台风“利奇马”对钻孔体应变的扰动分析——以浙江地区为例

利用台风“利奇马”过境浙江期间,岱山地震台、东阳地震台钻孔体应变数据,采用数据滤波和线性回归等方法,分析了这2个台站钻孔体应变对台风的响应特征。结果表明,东阳地震台受台风引起的低气压的影响,钻孔体应变与气压同步变化;而岱山地震台受低气压和降水的共同影响,钻孔体应变与气压在变化的相关性和同步性上均有差异。气压和降水导致钻孔体应变的变化量可以通过负载力学模型进行估算求解。     

用树木年轮重建伊犁南天山北坡西部的降水量序列

根据采自伊犁地区南天山北坡11个采点的树木年轮样本,建立了每个采点的3种年表。通过单相关普查发现,标准化树轮年表序列与当年1~5月的降水显著相关。分析表明该时段降水与树木年轮生长呈正相关具有明确的树木生理学意义。利用新源上限(XNAUt)、昭苏上限(ZUt、ZUt 2)和特克斯下限(TLt)4个标准化树轮年表序列可较好地重建该区域在该时段的降水量。经交叉检验,所得重建方程是稳定可靠的,重建的降水序列是可信的。通过分析发现:伊犁地区南天山北坡300年以来1~5月的降水大致经历了6个偏湿阶段和6个偏干阶段;有2.0~2.8年、24.8年、28.3年、33年、99年的变化准周期;在1909年发生由多向少的突变;1740年、1870年发生由少向多的突变,其中又以1870年前后的突变最为明显。     

Precipitation‐runoff processes in Shimen hillslope micro‐catchment of Taihang Mountain,north China

Precipitation runoff is a critical hillslope hydrological process for downslope streamflow and piedmont/floodplain recharge. Shimen hillslope micro‐catchment is strategically located in the central foothill region of Taihang Mountains, where runoff is crucial for water availability in the piedmont corridors and floodplains of north China. This study analyzes precipitation‐runoff processes in the Shimen hillslope micro‐catchment for 2006–2008 using locally designed runoff collection systems. The study shows that slope length is a critical factor, next only to precipitation, in terms of runoff yield. Regression analysis also shows that runoff is related positively to precipitation, and negatively to slope length. Soil mantle in the study area is generally thin and is therefore not as critical a runoff factor as slope length. The study shows a significant difference between overland and subsurface runoff. However, that between the 0–10 and 10–20 cm subsurfaces is insignificant. Runoff hardly occurs under light rains (<10 mm), but is clearly noticeable under moderate‐to‐rainstorm events. In the hillslope catchment, vertical infiltration (accounting for 42–84% of the precipitation) dominates runoff processes in subsurface soils and weathered granite gneiss bedrock. A weak lateral flow (at even the soil/bedrock interface) and the generally small runoff suggest strong infiltration loss via deep percolation. This is critical for groundwater recharge in the downslope piedmont corridors and floodplains. This may enhance water availability, ease water shortage, avert further environmental degradation, and reduce the risk of drought/flood in the event of extreme weather conditions in the catchment and the wider north China Plain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pacific coral oxygen isotope and the tropospheric temperature gradient over the Asian monsoon region: a tool to reconstruct past Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Having recognized that it is the tropospheric temperature (TT) gradient rather than the land–ocean surface temperature gradient that drives the Indian monsoon, a new mechanism of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) monsoon teleconnection has been unveiled in which the ENSO influences the Indian monsoon by modifying the TT gradient over the region. Here we show that equatorial Pacific coralline oxygen isotopes reflect TT gradient variability over the Indian monsoon region and are strongly correlated to monsoon precipitation as well as to the length of the rainy season. Using these relationships we have been able to reconstruct past Indian monsoon rainfall variability of the first half of the 20th century in agreement with the instrumental record. Additionally, an older coral oxygen isotope record has been used to reconstruct seasonally resolved summer monsoon rainfall variability of the latter half of the 17th century, indicating that the average annual rainfall during this period was similar to that during the 20th century. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation into the daily precipitation variability in the Yangtze River Delta,China

