日地水文学与灾害预测

研究地球水文变化的日地物理成因和规律的日地水文学（Solar-TerrestrialHydrology），用于水、旱灾害预测多次获得证实.本文从日地水文物理基础、长江淮河22年周期性大洪水、黄河大洪水和太阳活动关系、太阳活动双重衰减期北方大旱、17世纪日地水文异常变化、太阳活动对暴雨洪水中短期影响、台湾海峡两侧大暴雨洪水落区转移、全球最大洪水日地水文研究以及学科发展和应用前景九个方面，对中国近70多年来的主要成果加以回顾和总结.基础科学、高科技和应用紧密结合，促成对国民经济发展直接相关的新学科，是当代科学进步的一个显著标志，这里又是一个例证．     

岩浆活动对油气藏形成条件的影响

结合众多实例，总结了国内外含油地中岩浆活动对油气藏形成的影响。一方面，岩浆活动所携带的高热流可以提高古地温，加速生油岩的演化，亦将使与岩浆岩毗邻的生油岩达到高成熟或过成熟，     

The characteristics of Quaternary activity of faults in the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth

Introduction As far as the frequency and magnitude are concerned, the earthquakes in the sea area to the east of Shanghai are far more strong than in land area with the largest one in the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth being MS=436, while in land, only MS=434 occurred on Sept. 1, 1624. As a moderately strong earthquake active area, the sea area near the Yangtze River mouth, may cause a potential risk to Shanghai. In 1971 and 1996, earthquakes with MS=5~6 occurred in this area. Geo…     

区域-时间-长度算法及其在华北中强地震中短期前兆特征研究中的应用

引入并改进了区域-时间-长度算法（region-time-length algorithm），较之原来的定义更加强调了地震破裂尺度函数对VRTL的贡献，同时保证了震中距函数、时间函数及破裂尺度函数对VRTL影响的权系数相等．华北5级以上地震的回顾性预测研究结果表明，改进的RTL算法所得到的异常大多具有短期或中短期特征. 震前VRTL变化型态可分为两类:Ⅰ类具有相对完整的变化形态，大多呈现从0开始的上升——转折下降或下降——转折上升形态；Ⅱ类变化形态不完整，一般从0开始急剧上升或下降，无明显转折，主震发生在VRTL极值附近．VRTL上升表征地震活动水平相对于背景变化率的增高，意味着地震活动增强；VRTL下降则意味着地震活动相对于背景变化率的降低，在一定程度上表征了地震活动的平静．据此给出由RTL算法进行中、短期异常识别并粗略估计发震时间的方法. 该方法Ⅰ,Ⅱ类异常3个月内发震的R值评分分别为0.6及0.3左右， 6个月内的R评分分别为0.7及0.4左右．对特征时间跨度、特征距离、震级下限等对VRTL的影响, 以及其它一些实际应用中的重要问题进行了初步讨论．      

预警地震在地震预测中的意义

对新疆1970-2002年地震资料以不同范围、不同震级进行全时空扫描。结果表明，新疆台网监测能力较好地区绝大多数6级以上地震前地震活动关联图较为清晰。提出了预警地震的概念，认为预警地震在短临预报方面有一定的作用。     

青海德令哈巴音郭勒河断裂带的新活动特征

在青海德令哈巴音郭勒河北侧山前冲洪积扇上新发现了一条长约60km的逆断裂带,属于本区NNW-NWW向的柴达木盆地北缘活动断裂系内的一条次级挤压构造。断裂在地貌上表现为明显的挤压逆冲断层陡坎,晚更新世晚期以来的平均垂直滑动速率为0.41±0.27mm/a。探槽剖面确定了三次古地震事件,其年代分别为距今约32.7±1.45ka、15.54±1.32ka和3.2±0.33ka。     

