城市NOx 人体健康风险评估的GIS 应用研究

城市大气污染是人类目前及未来面临的主要健康威胁之一, 而随着交通的发展NOx 对 人体健康的影响越来越受到重视。基于GIS 技术进行健康风险评估的研究是目前城市环境健康 问题研究的热点。论文采用环境健康风险评估的基本框架( 浓度、暴露、剂量、效应4 个环节) , 应 用GIS 栅格数据模型和域面分析技术构建城市空气质量健康风险空间量化评估模型, 模拟了主 要大气污染物NOx 的剂量—效应函数关系; 并根据污染物的分布进行城市局地尺度NOx 健康风 险评估。     

地质灾害风险区划理论与方法

文章论述了地质灾害风险基本概念 ,地质灾害风险区划原理和区划方法 ,构造了地质灾害风险评价指标和模型 ,建立了地质灾害风险区划的理论基础。     

经济预测模型在土地规划中的应用与分析

主要介绍土地规划时需用到的几种预测模型 ,具体阐述了几种模型的原理 ,并以抚州地区的总人口历史数据为例 ,进行实际的预测与分析 ,从而总结各种模型的优缺点 ,选择最合适的土地规划预测模型。     

State-of-the-art of geotechnical earthquake engineering practice

Major developments in geotechnical earthquake engineering practice over the last 15 years are reviewed. The objectives of the review are to present a coherent view of the current state of practice at the highest level and to examine trends, which may shape practice in the future. Developments are described in the following areas: specification of design ground motions, dynamic response analysis, evaluation of liquefaction potential, evaluation of residual strength of liquefied soil, post-liquefaction displacement analysis, and seismic risk analysis.     

The hazards of eruptions through lakes and seawater

Eruptions through crater lakes or shallow seawater, referred to here as subaqueous eruptions, present hazards from hydromagmatic explosions, such as base surges, lahars, and tsunamis, which may not exist at volcanoes on dry land. We have systematically compiled information from eruptions through surface water in order to understand the circumstances under which these hazards occur and what disastrous effects they have caused in the past. Subaqueous eruptions represent only 8% of all recorded eruptions but have produced about 20% of all fatalities associated with volcanic activity in historical time. Excluding eruptions that have resulted in about a hundred deaths or less, lahars have killed people in the largest number of historical subaqueous eruptions (8), followed by pyroclastic flows (excluding base surges; 5) tsunamis (4), and base surges (2). Subaqueous eruptions have produced lahars primarily on high (>1000 m), steep-sided volcanoes containing small (<1 km diameter) crater lakes. Tsunamis and other water waves have caused death or destroyed man-made structures only at submarine volcanoes and at Lake Taal in the Philippines. In spite of evidence that magma–water mixing makes eruptions more explosive, such explosions and their associated base surges have caused fewer deaths, and have been implicated in fewer eruptions involving large numbers of fatalities than lahars and tsunamis. The latter hazards are more deadly because they travel much farther from a volcano and inundate coastal areas and stream valleys that tend to be densely settled.     

地震的丛集性与断裂间的相互作用:兼论祁连山东段的地震危险性

从地震丛集的大量实例出发,讨论了地震丛集与断裂间相互作用的特点,基本规律、机理问题及问题及对地震预测的意义,在此基础上邓祁连册断裂带东段的地震危险性进行了定性分析,认为１９２７年古浪８．０级地震的发生对此区断裂的地震潜势产生深刻影响。它可能暗示：此区内的未来大震与１９２７年古浪地震分属两个地震丛集期;古浪地震的发生使行作为危险段的金强河－毛毛山断裂上的挤压应力显增大,从而延迟了未来大震的发震时间     

Settlement and sustainability in the Polish Sudetes

The paper summarises the history of human settlement in the Sudetes from the Bronze Age. A more intensive stage was reached in the Middle Ages when settlers from the west established new villages deep in the mountain valleys. By the beginning of the 20th century the Sudetes were already overpopulated but after a near-complete ethnic replacement from a German to a Polish population in 1945–8, population continued to grow until the 1980s. However, the economic system was hardly sustainable by this time. There were many polluting industries in the region and massive transboundary pollution from adjacent areas of Czechoslovakia and Germany had a devastating effect on the forests. Moreover, subsidised state agriculture placed heavy pressure on vulnerable mountain grazings. Since 1989 there has been a process of deindustrialisation in the Sudetes and surrounding areas and, with the disappearance of the state farms and the reduction in subsidies, agriculture is now better adjusted to the natural potential and is complemented by a promising start with agrotourism. The population of the region is growing relatively slowly (0.8% per annum 1956–1999), with the rural areas now in decline. A sustainable future for the region is now a possibility, but while there is a consensus for continued environmental reconstruction, supported by alternative economies, this will have to be carefully managed in the years ahead when EU accession may bring heavier development pressures than those evident at the moment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The population of the Polish countryside: Demography and living conditions

Despite substantial rural-urban migration, 38.1 percent of the population of Poland still live in the countryside and the total numbers are only 0.9mln fewer than in 1946. At present the rural population is increasing and the rate of natural increase (though falling) is higher than in the towns though the productive age group is smaller. However, these human resources are not being properly used and the results can be seen in terms of economic inefficiency, low living standards and a high level of state support. Loss of jobs in factories and state farms results in welfare payments by the state and considerable 'hidden unemployment' on small family farms where profitability is constrained by inefficient use of labour. Poverty among the rural population is evident through a collapse of house building and considerable domestic overcrowding. However, conditions vary considerably across the country and this must be reflected in the economic and social policies drawn up for the new administrative regions introduced in 1999. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Landslide risk analysis between Giri and Tons Rivers in Himachal Himalaya (India)

The area around Sataun in the Sirmur district of Himachal Pradesh, India (falling between the rivers Giri and Tons; both tributaries of the Yamuna River) was studied for landslide vulnerability on behalf of the inhabitants. The study was made using extensive remote sensing data (satellite and airborne). It is well supported by field evidence, demographic and infrastructural details and aided by Geographic Information System (GIS) based techniques. Field observations testify that slope, aspect, geology, tectonic planes, drainage, and land use all influence landslides in the region. These parameters were taken into consideration using the statistical approach of landslide hazard zonation. Using the census data of 1991, vulnerability of the populace to the landslide hazard was accessed. As most of the infrastructure in the region is concentrated around population centres, population data alone was used for vulnerability studies.