北方农牧交错带退耕还林还草经济政策优化调控

退耕还林还草作为北方农牧交错带生态重建的切入点,在实际操作中也不可避免地存在一定的问题。文章对当前退耕还林还草的社会经济特征、政策安排、协调机制及制约因素进行了分析。提出:区域粮食适度自给定位、部门协调机制创新、产权制度改革、区域产业专业化分工、适度生态移民及建立生态补偿机制为进行政策优化调控的主要途径。     

Designing effective and equitable zero-deforestation supply chain policies

In response to the clearing of tropical forests for agricultural expansion, agri-food companies have adopted promises to eliminate deforestation from their supply chains in the form of ‘zero-deforestation commitments’ (ZDCs). While there is growing evidence about the environmental effectiveness of these commitments (i.e., whether they meet their conservation goals), there is little information on how they influence producers’ opportunity to access sustainable markets and related livelihood outcomes, or how design and implementation choices influence tradeoffs or potential synergies between effectiveness and equity in access. This paper explores these research gaps and makes three main contributions by: i) defining and justifying the importance of analyzing access equity and its relation to effectiveness when implementing forest-focused supply chain policies such as ZDCs, ii) identifying seven policy design principles that are likely to maximize synergies between effectiveness and access equity, and iii) assessing effectiveness-access equity tensions and synergies across common ZDC implementation mechanisms amongst the five largest firms in each of the leading agricultural forest-risk commodity sectors: palm oil, soybeans, beef cattle, and cocoa. To enhance forest conservation while avoiding harm to the most vulnerable farmers in the tropics, it is necessary to combine stringent rules with widespread capacity building, greater involvement of affected actors in the co-production of implementation mechanisms, and support for alternative rural development paths.     

基于出租车上下客点的城市人口流动分析

掌握城市人口流动动态有利于进行交通预测、应急快速响应,以及合理的城市规划。出租车作为城市主要的交通运输工具之一,可以反映城市中人口的流动。本文以出租车上下客点数据为例,对比在工作日以及休息日的人口流动差异,分析出租车数据的空间分布及其动态变化,揭示城市人口流动模式。     

Provenance of Holocene beach sand in the Western Iberian margin: the use of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for the deciphering of sediment recycling in a modern coastal system

Detrital zircons from Holocene beach sand and igneous zircons from the Cretaceous syenite forming Cape Sines (Western Iberian margin) were dated using laser ablation – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry. The U–Pb ages obtained were used for comparison with previous radiometric data from Carboniferous greywacke, Pliocene–Pleistocene sand and Cretaceous syenite forming the sea cliff at Cape Sines and the contiguous coast. New U–Pb dating of igneous morphologically simple and complex zircons from the syenite of the Sines pluton suggests that the history of zircon crystallization was more extensive (ca 87 to 74 Ma), in contrast to the findings of previous geochronology studies (ca 76 to 74 Ma). The U–Pb ages obtained in Holocene sand revealed a wide interval, ranging from the Cretaceous to the Archean, with predominance of Cretaceous (37%), Palaeozoic (35%) and Neoproterozoic (19%) detrital‐zircon ages. The paucity of round to sub‐rounded grains seems to indicate a short transportation history for most of the Cretaceous zircons (ca 95 to 73 Ma) which are more abundant in the beach sand that was sampled south of Cape Sines. Comparative analysis using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical method, analysing sub‐populations separately, suggests that the zircon populations of the Carboniferous and Cretaceous rocks forming the sea cliff were reproduced faithfully in Quaternary sand, indicating sediment recycling. The similarity of the pre‐Cretaceous ages (>ca 280 Ma) of detrital zircons found in Holocene sand, as compared with Carboniferous greywacke and Pliocene–Pleistocene sand, provides support for the hypothesis that detritus was reworked into the beach from older sedimentary rocks exposed along the sea cliff. The largest percentage of Cretaceous zircons (<ca 95 Ma) found in Holocene sand, as compared with Pliocene–Pleistocene sand (secondary recycled source), suggests that the Sines pluton was the one of the primary sources that became progressively more exposed to erosion during Quaternary uplift. This work highlights the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov method in comparison of zircon age populations used to identify provenance and sediment recycling in modern and ancient detrital sedimentary sequences.     

Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants,best practices,and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.     

Climate change mitigation scenarios and policies and measures: the case of Kazakhstan

This article illustrates the main difficulties encountered in the preparation of GHG emission projections and climate change mitigation policies and measures (P&M) for Kazakhstan. Difficulties in representing the system with an economic model have been overcome by representing the energy system with a technical-economic growth model (MARKAL-TIMES) based on the stock of existing plants, transformation processes, and end-use devices. GHG emission scenarios depend mainly on the pace of transition in Kazakhstan from a planned economy to a market economy. Three scenarios are portrayed: an incomplete transition, a fast and successful one, and even more advanced participation in global climate change mitigation, including participation in some emission trading schemes. If the transition to a market economy is completed by 2020, P&M already adopted may reduce emissions of CO₂ from combustion by about 85 MtCO₂ by 2030 – 17% of the emissions in the baseline (WOM) scenario. One-third of these reductions are likely to be obtained from the demand sectors, and two-thirds from the supply sectors. If every tonne of CO₂ not emitted is valued up to US$10 in 2020 and $20 in 2030, additional P&M may further reduce emissions by 110 MtCO₂ by 2030.     

