The population structural transition effect on rising per capita CO2 emissions: evidence from China

ABSTRACT

The per capita CO₂ emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO₂ emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy.

Key policy insights

• Policymakers should address rising per capita carbon emissions (PCCE) and their spatial divergence in future climate policies, not just total CO₂ emissions.

• The transitioning demographics of ageing and urbanization in China show a nonlinear, inverted U-shaped effect on PCCE instead of a continuously positive effect.

• Based on the nonlinear effect of employment structure on PCCE, policymakers should focus on the relationship between the structural transition of the economy and PCCE in future climate mitigation policies.

     

中国城市异速增长分析

在对国内外城市异速增长方程的讨论进行回顾的基础上,采用1990年、2000年和2005年中国城市建成区和人口普查的城镇人口数据,分析了中国城市用地与城镇人口之间的异速增长关系.在对标度因子的标准值进行充分讨论后.认为1990年中国城市增长是负异速增长,2000年和2005年呈现正异速增长的状态,中国东、西部城市样本也表现出这种规律,而中部城市在1990年,2000年保持了原有的建设用地与人口增长的比例,但在中部崛起的政策下,2005年表现为正异速增长,该结论与中国在流动人口的变化、住房体制改革和开发区快速拓展有密切关系.     

CHALLENGES AND PROBLEMS：CHINA‘S URBAN GOVERNANCE

Chinaˊs urban reforms have brought social progress and development,but a comprehensive national system of social welfare(for example,unemployment insurance,pensions,medical care and public housing)for new migrants from rural areas is lacking.One of the most remarkable changes in Chinese cities in the last decade was a change in so-cial“equality“,with the rise of new poverty both in individual communities and some social groups in urban society.Howev-er,there is little social assistance and public infrastructure for the migrants.Governments or communities or individual should pay attention to the control of new urban poverty and new slums.This paper consider that it is necessary to launch a successful policy,which include mainly:1)accommodating urban growth through low-cost investment projects;2)ur-ban economy depends heavily on successful macroeconomic policy;3)to broaden the three channels linking adjustment to the incidence of urban poverty;4)to restructure urban economic based on the high or new technology;5)to coordi-nate relationship between urban economic growth and environment management for sustainable development of Beijingˊs metropolitan fringe.     

基于GRID的坡耕地退耕压力模型研究

坡耕地退耕还林还草作为保护生态环境的重要措施,已于2000年在长江上游及黄河中上游等地区进行大面积试点。然而,坡耕地退耕还林还草也引发一系列局域性和阶段性的复杂问题,如粮食安全保障、生态移民安置等。这些问题产生的重要根源是坡耕地空间分布差异导致的人口压力状况的空间差异。文章设计了4个基于GRID的坡耕地退耕人口压力指数模型,并以三峡库区的奉节县为例进行了模拟。     

基于城市创新力的长三角城市群高学历流动人口空间溢出效应研究

高学历流动人口作为城市创新隐性主体,是城市发展不可忽略的一股新生力量。选取2014—2018年长三角城市群26个城市中具有普通高等及以上学历的流动人口等相关数据,运用相关数理和空间模型探究高学历流动人口与城市创新能力的空间关联特征及空间溢出效应。结果表明:在长三角城市群26个城市中,高学历流动人口规模与城市创新能力呈现以上海为核心向周边城市等级扩散的“核心-边缘”格局;高学历流动人口具有高度的空间自相关性并对城市创新能力产生明显的影响,且区域创新格局复杂,两者在局部空间的集聚模式存在差异;高学历流动人口对城市创新能力存在显著的正向空间效应,且间接效应强于直接效应。     

中国区域信息空间和人口空间的耦合关联分析

从流动空间角度出发,建立基于关系测度的空间耦合模型,采用复杂网络分析方法和灰色关联分析方法深入探讨区域信息空间和人口空间的耦合格局。研究发现信息空间和人口空间的耦合网络呈现“核心-边缘”模式,北京、上海、广东、天津、新疆和甘肃等耦合核心省市在整个省市内占据主导地位,是其他省市耦合发展所依附的核心。全国省市信息空间和人口空间耦合分布的总体布局呈现“川”型特征,分为高耦合协调型、中耦合磨合型以及低耦合发展型。信息空间和人口空间的耦合主要分为高耦合协调型、中耦合磨合型以及低耦合发展型3种,其中空间的高耦合程度一方面响应了国家加快推进互联互通建设的发展战略,另一方面也是京津冀一体化以及建设丝绸之路经济带的必然结果。     

基于土地利用分类模型和重力模型耦合的人口分布模拟——以武汉市人口数据为例

将土地分类模型和重力模型耦合形成新模型,并以武汉市人口数据为例,用耦合后的新模型模生成武汉市人口网格数据.经数据验证表明,耦合后的新模型在计算精度方面有了较大的提高.     

棉铃虫种群消长及影响因子

耕作制度的改变,为棉铃虫种群数量上升提供了良好的食物源和生态环境;大面积使用化学农药,不仅削弱了天敌的控害作用,也提高了棉铃虫的抗药性;气候变暖,适宜于棉铃虫数量上升。因此,棉铃虫种群增加,棉花、玉米、小麦、豆类、瓜菜等受害也明显加重。要控制棉铃虫的发生程度,首先要防治棉田外一代幼虫和卵,减少一代种群数量;对二代棉铃虫,宜有选择地使用化学农药和生物农药进行防治,并充分发挥天敌的自然控制力,以减少种群数量;三代、四代棉铃虫主要危害作物繁殖器官,直接影响作物的产量和品质,以物理诱杀和玉米诱集带集中诱杀为主,既可控制其危害,又对其天敌无负面影响;五代棉铃虫虽对当年作物产量影响不大,但其种群数量直接影响下一年一代发生量,因此应及时喷施病毒类等生物性药剂,降低其越冬种群,同时也保护自然天敌安全越冬。     

Eastern and Western Poor Cod (Trisopterus minutus capelanus) Populations in the Mediterranean Sea: Evidence from Allozyme and Minisatellite Loci

Abstract. Nine allozyme and two minisatellite loci were used to investigate potential genetic differentiation among three samples of Mediterranean poor cod, Trisopterus minutus capelanus, from the Gulf of Lion, the Tuscan Archipelago and the Aegean Sea. Both types of markers showed consistent results, with F_ST values of 0.0262 and 0.0296 (P < 0.0015, after Bonferroni correction for multiple tests) for allozymes and minisatellites, respectively. Allele frequency heterogeneity tests between pairs of samples showed a clear separation between the two western Mediterranean samples (Gulf of Lion, Tuscan Archipelago) and the eastern one (Aegean Sea). The results indicate that at least two reproductively isolated populations of poor cod occur in the Mediterranean.