基于多指标综合评分法筛选地表水环境优先污染物——以湖北涨渡湖为例

人类活动和社会经济迅速发展导致大量化学品排放进入地表水环境,对水生生态系统和人类健康产生诸多不利影响,如何从众多的化学品中筛选识别出具有潜在危害的优先污染物是水污染治理和管控的关键.本研究基于污染物环境暴露水平、持久性、生物累积性、生态风险和人体健康风险5个评价参数,构建多指标综合评分法定量筛选识别地表水环境优先污染物类别,并应用于涨渡湖水体中优先污染物清单的建立.污染物环境暴露水平基于靶向分析综合考虑了污染物环境实测浓度和检出频率.目标污染物持久性和生物累积性毒害性参数分别采用生物降解系数和正辛醇-水分配系数来表征.此外在物种敏感度分布法和评估因子法的基础上计算生态风险熵以定量表征生态风险,人体健康风险则由终生致癌风险指数或危害指数来表征.基于该多指标综合评分法可于涨渡湖水体7类151种特征污染物中筛查出41种优先污染物,主要包括11种多氯联苯、8种有机氯农药、6种多环芳烃、4种邻苯二甲酸酯、4种挥发性有机物和8种金属元素.鉴于不同地表水环境污染状况不同,通过多指标综合评分法可建立因地制宜的优先污染物清单,从而有利于形成以保护水生生物和人类健康为最终目标的优先污染物水质基准,为地表水环境污染物管控及治理提供方法学支撑和科学依据.     

云南45个湖泊硅藻-总磷转换函数及其定量重建评价

20世纪中期以来随着流域开发的增强,营养物质的流域输出与水体富集导致云南湖泊出现了持续的富营养化过程,对高原湖泊的生物群落构建和生态系统健康产生了重要影响。区域尺度上云南湖泊的现代监测时间较短(如<20年),无法为湖泊生态恢复提供可靠的营养水平背景值。因此,应用古湖沼学方法建立硅藻群落与营养水平指标的定量模型可为污染湖泊的富营养化历史重建与修复目标建立提供重要的定量分析手段。本文选取云南地区45个湖泊开展了表层沉积物硅藻群落的空间分布特征分析,结合湖泊水体的环境变量数据开展了影响硅藻群落构建的环境梯度识别,识别出水体总磷(TP)是驱动硅藻群落空间变化的关键环境因子(独立解释方差为4.54%,P<0.001)。进一步应用多元统计分析,建立了45个湖泊的表层沉积物硅藻与水体TP的转换函数。采用偏最小二乘加权平均回归(WA-PLS)方法建立的转换函数模型中,组分2的预测能力最强(R²_＿jack=0.465,RMSEP=0.396)。进一步结合星云湖沉积物硅藻群落的演替序列,定量重建了近百年来水体TP值的变化历史。重建结果与多年监测数据具...     

Synthetic information prediction system for crisis mine based on GIS

Reserves of some kinds of the crisis mines will be lack now or from now on, because of lacking seriously reserves of mineral resources and the crisis of exploring bases in support. So that it is urgent to predict, appraise, development and utilize the replaceable resources of the crisis mines. The mineral resources prediction software system of synthetic information is intelligent GIS which is used to quantitative prediction of large-scale synthetic information mineral target. It takes the geological body and the mineral resource body as a unit. And it analyzes the ore deposit genesis and metallotect, knows the spatial distribution laws of the ore deposit and ore body, and establish the prospecting model based on the concept of establishing the three-dimensional space of a mine. This paper will primarily discuss some important problems as follows: the secondary development of various kinds of data(including geology, geophysical prospecting, geochemical prospecting and remote sensing, etc); process synthetically and establish the synthetic information interpretative map base; correspond prospecting model with synthetic information of ore deposit; divided into statistical units of metallogenic information synthetic anomalies based on the synthetic information anomalies of ore control, then research the metallogenic information variable of unit synthetically and make quantitative prediction according to choose the quantitative prediction math model which is suitable to the demands of large-scale precision; at last, finish the target area optimization of ore deposit (body).     