Life after death: shallow‐water Mediterranean invertebrate communities associated with mammal bones

Invertebrate and microbial marine communities associated with mammal bones are interesting and poorly understood habitats, mainly known from studies on deep‐water whale remains. In order to characterize these communities in the shallow‐water Mediterranean, we present here the results of a pioneering experiment using mammal bones. Minke whale, pig and cow bones were experimentally deployed on three different background communities: rocky substrate, soft‐bottom and a Posidonia oceanica meadow. Bones were deployed for a year at about 20 m depth and collected every 3 months, and the invertebrate fauna colonizing the bones was identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. As expected, mammal bones showed remarkable differences when compared with background communities. Within bones, four different clusters could be identified, primarily on the basis of the polychaete fauna, the most abundant and diverse group in the survey. Clusters A1–A3 corresponded to high to moderately altered successional stages composed by a fauna closer to that of anthropogenically enriched shallow‐water environments. These clusters were characterized by the occurrence of the opportunist polychaetes Ophryotrocha puerilis, Neanthes caudata (Cluster A1), Protodorvillea kefersteini (Cluster A2) and Ophryotrocha alborana (Cluster A3). Cluster B was characterized by the presence of the polychaete Oxydromus pallidus together with typical invertebrate background fauna, which suggests that this community, after a year of deployment, was closer to that found in natural conditions. As opposed to similar shallow‐water studies in other geographic areas, no occurrence of the polychaete Osedax (commonly known as bone‐eating worms) was reported from our experiments. Apart from the study on the invertebrate communities, insights about the population dynamics of three of the most abundant species (O. puerilis, O. alborana, N. caudata) are given as well as remarks on a hypothetical trophic network based on fecal pellet analysis.     

许氏平鲉(Sebastes schlegeli)微卫星标记开发及野生、养殖群体遗传多样性分析

对许氏平鲉进行简化基因组测序,设计微卫星引物200对,可稳定扩增的引物190对,占95%。利用一个荣成野生群体对24个多态性较高的微卫星标记进行了评价,每个位点的等位基因数(Na)为2—21个,观测杂合度(Ho)为0.0417—0.9167,期望杂合度(He)为0.0278—0.9722,多态信息含量(PIC)为0.1948—0.9496,结果显示有20个微卫星位点为中高度多态。利用这些引物对荣成野生群体和烟台养殖群体的遗传多样性进行了比较分析,野生和养殖群体的平均等位基因数(Na)分别为8.5000、6.9583,有效等位基因数(Ne)的均值分别为4.5484、3.6365,期望杂合度(He)均值分别为0.6421、0.5840,多态信息含量均值(PIC)分别为0.6088、0.5490,平均香农-威纳指数均值为1.4605、1.2834,但F检验发现无显著差异,发现两个群体的遗传多样性都处于高度多态水平,但养殖群体遗传多样性水平低于野生群体。本研究结果说明许氏平鲉的人工繁育中,通过使用较大数量的亲本进行繁育可有效防止选育群体的遗传多样性降低,但人工定向选育对选育群体的遗传多样性也产生了一定的影响。Bonferroni校正后在两个群体中各有4个位点偏离Hardy-Weinberg平衡。本研究开发的微卫星标记为许氏平鲉遗传图谱构建、分子标记辅助育种等提供了更多标记选择,对野生和养殖群体遗传多样性分析为下一步的遗传育种提供参考。     

Effects of demand estimates on the evaluation and optimality of service centre locations

Public service systems, such as emergency health care, police or fire brigades, are critical for day-to-day functioning of the society. To design and operate these systems efficiently much data needs to be collected and properly utilised. Here, we use the OpenStreetMap (OSM) data to model the demand points (DPs), which approximate the geographical location of customers, and the road network, which is used to access or distribute services. We consider all inhabitants as customers, and therefore to estimate the demand, we use the available population grids. People are changing their location in the course of the day and thus the demand for services is changing accordingly. In this paper, we investigate how the used demand estimate affects the optimal design of a public service system. We calculate and compare efficient designs corresponding to two demand models, a night-time demand model when the majority of inhabitants rest at home and the demand model derived from the 24-hour average of the population density. We propose a simple measure to quantify the differences between population grids and we estimate how the size of differences affects the optimal structure of a public service system. Our analyses reveal that the efficiency of the service system is not only dependent on the placement strategy, but an inappropriate demand model has significant effects when designing a system as well as when evaluating its efficiency.     

Dasymetric Spatiotemporal Interpolation

This research applies the principles of dasymetric mapping to spatiotemporal interpolation by extending the spatial concepts of zone and area to their temporal analogs of interval and duration, respectively. An example application of dasymetric spatiotemporal interpolation using crime event data is presented. Results indicate that dasymetric spatiotemporal interpolation significantly improves the accuracy of estimates over areal or duration weighting. In addition, even when dasymetric interpolation in either the spatial or temporal dimension is relatively weak, combining dasymetric estimation in both space and time dimensions simultaneously has the potential to amplify the accuracy of the overall dasymetric estimation.