In this article, by using the daily precipitation data measured at 58 meteorological stations, spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation including zero rainfall values (called “precipitation”) and without zero rainfall values (called “rain”) and four precipitation extrema (P₀, P₂₀, P₅₀, and P₁₀₀ representing the daily precipitation with the magnitude smaller than 0.1 mm, bigger than 20 mm, 50 mm, and 100 mm per day, respectively) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) during 1958–2007 were analyzed, and the effects of urbanization were further investigated. Results indicate that (i) differing from the downward trends in 1958–1985, daily precipitation and rain in 1986–2007 show slowly downward trends in the mid YRD but show upward trends in the northern and southern YRD. (ii) Spatial and temporal variability of the rain is more complex than daily precipitation. Both of them become smaller but show more obvious fluctuations in 1986–2007. (iii) Urbanizations cause not only the urban rainfall island problem but also more obvious fluctuations of rain intensity in the mid YRD, reflecting more uncertainty of daily precipitation variability. (iv) Urbanizations have little effects on the variability of P₀ and P₁₀₀ but cause notable increases of P₂₀ and P₅₀. (v) The spatial variability of daily precipitation and precipitation extrema in 1958–1985 clearly shows a breakpoint at 30°20′N latitude, but the breakpoint disappears afterward because of the effects of urbanization. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of precipitation characteristics on soil hydrology in tile‐drained landscapes

Understanding the variables regulating tile‐flow response to precipitation in the US Midwest is critical for water quality management. This study (1) investigates the relationship between precipitation characteristics, antecedent water table depth and tile‐flow response at a high temporal resolution during storms; and (2) determines the relative importance of macropore flow versus matrix flow in tile flow in a tile‐drained soya bean field in Indiana. In spring, although variations in antecedent water table depth imparted some variation in tile‐flow response to precipitation, bulk precipitation was the best predictor of mean tile flow, maximum tile flow, time to peak, and run‐off ratio. The contribution of macropore flow to total flow significantly increased with precipitation amount, and macropore flow represented between 11 and 50% of total drain flow, with peak contributions between 15 and 74% of flow. For large storms (>6 cm bulk precipitation), cations data indicated a dilution of groundwater with new water as discharge peaked. Although no clear dilution or concentration patterns for Mg²⁺ or K⁺ were observed for smaller tile flow generating events (<3 cm bulk precipitation), macropore flow still contributed between 11 and 17% of the total flow for these moderate size storms. Inter‐drain comparison stressed the need to use triplicate or duplicate tile drain experiments when investigating tile drainage impact on water and N losses at the plot scale. These results significantly increase our understanding of the hydrological functioning of tile‐drained fields in spring, when most N losses to streams occur in the US Midwest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Appropriate Spatial Sampling of Rainfall or Flow Simulation/Echantillonnage Spatial de la Pluie Approprié pour la Simulation D'écoulements

Abstract

The objective of this study is to find the appropriate number and location of raingauges for a river basin for flow simulation by using statistical analyses and hydrological modelling. First, a statistical method is used to identify the appropriate number of raingauges. Herein the effect of the number of raingauges on the cross-correlation coefficient between areally averaged rainfall and discharge is investigated. Second, a lumped HBV model is used to investigate the effect of the number of raingauges on hydrological modelling performance. The Qingjiang River basin with 26 raingauges in China is used for a case study. The results show that both cross-correlation coefficient and modelling performance increase hyperbolically, and level off after five raingauges (therefore identified to be the appropriate number of rain-gauges) for this basin. The geographical locations of raingauges which give the best and worst hydrological modelling performance are identified, which shows that there is a strong dependence on the local geographical and climatic patterns.     

