Predicting the expansion of an urban boundary using spatial logistic regression and hybrid raster–vector routines with remote sensing and GIS

This paper presents an urban growth boundary model (UGBM) which utilizes spatial logistic regression (SLR), remote sensing, and GIS to simulate the differentially expanding geometry of a dynamic urban boundary over decadal time periods. SLR is used as the core algorithm in a UGBM quantifying how biophysical factors influence the rate at which all edges of an urban boundary expand over time. Spatial drivers selected from a raster-based environment are used as input predictor variables to the SLR UGBM, the output response variable being the distance between time-separated urban boundary intersections along arcs extending radially from a point centered at the urban core relative to the maximum distance. Percent area match (PAM) quantity and location goodness-of-fit metrics, fit of the predicted distance versus observed distance, and the sensitivity of the SLR UGBM to the contribution of each predictor variable are used to assess the agreement between predicted and observed urban boundaries. The model is built, tested, and validated using satellite images of the city of Las Vegas, United States of America, collected in 1990, 2000, and 2010. We compare urban boundary simulation of full and reduced SLR UGBMs to a null UGBM lacking in specificity of predictor variables. Results indicate that the SLR UGBM has a better goodness of fit compared to a null UGBM using PAM quantity and location goodness-of-fit metrics. Then, we use the SLR UGBM to predict urban boundary expansion between the years 2000 and 2010 and describe how this model can be used to plan ahead for future boundary expansions given what is known about current edge conditions.     

基于能源安全的辽宁省煤炭资源流动研究

从流量、流向及资源合作三方面探讨辽宁省煤炭资源流动特征,并对未来5年煤炭输入量进行预测,结果表明:1)辽宁省能源产消失衡,对外依存度逐渐上升,与外省煤炭资源交流更为频繁。2)辽宁煤炭资源交流主要集中在其周边地区,内蒙古是最大的煤炭供应源,承担着未来辽宁能源安全的重任。3)由ARIMA模型预测结果可知,未来5年辽宁省煤炭资源输入量将呈现稳定增长趋势。建议采取多种模式,加强政策指引,完善与优化蒙辽煤运通道,促进蒙辽煤炭资源开发合作。     

基于粒子群优化BP神经网络的耕地自然质量分计算模型

针对常规农用地分等方法中因子权重计算存在人为因素干扰及BP神经网络模型自身优化过程中易陷入局部极小值的情况,通过粒子群算法的全局搜索能力对BP神经网络进行优化,建立耕地自然质量分计算的粒子群BP神经网络模型(PSO-BP网络模型)。对湖北省荆门市沙洋县进行实证研究,结果证明PSO-BP网络模型能避免常规方法因子权重确定的人为干扰,同时具有较高的优化效率,应用效果较好。     

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Residential solid fuel use: Modelling the impacts and policy implications of natural resource access,temperature, income,gas infrastructure and government regulation

Reducing solid fuel use for home heating can reduce both carbon emissions and air pollution within residential areas and thereby provide for improved environmental and health outcomes. The general models used to identify the determinants of solid fuel use often focus upon socioeconomic factors. Utilising an extended spatial econometric approach our results show proximity to a solid fuel resource as the most significant factor. Other spatially evaluated attributes, such as temperature, legislated solid-fuel sale restrictions and gas network coverage, are also found to have significant impacts on solid fuel use choices. Clear spatial dependence patterns are found for the effects of these attributes, with further evidence of large spill-over effects for neighbouring areas in the case of proximity to either a peat bog or an area subject to a ban on the sale of smoky coal. The research engages a blend of GIS and spatial econometric analysis to generate maps for both a fuel poverty risk and a resistance to fuel change index. These outcomes can serve to inform the design and deployment of effective and equitable solid-fuel and environmental policy interventions. Suggested policy interventions include conservation of peat bogs, expansion of smoky coal ban areas and the development of gas network coverage to specific areas. In addition to the policy support outcomes, the paper offers technical and methodological innovations in relation to combining spatial attributes with econometric models, handling large spatial matrices, understanding direct and indirect effects, and visibly presenting estimated values with spatial dependence.     

