基于多元线性回归方法的砌体结构加固费用估算模型研究

为建立适用于砌体结构的加固费用快速估算模型,对中国陕西、山西、四川等地砌体结构建筑物的历史加固费用及相关建筑参数进行统计,建立涵盖35栋砌体结构建筑物加固费用估算模型的回归与验证数据库,同时对影响加固费用的各建筑参数作显著性分析,并基于后向消去的多元线性回归方法,利用SPSS统计分析软件对已采集的加固数据进行回归,得到4个费用估算模型;按照相应评价准则分别对各模型进行评价,提出一套最优的砌体结构加固费用快速估算模型,并对该回归模型进行验证分析。回归得到的费用估算模型满足精度要求,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

COMPARATIVE STUDY ON THE SEISMIC RETROFIT OF A MID-RISE STEEL BUILDING: STEEL BRACING VS ENERGY DISSIPATION

The paper presents a comparative study of an existing retrofit for a mid-rise steel building using additional stiff steel braced-frames against an alternate retrofit using ADAS (Added Damping and Stiffness) passive energy dissipation devices. The subject building, located near Alameda Park in downtown Mexico City, is a ten-storey office building that was built in the 1950s. The structure was damaged during the 1985 Michoacán Earthquake because of resonant response with the site. The building was later retrofitted using additional braced frames according to the seismic provisions of Mexico's 1987 Federal District Code. The retrofit scheme was planned to take the structure away from resonant responses and to inhibit structural damage. A proposed upgrade using ADAS energy dissipation devices was studied to compare energy dissipation against traditional stiffening using steel braces as retrofit options for mid-rise buildings in Mexico City's lake-bed zone. Different sets of analyses were carried out to compare both alternatives: (a) three-dimensional elastic analyses; (b) limit analyses and; (c) nonlinear dynamic analyses for postulated site ground motions for a M_s=8.1 earthquake. Initial costs of the retrofit schemes were also studied. The comparative studies suggest that a retrofit using ADAS devices would have a better dynamic performance than the one using steel braces. However, the steel bracing retrofit provides more strength and its initial cost of retrofit is less than that of the ADAS retrofit. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于BIM的地震灾后民用建筑重建工程施工成本控制方法

采用传统的成本控制方法,存在质量和成本无法同时优化、成本预测精确度低,成本控制效果不佳等问题,为此,提出基于BIM的建筑重建工程施工成本控制方法。采用灰色系统理论预测建筑施工成本具体面临的问题,以各期施工成本相关信息数据作为模型数据基础;结合BIM技术进行成本控制动态模型构建,在模型中引入可辨识矩阵设定成本各指标的相对重要度,进一步找寻施工成本各项指标间的关系,按其相互关系进行排序,得到子成本与总成本间的规则联系,并就规则制定控制策略,调整成本控制动态模型以实现施工成本的动态控制。实验结果表明,所提方法的成本预测精度始终在75%以上,成本控制结果与实际值的拟合度高达95%,相比当前方法具有更好的控制性能。     

全球碳排放空间约束条件下美国退出《巴黎协定》对中欧日碳排放空间和减排成本的影响

应用全球多部门、多区域动态可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型,采用情景分析方法,评估美国退出《巴黎协定》后,由于其碳排放路径的变化对国际气候谈判中的3个重要谈判方中国、欧盟和日本实现国家自主贡献（NDC）和2℃目标情景下碳排放空间和减排成本的影响。结果表明：在全球碳排放固定且分配方式固定的条件下,美国不同程度的退约将为自身获得较大的碳排放空间,同时挤压其他地区,包括中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳排放空间,将推高中国、欧盟和日本实现NDC和2℃目标的碳价。2030年,2℃目标下中国碳价的升幅将达4.4~14.6美元/t,欧盟为9.7~35.4美元/t,日本为16.0~53.5美元/t。同时将增加中国、欧盟和日本等其他国家和地区的GDP损失。2030年,2℃目标下中国GDP损失的升幅将达220.0亿~711.0亿美元（相当于16.4~53.1美元/人）,欧盟为93.5亿~321.4亿美元（相当于20.7~71.1美元/人）,日本为41.3亿~134.5亿美元（相当于34.3~111.7美元/人）。     

Barriers to movement: Modelling energetic costs of avoiding marine wind farms amongst breeding seabirds

Proposals for wind farms in areas of known importance for breeding seabirds highlight the need to understand the impacts of these structures. Using an energetic modelling approach, we examine the effects of wind farms as barriers to movement on seabirds of differing morphology. Additional costs, expressed in relation to typical daily energetic expenditures, were highest per unit flight for seabirds with high wing loadings, such as cormorants. Taking species-specific differences into account, costs were relatively higher in terns, due to the high daily frequency of foraging flights. For all species, costs of extra flight to avoid a wind farm appear much less than those imposed by low food abundance or adverse weather, although such costs will be additive to these. We conclude that adopting a species-specific approach is essential when assessing the impacts of wind farms on breeding seabird populations, to fully anticipate the effects of avoidance flights.     

The transport-geographical location of Siberia's microregions: techniques and assessment results

It is established that the methodological tools for quantitative measurement of the transport-geographical location is insufficiently advanced. We suggest the algorithm for the technique of its cost assessment based on determining the “economic” distances and adapted to the peculiarities of the transport system of Siberia. We calculated the costs of the transport-geographical location of Siberian microregions (within administrative districts) with respect to the most important year-round sea ports for the current (the year 2005) and future (the year 2030) levels.     

次区域合作及其发展的成因——一个跨学科视角的分析

次区域合作诞生于20世纪80年代末、90年代初,但从一开始起对"次区域"及"次区域合作"的理解就存在许多不同的见解。同时由于次区域合作涉及边境地区,合作的领域又极其广泛,对次区域合作产生的成因没有定论。本文对"次区域"及"次区域合作"的定义重新做了界定,对次区域合作的分类及其相互影响、特征等作了阐述,并且从经济学、国际关系学、国际贸易学和地缘政治学等不同学科角度对次区域合作发展的成因进行了理论解释,以期促使我国更好的参与周边次区域合作。     

山地森林采伐作业的环境成本定量研究

在森林采运作业的成本核算中,不仅要考虑采运作业的各项劳动消耗和物化劳动,还应合理考虑到森林采运作业的环境成本.以天然林择伐试验样地的跟踪调查数据为基础,从涵养水源价值、保持水土价值、固碳释氧价值3方面对南方丘陵山地不同强度采伐经营的环境成本进行定量研究.结果表明,弱度择伐环境成本较小,仅1.7 元/m~3,中度、强度择伐环境成本分别为弱度的5.1、12.2倍,极强度择伐的环境成本最大,达到25.3 元/m~3,是弱度择伐的16.2倍;皆伐由于收获量大,其单位采伐量环境成本为弱度择伐的14.9倍,低于极强度采伐.研究结果有助于人们对林业生产的效益有进一步的认识,也期待能对继续本领域的研究有参考价值.     

Regional difference in social capital and its impact on regional economic growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development. China is a country with high stocks of social capital. Using several different indicators of social capital, this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978–2004. Measuring social capital with indicators of associations, charities and blood donation rates, this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China. Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance. Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth. This relationship exists after controlling policy, macro location factors, and per capita GDP in the initial year. The empirical findings indicate that institutions, culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China. Therefore, the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.     

浅谈如何做好初步设计概算

准确的初步设计概算对设计阶段控制工程造价起着非常重要的作用,笔者分析了初步设计概算当前存在的问题,提出了做好初步设计概算的四项措施。