川西北倒三角形断块东部区域强震带形成机制与地震活动特征

川西北倒三角形断块东部区域地处青藏高原东部边缘地带,地跨川西北高原及其与四川盆地过渡带的高山峡谷区,属我国著名的南北向地震带的中段,因其特定的大地构造环境和强烈的现代地壳构造运动,导致其在强大的近东西向构造应力场的驱动和平卧“A”字型控震构造体系的控制下,沿两侧边界断裂向东强力楔入,于“构造急剧收口带”之西侧形成了一个近SN向地跨三大构造单元的强震带,强震沿该带有规律的往返迁移和重复发生,且地震活动强弱具有较明显的分形特征。     

Bathymetric and geochemical investigation of Kawah Ijen Crater Lake, East Java, Indonesia

A bathymetric survey of Kawah Ijen crater lake was conducted by acoustic sounding in 1996 to compare the lake morphology with those measured in 1922, 1925 and 1938, and to calculate the present lake volume. Even though the lake experienced several hydrothermal eruptions, the maximum depth became shallower (182 m) than before (200 m), resulting in a reduced lake volume (3.0×10⁷ m³).Fifty-two major and minor constituents including rare earth elements and polythionates (PT) of the lake waters at various depths were determined by ICP-AES, ICP-MS and HPLC, respectively. These ions except for several volatile elements are taken up by lake fringe through congruent dissolution of pyroclastics of Kawah Ijen volcano. Most ions are homogeneously distributed throughout the lake, although PT showed a considerable vertical variation. Rare earth elements (REE) in the Kawah Ijen water as well as those from other hyper-acidic crater lakes show distribution patterns likely due to the three rock dissolution (preferential, congruent and residual) types, and their logarithmic concentrations linearly depend upon the pH values of the lake waters.Using the PT degradation kinetics data, production rates of PT, injection rates of SO₂ and H₂S into the lake were estimated to be 114, 86 and 30 tons/day, respectively. Also travel time of the spring water at the Banyupahit Riverhead from Kawah Ijen was estimated to be 600–1000 days through the consideration of decreasing rates of PT. Molten sulfur stocks containing Sn, Cu, Bi sulfides and Pb-barite exposed on the inner crater slope were presumed to be extinct molten sulfur pools at the former lake bottom. This was strongly supported by the barite precipitation temperature estimated through the consideration of the temperature dependence of Pb-chlorocomplex formation.     

The possible connection between ionization in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and low level clouds

Recent analysis of monthly mean cloud data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project uncovered a strong correlation between low cloud and the cosmic ray flux for extensive regions of the Earth. Additional data have been recently released covering the period up to September 2001 with which we have made a new study of the geographical variation of the correlation between low cloud and predicted ionization level from cosmic rays at an altitude of 2 km. When analysed globally, we find that the correlations do not correspond to the latitude variation of cosmic ray flux and they are not field significant. Nonetheless they appear to be marginally field significant over broad latitude and longitude bands with a peak positive correlation at 50 degrees North and South and a tendency to negative correlation at lower latitudes. The correlation is strongest over the North and South Atlantic. Several of these features are consistent with the predictions of the electroscavenging process.We use a simple model to calculate the climatic impact should the correlation be confirmed. We show that, under the most favorable conditions, a reduction in low cloud cover since the late 19th century, combined with the direct forcing by solar irradiance can explain a significant part of the global warming over the past century, but not all. However, this computation assumes that there is no feedback or changes in cloud at other levels.     

Investigation of upper crust anisotropy in Ghaen-Birjand region, east-central Iran

IntroductionWhenpropagatingthroughananisotropicmedium,ashearwavesplitsintotwo(quasi)shearwaveswithdifferentpropagationspeedsandpolarizedorthogonally.Owingtotherecentdevel-opmentofseismicobservationsystem,detectionofshearwavessplittingwithverysmalldelaytimesbetweenfasterandslowershearwavesbecameavailableandprovidedpowerfulapproachfordetectionofcrustalanisotropy.Crampin(1978)emphasizedtheroleofalignedmicrocracksasacauseofcrustalanisotropyandpointedoutthatforverticallyalignedmicrocracksthedirecti…