近10年广东冰雹的统计特征及天气形势

对2004—2013年广东冰雹天气的时空分布、天气形势、物理量进行了分析。广东的冰雹天气主要出现在3—5月并且集中在粤北山区和西江流域河网地带。可将广东出现冰雹时的天气形势分成锋面低槽型、暖区型、高架雷暴型3种典型的类型。锋面低槽型,大冰雹多出现在这类天气形势下,地面冷锋、低层切变线(低涡)、高空槽(温度槽)互相配合,地面冷空气和中层温度槽的侵入,使得大气层结变的不稳定;锋面、切变线、高空槽的动力作用触发对流;冰雹出现在锋面、切变线附近,高空槽前。暖区型,地面在长江流域以南没有冷空气活动,低层存在西南风与东南风的辐合,高空槽带来干冷空叠加在低层暖湿气流之上,形成不稳定层结;冰雹出现在高空槽前、低层辐合区内。高架雷暴型,地面为冷高压控制,低空存在逆温层,暖湿气流沿着低层冷垫爬升,对流在逆温层之上发展;冰雹出现在切变线附近,多为小冰雹。在广东,适宜大冰雹生长的物理量平均值是:0℃层高度4505m,-20℃层高度7632m,K指数35℃,SI指数-0.99℃;垂直风切变2.67×10-3 s-1;最大上升速度-28×10-2 Pa/s,400hPa与700hPa之间的差动温度平流-23.9×10-5℃/s。大冰雹要求更大的K指数、更小的SI、更大的垂直风切变、更加充足的水汽、更加强烈的垂直上升速度、更大的差动温度平流。     

垂直方向静力适应过程的机理研究

为了研究垂直方向静力适应过程的机理,通过垂直方向静力适应方程组导出适应过程的守恒量、适应终态和解析解,并对解析解进行数值模拟。研究结果表明:适应终态是由初始守恒量和基本场决定。垂直速度解析解是由声波和地面反射的声波组成。随着高度的增加,垂直速度呈现e的负指数衰减。适应时间依赖于初始扰动的强度和空间尺度,扰动值越大,范围越广,适应时间越长。浮力振荡频率值的大小影响适应范围,当浮力振荡频率值减小,静力适应影响范围将更广。     

西北区域气象计量检定实验室量值比对分析

为验证西北区域各省（区）气象计量检定机构的检定能力,2014年宁夏气象计量检定所作为主导实验室组织开展温度、湿度、气压3个要素量值比对工作。比对采用圆环形路线,比对样品选用自动气象站传感器。参比实验室按照规定的比对方案对比对样品进行比对实验及不确定度评定,主导实验室对比对数据进行汇总分析,采用归一化偏差方法分析评价比对结果。比对结果：温度与气压实验室比对结果满意,湿度实验室比对结果较满意。参比样品的比对数据真实,结果可信,较为客观地反映了西北区域各参比实验室的检定/校准水平及气象计量标准装置的现状,有效识别了参加量值比对实验室存在的问题,对促进实验室检定能力的提高具有重要意义。     

城市污水处理厂升级改造工程设计与运行效果

为保护海洋环境,改善胶州湾的水污染现状,根据青岛市政府的要求对污水处理厂进行升级改造。主体生化工艺采用A2/O+移动床生物膜(MBBR)工艺,通过投加SPR-1生物填料,将好氧段改造为生物膜—活性污泥复合工艺。同时新建混凝、沉淀、过滤等深度处理设施。运行四年来,效果良好,抗冲击负荷能力强,可同时强化脱氮除磷,主要水质指标均稳定达到《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》(GB18918-2002)一级A标准。实践证明,该工艺可大幅减少工程量,具有运行管理简便、处理效率稳定等特点,较好地解决了市政污水厂升级改造中的难题,可为其他污水厂的升级改造提供借鉴。同时,污染物年减排量明显提高,团岛海域水质环境质量将得到进一步改善。     

Climate change impacts on Namibia's natural resources and economy

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in southern Africa. When rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity, leading to erosion and flood damage. However, these predictions have had very little influence on policy in southern African countries. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations for Namibia indicate that over 20 years, annual losses to the Namibian economy could be up to 5% of GDP, due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poorest people the most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour in rural areas. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are ‘climate proofed’ and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farm workers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialized nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate-constrained future.