环境与健康的评估问题和空间分析

评估环境污染对人民健康影响的研究需要结合空间，时间和统计分析，并吸引不同学科背景的研究人员合作研究，可是，在这个研究领域内，最重要的问题是研究结论的不可靠性程度很高，不同的研究方法会导致不同的结论，一个有系统的研究架构拥有不同的空间分析方法将会减少结论的可疑程度，有效的环保政策是需要可靠的研究成果，文中首先介绍在环境与健康的评估研究领域的四大重要问题，指出这项研究需要这项研究需要空间分析和地理信息系统方法，从而提出一个空间分析的研究框架和内裹的方法，通过路易斯安纳州的一个污染地点和肿瘤发病率关系研究实例，指出这项研究领域的各种问题和空间分析架构的重要性。     

大连湾60多年来生态环境地质演化

依据对大连湾60多年来沉积柱的生态环境地质演化研究，发现其污染变化可以分为3个时期：①1933－1974年为洁净时段；②1974－1989年为污染较重时段；③1989－1997年为严重污染时段。若视第一时段的污染度为0，则第二时段的污染度为第一时段的8倍，第三时段的污染度为第一时段的25倍，可见污染度增加是非常迅速和严重的。其中Cd、Pb、As、S、Zn5种元素含量增加最快。1997年大连湾表面沉积物中Cd、Hg、Pb、As的含量分别为自然背景值的81．42倍、6．0倍、7．54倍、3．82倍，表明大连湾污染的严重性。研究发现自1950年以来大连湾生物多样性急剧下降，说明污染度增加已对生命健康造成严惩的影响。大连湾的臭水套已成为一个生物多样性异常低下的、超级污染的环境，是一颗巨大的隐性化学定时炸弹。     

Evolution of accelerographs, data processing, strong motion arrays and amplitude and spatial resolution in recording strong earthquake motion

This paper presents a review of the advances in strong motion recording since the early 1930s, based mostly on the experiences in the United States. A particular emphasis is placed on the amplitude and spatial resolution of recording, which both must be ‘adequate’ to capture the nature of strong earthquake ground motion and response of structures. The first strong motion accelerographs had optical recording system, dynamic range of about 50 dB and useful life longer than 30 years. Digital strong motion accelerographs started to become available in the late 1970s. Their dynamic range has been increasing progressively, and at present is about 135 dB. Most models have had useful life shorter than 5–10 years. One benefit from a high dynamic range is early trigger and anticipated ability to compute permanent displacements. Another benefit is higher sensitivity and hence a possibility to record smaller amplitude motions (aftershocks, smaller local earthquakes and distant large earthquakes), which would augment significantly the strong motion databases. The present trend of upgrading existing and adding new stations with high dynamic range accelerographs has lead to deployment of relatively small number of new stations (the new high dynamic range digital instruments are 2–3 times more expensive than the old analog instruments or new digital instruments with dynamic range of 60 dB or less). Consequently, the spatial resolution of recording, both of ground motion and structural response, has increased only slowly during the past 20 years, by at most a factor of two. A major (and necessary) future increase in the spatial resolution of recording will require orders of magnitude larger funding, for purchase of new instruments, their maintenance, and for data retrieval, processing, management and dissemination. This will become possible only with an order of magnitude cheaper and ‘maintenance-free’ strong motion accelerographs. In view of the rapid growth of computer technology this does not seem to be (and should not be) out of our reach.     

Exploring the links between health and housing: The limitations of population health surveys

While it is intuitively attractive to link health status and the quality of housing, it is methodologically complex to identify the relative importance of housing because individual characteristics and environmental variables act as confounders. A secondary issue is that the data sets which contain detailed data on health status and environmental variables often contain only limited data on housing. Similarly, housing surveys rarely contain detailed data on health and environmental variables. Respondents from Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver in the public use micro-data files of the 1996/97 cycle of the National Population Health Survey make up the data sets for a series of logistic regression models where health status, allergies, asthma, arthritis, migraines and bronchitis/emphysema act as the dependent variables. Sets of variables which measure housing, the environment (smoking and alcohol consumption) and the socio-economic status of individuals are used as independent variables. The issues of confounders and the limitations of the data are illustrated by the results of the analysis. If we are to go beyond local area surveys and carry out broader analyses of the links between health status and the quality of housing, researchers and data collection agencies will need to re-think the artificial divisions between these two critical aspects of peoples' lives.     