Seasonal evaluation of rainfall estimation by four cumulus parameterization schemes and their sensitivity analysis

Sustainable water resources management require scientifically sound information on precipitation, as it plays a key role in hydrological responses in a catchment. In recent years, mesoscale weather models in conjunction with hydrological models have gained great attention as they can provide high‐resolution downscaled weather variables. Many cumulus parameterization schemes (CPSs) have been developed and incorporated into three‐dimensional Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model 5 (MM5). This study has performed a comprehensive evaluation of four CPSs (the Anthes–Kuo, Grell, Betts–Miller and Kain–Fritsch93 schemes) to identify how their inclusion influences the mesoscale model's precipitation estimation capabilities. The study has also compared these four CPSs in terms of variability in rainfall estimation at various horizontal and vertical levels. For this purpose, the MM5 was nested down to resolution of 81 km for Domain 1 (domain span 21 × 81 km) and 3 km for Domain 4 (domain span 16 × 3 km), respectively, with vertical resolutions at 23, 40 and 53 vertical levels. The study was carried out at the Brue catchment in Southwest England using both the ERA‐40 reanalysis data and the land‐based observation data. The performances of four CPs were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the amount of cumulative rainfall in 4 months in 1995 representing the four seasonal months, namely, January (winter), March (spring), July (summer) and October (autumn). It is observed that the Anthes–Kuo scheme has produced inferior precipitation values during spring and autumn seasons while simulations during winter and summer were consistently good. The Betts–Miller scheme has produced some reasonable results, particularly at the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) during winter and summer. The KF2 scheme was the best scheme for the larger‐scale (81 km grid size) domain during winter season at both 23 and 53 vertical levels. This scheme tended to underestimate rainfall for other seasons including the small‐scale domain (3 km grid size) in the mesoscale. The Grell scheme was the best scheme in simulating rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to other three schemes with consistently better results in all four seasons and in different domain scales. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analyse fréquentielle régionale des précipitations journalières maximales annuelles au Québec,Canada / Regional frequency analysis of annual maximum daily precipitation in Quebec,Canada

Abstract

Abstract A complete regional analysis of daily precipitations is carried out in the southern half of the province of Quebec, Canada. The first step of the regional estimation procedure consists of delineating the homogeneous regions within the area of study and testing for homogeneity within each region. The delineation of homogeneous regions is based on using L-moment ratios. A simulation-based testing of statistical homogeneity allows one to verify the inter-site variability. The second step of the procedure deals with the identification of the regional distribution and the estimation of its parameters. The General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was identified as an appropriate parent distribution. This distribution has already been recommended by several previous research studies for regional frequency analysis of precipitation extremes. The parameters of the GEV distribution are estimated based on the computation of the regional L-CV, L-C_S and the mean of annual maximal daily precipitations. The third step consists of the estimation of precipitation quantiles corresponding to various return periods. The final procedure allows for the estimation of these quantiles at sites where no precipitation information is available. The use of a jack-knife resampling procedure with data from the province of Quebec allows one to demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the regional estimation procedure. Values of the root mean square error were below 10% for a return period of 20 years, and 20% for a return period of 100 years.     

Pluie ou neige? Dispositif de mesures pluviographiques dans les Andes de Bolivie et interprétation des enregistrements/Rainfall or snowfall? Device for measuring the precipitation phase in the Bolivian Andes and analysis of the records

Abstract

Abstract The knowledge of the precipitation phase, solid or liquid, is important in high mountains, in order to use models of water and energy balances. During an experiment led in the Bolivian Andes, a complete weather station was installed at an altitude close to 4800 m, including two raingauge recorders, the first one with added antifreeze and oil, based on weight measurement, and the other one with tipping buckets. This device allowed a realistic partition of the liquid and solid phases in this region of tropical mountains, where the observed snow pack at the ground level is strongly influenced by the extremely high solar radiation and where the snow cover is ephemeral. The automation of the ?raingauges? method, compared with several other classical methods, shows satisfactory results.