膨胀土干湿循环胀缩裂隙的定量分析

为研究膨胀土在降雨与蒸发过程中的胀缩裂隙演化规律,对原状膨胀土进行干湿循环的CT扫描试验。利用Matlab软件编写程序对土体CT图进行三维体重建以及裂隙信息的提取,从定性与定量的维度研究土体三维空间裂隙与干湿循环之间的关系。定性研究发现,裂隙发育开始于土体内部初始孔洞与微纹裂等薄弱处,并扩展延伸,形成裂隙面、裂隙体,最后形成复杂的三维裂隙网络;随着干湿循环的进行,裂隙面积和体积逐渐增加,最后趋于稳定。定量研究发现,裂隙面积沿试样轴向的分布具有明显的周期性规律,随着干湿循环的进行,周期逐渐减小,振幅A先增加后减小;裂隙开展分为3个阶段,即裂隙酝酿期、裂隙快速发育期和裂隙平稳发展期,而裂隙发育主要发生在裂隙快速发育期。得出了试样径向裂隙面积、轴向高度与累计干缩体变之间的近似关系,以裂隙体积定义了符合Logistic函数变化规律的扰动函数,可以预测裂隙在试样局部的发展及分布情况,为裂隙膨胀土的渗透特性以及整体与局部的应力、应变研究提供参考。     

FPSO软刚臂单点系泊系统定量风险分析

针对FPSO软刚臂单点系泊系统出现过的系泊腿失效及背向工况风险事件,以渤海某16万吨级FPSO为例,采用数值模拟的方法,计算FPSO及单点系统在百年一遇海况下的载荷效应,通过统计学方法拟合效应的概率分布,完成定量风险分析。对于系泊腿旋转失效后的风险,使用故障假设(what-if)方法,依据失效后果判断其风险权重。计算结果表明,系泊腿结构在正常情况下受拉失效的概率很小;系泊腿纵摆失效后导致的结果比横摆失效更为严重,风险权重更大。背向工况下,船艏与YOKE的间距要明显小于顺向工况,在设计时增大二者间距可有效减小碰撞风险。     

Analysis of bycatch in the South African midwater trawl fishery for horse mackerel Trachurus capensis based on observer data

The South African midwater trawl fishery targets adult horse mackerel Trachurus capensis. The bulk of the catch is taken by a single freezer-trawler, the biggest fishing vessel operating in South African waters. As fishing takes place off the south coast in ecologically sensitive areas, there are concerns about the potential impacts of this fishing operation on non-target species. Fishing behaviour and bycatch of this fishery from 2004 to 2014 were investigated by analysing observer records with regard to catch composition, volume and temporal and spatial patterns. The midwater trawl fishery was estimated to have caught 25 415 tonnes annually, with a bycatch of 6.9% of the total catch, by weight. There are species overlaps with various fisheries, namely the demersal trawl, small-pelagic, line, shark longline and squid fisheries, yet the total bycatch estimates from this fishery are generally small relative to catches taken in the target fisheries. Bycatch species with the highest average annual catches were chub mackerel Scomber japonicus, redeye roundherring Etrumeus whiteheadi, ribbonfish Lepidopus caudatus and hake Merluccius spp. Large-fauna bycatch species included sunfish Mola mola as well as a number of CITES II- and IUCN-listed species, such as Cape fur seal Arctocephalus pusillus, dusky shark Carcharhinus obscurus, smooth hammerhead shark Sphyrna zygaena and thresher sharks Alopias spp. The 97.9% observer coverage is high and the 6.9% bycatch rate low compared to other South African fisheries; however, due to the large size of the individual hauls (average of 46.3 t), the average sampling rate of 1.56% is low. Our analyses suggest that bycatch in the South African midwater trawl fishery has been lower than in other South African fisheries and similar fisheries elsewhere, but due to the combination of high catch volumes and low sampling rates, estimation errors for rare species are high and there is a substantial risk of incidental unmonitored bycatch of rare large fauna and aggregations of small fauna. This could be mitigated by spatio-temporal management of this fishery, to avoid fishing in high-risk areas, and the introduction of an electronic monitoring programme.     

塔里木盆地塔河油田奥陶系数字岩心图像中生物扰动的定量表征*

生物扰动对塔里木盆地塔河油田奥陶系碳酸盐岩“基质储集体”储集性能的改造效应具有重要影响。以塔河油田奥陶系岩心为研究对象,利用Adobe^® Photoshop^® CS6软件提供的生物扰动数字图像分析软件包,对岩心数字图像中生物扰动区域进行了识别和定量表征。结果表明: (1)在生物扰动数字图像分析软件包提供的方法中,“相似像素选择法”和“魔棒法”是对生物扰动识别与定量表征最为有效的方法,但二者适用范围不同;(2)“相似像素选择法”适用于生物扰动程度较大,单个形体相对较小且离散度相对较高的情况:当生物扰动充填物和围岩基质边界对比度较大时,应用“选取相似”操作效果最好;而当生物扰动充填物和围岩基质边界对比度较小时,应用“色彩范围”操作识别效果最好;这2种操作都仅能执行1次;(3)“魔棒法”对于识别生物扰动区域形体大而分布连续,且充填物颜色不同的情况具有独到优势;该方法可以通过多次重复操作以及调整“容差”来提高生物扰动区域与围岩基质的识别度。该研究对从生物成因角度解释碳酸盐岩“基质储集体”的非均质性与分布规律、实现增强储集性能生物扰动属性表征、丰富海相碳酸盐岩储集层地质学理论、指导该类油气藏远景勘探和储量计算以及选择合理的开发方案等具有重要意义。     

Rock fall hazard control along a section of railway based on quantified risk

Rock falls represent a large percentage of landslide-related hazards reported by Canadian railways in mountainous terrain. A 54.7?km-long section of railway through the Canadian Cordillera is examined that experiences, on average, 18 rock falls each year. An approach for rock fall hazard management is developed based on quantified risk. The approach focuses on defining railway operation procedures (freight train operations and track maintenance) that comply with quantified risks. Weather-based criteria that define periods when rock falls are more likely to occur along the study area are examined. These criteria are used herein to reduce exposure to rock falls and reduce their consequences. Several freight train operation strategies are proposed that comply with a tolerable level of risk adopted in this study for illustrative purposes. The approach provides a simple, flexible and practical strategy for railway operations that can be regularly adopted by the operators, and that is based on a more comprehensive assessment of quantified risk.     

Quantitative failure metric for gravity dams

Quantitative failure monitoring is a critical tool for safety assessment of concrete dams. This includes damage occurrence, intensity, location, number, size, and propagation pattern. Such an assessment is essential for a quantifiable prioritization of repair and will thus reduce overall cost and improve safety. This paper will address this timely topic through the nonlinear transient analysis of a dam and failure will be ascertained through a multi‐scale damage index. A damage‐plastic model for mass concrete is used, Drucker‐Prager elasto‐plastic one for the foundation, and infinite elements are used for far‐field boundaries. Water‐dam interaction is accounted for through fluid finite elements. It is determined that the proposed damage indices can indeed provide a quantitative metric for the degree of failure in gravity dams in terms of the input dynamic motion. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于DEM-NDVI的高山植被带定量刻划

根据不同高山植被类型具有不同归一化植被指数响应的特点,通过对NDVI的分析来定量刻划高山植被带的海拔分布。首先,利用DEM、NDVI构建DEM-NDVI散点分布图;然后,结合地面调查资料与WorldView-2高分遥感影像对DEM-NDVI散点分布图进行统计回归分析;最后,利用分析结果定量刻划高山植被垂直分带结构。将该方法应用于四川卧龙大熊猫保护区的卧龙关沟,结果表明：① NDVI随海拔升高而呈“Z”字形变化;② DEM-NDVI散点图比样本点DEM-NDVI分布图能更完全地表达高山植被NDVI随高程变化的特征;③ 卧龙关沟东北坡高山植被带海拔高度为3255~4415 m,西南坡高山植被带海拔高度为3193~4473 m,与地面调查得到的区域代表植被的分布高度基本一致。