地下管网健康档案管理平台的设计与实现

针对地下管网隐患数据管理的应用需求,本文基于三维平台设计实现了地下管网健康档案管理平台,在三维场景加载地上精细模型和地下管网数据,以三维可视化的手段对管网各类隐患问题进行信息管理,结合二维GIS操作,实现了净距分析、覆土分析、占压分析等管线隐患分析功能,通过本平台建立的地下管网健康档案数据库,方便用户对各类管网隐患数据进行信息管理和统计,为管道病害修复、管网改造提升提供数据支撑,保证地下管网的安全运行。     

SALES TAX AS PROPERTY TAX RELIEF? THE SHIFTING ONUS OF LOCAL REVENUE GENERATION

Local governments are under pressure to develop alternative revenue sources to their already strapped property tax bases. Throughout the 1970s, municipal governments nationwide restructured their local taxes by substituing sales tax for property tax revenue. A tax accounting model identified two sources of sales-for-property tax substitution: changes in the tax rates and normal economic growth and decline. Most of the sales-for-property tax substitution experienced in Illinois city finance was attributable to economic change. The critical determinant of this substitution appreared to be the municipality's share of the regional retail market. Cities in higher density metropolitan areas were less likely to experience sales-for-property tax substitution through economic growth than those cities in lower density, less competitive environments.     

Remote structural health monitoring with serially multiplexed fiber optic acoustic emission sensors

Development and testing of a serially multiplexed fiber optic sensor system is described. The sensor differs from conventional fiber optic acoustic systems, as it is capable of sensing AE emissions at several points along the length of a single fiber. Multiplexing provides for single channel detection of cracks and their locations in large structural systems. An algorithm was developed for signal recognition and tagging of the AE waveforms for detection of crack locations. Laboratory experiments on plain concrete beams and post-tensioned FRP tendons were performed to evaluate the crack detection capability of the sensor system. The acoustic emission sensor was able to detect initiation, growth and location of the cracks in concrete as well as in the FRP tendons. The AE system is potentially suitable for applications involving health monitoring of structures following an earthquake Supported by: National Science Foundation, Grant number CMS-9900338     

Coral reef health and effects of socio-economic factors in Fiji and Cook Islands

This research focuses on coral reef health in the South Pacific region, an area of high global coral diversity. Coral reef health surrounding four island case studies in the Cook Islands and Fiji have been assessed in areas that have not been previously surveyed. This study compares four islands with barrier and fringing reefs that have different levels of economic development, population pressure, land-use practices, and marine management practices. This interdisciplinary research methodology includes both ecological and social data collection to further understanding of human environment interactions. In comparing the reefs with different socio-economic factors, this research shows that reefs with traditional systems of resources management are healthier, population pressure is not the main factor causing the demise of the reefs and agro-industry is the main industry causing the degradation of the reef in these four South Pacific Islands. In addition, researchers need to use a whole reef perspective to examine coral reef health.     

风险分析实践的感悟

考虑到我国水资源短缺、水灾害频发和水环境恶化的情势,在水利建设和管理中,突出风险意识是非常必要的和十分及时的。我们多年从事风险分析实践的感悟是：水利风险模拟分析完全不同于建筑结构物的可靠度计算,更不是模拟设计洪水的淹没范围和水深,其真谛是在于如实模拟出当地的水旱灾害的不确定性,是对传统思维模式的重大的突破。有些传统理念也有必要作调整,如：工程水文学科的内涵,可持续发展的不确定性和风险分析的风险。     

Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada

This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a “markup-free delivery” policy. Producers’ ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability.