6月MJO对广东降水调制与直接影响系统的联系

利用1979—2008年广东省86个测站逐日降水资料及NCEP-DOE第2套分析资料等,提出影响广东500 hPa环流系统的判别方法,分析6月赤道MJO (季节内振荡) 活动对广东降水的调制作用随中低纬度环流型的变化。结果表明:强MJO第3位相广东出现强降水的概率最高,是8个位相中唯一强降水等级出现日数超过弱降水日数的位相。在直接影响广东的5种500 hPa环流系统 (包括西风槽、西风浅槽、平直西风或高压边缘、副热带高压、热带低压槽) 中,西风槽类型影响时,赤道MJO对广东降水的调制作用最强,其他环流类型影响时,MJO的调制作用很弱。广东在西风槽影响下,当处于MJO第3位相 (第6位相) 时,降水距平百分率达到最高 (低)。MJO对广东降水的调制作用随中低纬度环流系统的变化,主要是环流系统之间的不同配合导致降水所需的动力上升条件和水汽输送条件的相互配合发生变化造成的。     

阿勒泰市强降水衍生泥石流灾害分析

调查分析阿勒泰市区泥石流灾情、引发的气象因素以及有利的环流形势.结果表明:阿勒泰市泥石流灾害以市区东北部发生频率高,为重灾区,阿勒泰市泥石流主要发生在6-8月的强雷雨时段;中小尺度强雷雨是引发阿勒泰市泥石流直接的动力因素,降水超过15 mm并伴有雷暴可作为阿勒泰市泥石流气象预警指标;阿勒泰市夏季中小尺度系统引发的短时强降水有两种天气尺度环流背景.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WINTERTIME THERMAL CONTRAST OVER THE ASIAN CONTINENT AND THE CLIMATE IN CHINA

Recent studies indicated that except for the land-sea thermal contrast,there also existed the land-land thermal contrast.The composite analysis and t-test method are used to further study the local thermal contrast variation over the Asian continent,and to discuss the association of seasonal variation of land thermal state with circulation over East Asia,the early summer and summer monsoon activity,and the precipitation anomaly in China in the decadal scale.Results show that the positive meridional temperature anomaly transports downward from upper tropospheric layers in middle-high latitudes north of 25°N in the positive years.In the zonal direction,the Tibetan Plateau heating in the successive spring acts as a force to influence the atmosphere,leading to the rapid temperature warming over eastern Chinese continent,which could increase the land-sea thermal contrast with the negative SSTA.Accordingly,the monsoon activity in early summer over East Asian establishes earlier and the summer monsoon intensity becomes stronger.The early summer precipitation is more-than-normal over the Yangtze River,and the summer precipitation is more-than-normal over the north China and the southwest China.The situation is contrary in the negative years.     

区域极端降水事件阈值计算方法比较分析

根据南京站1951—2010年逐日降水资料,采用2种传统的百分位法以及3种正态变换方法,探讨了确定区域极端降水事件阈值的最佳方法。结果表明,由于降水量的实际概率分布是一种明显的偏态分布,而传统的百分位法是在假设降水量遵从均匀分布条件下进行的,计算结果的稳定性较差。正态变换的3种方法是在降水量实际概率分布下采用百分位法计算阈值的,结果稳定性较好。其中以方法4效果最佳。为消除气候变化的影响,可以将研究时段按降水量变化的不同趋势分为几个气候阶段分别计算阈值。或者采用滑动气候阶段处理整个研究时段,并以各个滑动气候阶段阈值的平均值作为整个研究时段的阈值。     

基于Voronoi图的强降水过程空间非均匀性定量表征方法

利用Voronoi\\Delaunay图模型影响范围和局部动态的特性,提出一种基于动态边界定量提取强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征的新方法,根据1959—2002年中国740站逐日降水资料,构建5日、10日两种时间尺度区域持续性年极端强降水过程序列,用以检验该方法的应用效果,并应用该方法分析了5日(10日)区域持续性年极端强降水过程空间非均匀分布特征及其演变规律。结果表明：与传统的数量统计方法和区域插值方法相比,该方法在强降水空间分布中心、过程内不同强度降水覆盖区域、降水集中区等的定量度量方面具有更高的分辨力和较好实际应用价值;气候趋势分析中在1959—2002年间,5日区域持续性年极端强降水过程出现日期有明显提前趋势。     

吉林省主汛期典型多雨年和少雨年成因对比分析

将1951-2011年吉林省主汛期降水量排名的前、后6位分别定义为多、少雨年,利用NCEP（2.5°×2.5°）再分析资料计算主汛期平均高度场、温度场、风场及比湿、涡度等物理量场;根据天气学原理和常规天气预报经验,对比分析主汛期典型多雨与少雨天气系统结构形态、分布位置、中心强度等特征。结果表明：500 hPa多雨年568等高线较少雨年平均偏南3个纬度,副热带高压588等高线较少雨年平均偏西7个经度偏北1个纬度;低层辐合高层辐散是多雨年的重要特征;850 hPa和700 hPa平均水汽含量多雨年明显多于少雨年;典型多雨年850 hPa风场贝加尔湖附近为单辐合中心,少雨年为双辐合中心。     

Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: comparison of trends in two regions of New York,USA

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984–2001 and 1992–2001) and surface water chemistry (1992–2001) were determined in two of the most acid‐sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO₄^2?), nitrate (NO₃^?), and base cation (C_B) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984–2001, but few significant trends during 1992–2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO₄^2? concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO₃^?, C_B, and H⁺ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO₄^2? trends, but it caused several significant non‐flow‐corrected trends in NO₃^? and ANC to become non‐significant, suggesting that trend results for flow‐sensitive constituents are affected by flow‐related climate variation. SO₄^2? concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO₄^2? concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO₃^? and H⁺ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation–surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local‐scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid–base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of actual evaporation using precipitation and soil moisture records in arid climates

There is little knowledge available about infiltration and evaporation processes in wadi channels in arid regions. This work was conducted to determine the actual evaporation from bare soils in wadi channels in the south-western region of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The estimation of soil evaporation is highly dependent on the availability of moisture in the upper layers of alluvial wadis, in which the areal rainfall, flood hydrograph and soil properties play a significant part. The study was conducted by estimating the actual evaporation using soil moisture data, precipitation and runoff depths in a representative basin. The results are compared with potential rates. The actual rates were 1.5 mm/day immediately after a rainy day and then decreased to 0.42 mm/day. The minimum rate was about 0.1–0.2 mm/day during the dry season. The potential rates were about 9.5 mm/day in June and July, decreasing to 3.5 mm/day in December and January.     

RELATION BETWEEN δ~（18）O IN ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

ＲＥＬＡＴＩＯＮＢＥＴＷＥＥＮδ~（１８）ＯＩＮＡＴＭＯＳＰＨＥＲＩＣＰＲＥＣＩＰＩＴＡＴＩＯＮＡＮＤＴＥＭＰＥＲＡＴＵＲＥＡＮＤＰＲＥＣＩＰＩＴＡＴＩＯＮＺｈａｎｇＸｉｎｐｉｎｇ（章新平）（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＧｅｏｇｒａｐｈｙ，ＨｕｎａｎＮｏ?..     

雷州半岛人工增雨研究与应用

通过对雷州半岛云水资源气候分布、云的宏观动力学和微观物理学、降水形成机制、人工增雨机制、冷云催化剂与暧云催化剂、播云方式与催化方法的研究和对外场试验的总结，表明：雷州半岛空中具有丰富的云水资源。有暖云降水机制、冷云降水机制和混态云“播种一供水”降水增强机制。人工增雨可进行静力催化和动力催化，使用的冷云催化剂为冰核和致冷剂，暖云催化剂为吸湿性巨核。适宜的人工增雨作业工具为飞机、火箭、地面蚶丙酮溶液燃烟发生器、气球携带AgI焰弹、增雨炮艇等。37高炮不适宜在雷州半岛使用。