期）由于南北出现了两个过渡生物省,即北边的中蒙生物省和南边的基墨利生物省（Ｃｉｍｍｅｒｉａｎ）生物区之间的界线变得模糊,中蒙生物省的出现表     

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Quantitative models for reconstructing catchment ice-extent using physical-chemical characteristics of lake sediments

The physical characteristics of surface sediments from a suite of pristine lakes on Signy Island, maritime Antarctic, were used to develop a quantitative link between catchment ice-extent and lake-sediment response. Percentage dry weight, median particle size, percentage loss-on-ignition and wet density of the lakes' surface sediments were the most significant variables explaining contemporary catchment ice-extent. Two independent reconstruction models – Partial Least Squares (PLS) and a Modern Analog Technique (MAT) – were applied to dated sediment cores at two sites on Signy Island. The validity of the reconstructions was tested against historical information on catchment ice-extent. With sufficiently high sedimentation rates and sampling resolution, the models can predict sub-decadal changes in ice-extent. The model results are best regarded as indicators of erosion resulting from meltwater activity in the catchment. Comparison of results with Twentieth Century climate records affirms the hypothesis that climatic warming is the most likely cause for the ice retreat observed on Signy Island during the last 40 yrs. Similar reconstruction models using these simple sedimentary measures could be developed for analogous locations in the Antarctic and in Arctic and Alpine regions.