基于多源遥感的聚落与多级人口统计 数据的关系分析

在四川省市州、区县和典型村等三级尺度上,探讨了基于多源遥感的聚落面积与多级人口统计数据的关系。首先,从LANSAT TM影像中提取农村和城镇聚落信息,从Quickbird 影像上提取农村聚落及其房屋地基信息。其次,通过叠加统计得到各级统计单元内的聚落面积;再次,在四川省市州和区县尺度上,分别对城乡聚落面积和总人口数、城镇聚落面积和非农业人口数、农村聚落面积和农业人口数等进行相关性分析, 城镇聚落和非农业人口数的相关系数最高,分别为0.962和0.791,并建立了基于城镇聚落面积的非农业人口数估算模型,其模型的判定系数分别为0.926和0.625;最后,在村级尺度上,对农村聚落及其房屋地基面积与农村人口数之间的相关性进行分析,其相关系数分别为0.806和0.825,分别建立基于农村聚落及其房屋地基面积的农村人口数估算模型,其模型的判定系数分别为0.65和0.68。研究表明,LANDSAT TM适用于大尺度的非农业人口估算,估算效果随尺度的降低而有所降低;Quickbird适合于精细尺度的农业人口估算。     

NEW 10BE COSMOGENIC AGES FROM THE VIMMERBY MORAINE CONFIRM THE TIMING OF SCANDINAVIAN ICE SHEET DEGLACIATION IN SOUTHERN SWEDEN

The overall pattern of deglaciation of the southern part of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet has been considered established, although details of the chronology and ice sheet dynamics are less well known. Even less is known for the south Swedish Upland because the area was deglaciated mostly by stagnation. Within this area lies the conspicuous Vimmerby moraine, for which we have used the terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (¹⁰Be) exposure dating technique to derive the exposure age of six glacially transported boulders. The six ¹⁰Be cosmogenic ages are internally consistent, ranging from 14.9 ± 1.5 to 12.4 ± 1.3 ka with a mean of 13.6 ±0.9 ka. Adjusting for the effects of surface erosion, snow burial and glacio-isostatic rebound causes the mean age to increase only by c. 6% to c. 14.4± 0.9 ka. The ¹⁰Be derived age for the Vimmerby moraine is in agreement with previous estimates forthe timing of deglaciation based on radiocarbon dating and varve chronology. This result shows promise for further terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide exposure studies in southern Sweden.     

Estimation of strong seismic ground motion for engineering use in Perth Western Australia

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was performed to determine two alternate magnitude-distance combinations for the 475 yr event, and the worst-case scenario event in Perth, Western Australia. Regional strong ground motion (SGM) time histories on rock sites are used to modify an eastern North America (ENA) seismic model to suit southwest Western Australian (SWWA) conditions. This model is then used to stochastically simulate a set of 475 yr design events and a set of worst-case scenario event for rock sites in the Perth metropolitan area (PMA). The simulated time histories are then used as input to typical soft soil sites in the PMA to estimate surface ground motions. The spectral accelerations of the ground motions on rock and soil sites are calculated and compared with the corresponding design spectra defined in current and previous Australian earthquake loading code. Discussions of the adequacy of the code spectra and the differences to ours, along with implications on structural response and damage are made.     

Emergency management evaluation by a fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system

Emergency risk management (ERM) is a process which involves dealing with risks to the community arising from emergency events. Emergency management evaluation as one of the important parts of ERM aims assessing and improving social preparedness and organizational ability in identifying, analyzing, and treating emergency risks. This study first develops an emergency management evaluation model. It then proposes an extended fuzzy multi-criteria group evaluation method, which can deal with both subjective and objective criteria under multi-levels by a group of evaluators, for emergency management evaluation. A fuzzy multi-criteria group decision support system (FMCGDSS) is then developed to implement the proposed method for the case of emergency operating center/system evaluation.     

A naive uncertainty model for measuring operational risks faced by financial institutions

When insufficient data are available for measuring operational risk faced by a financial institute, most of the models depending on the probability theory are failure. Differing from that we use a probability distribution to depict random uncertainty, in this paper we use a number to represent the naive uncertainty in a phase serving for operational risk identification. The simplest form of the naive uncertainty model for measuring operational risk with multiple phases is the weighted mean with the uncertainties. It is also valid when we have a rough judgment for the uncertainties with intervals or fuzzy values. In this paper, we give a calculation case in lending operational risk to demonstrate the model validity.     

基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估

岩石隧洞建设中面临很大和众多的风险,利用TBM施工的深埋长隧洞受多种不确定因素影响,具有随机性和模糊性,目前的研究方法难以对其进行准确定量分析。通过深入分析影响TBM施工的风险因素,建立了TBM施工风险综合评价指标体系。基于风险影响因素的层次性,提出了TBM施工风险二级模糊综合评判计算模型,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各级因素权重,利用模糊集法确定隶属函数,划分了风险接受等级。以南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞TBM施工为例,应用二级模糊综合评判计算模型对该工程TBM施工风险进行分析,计算结果表明,该方法是合理性实用的。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。     

基于WBS-RBS的地铁基坑故障树风险识别与分析

针对地铁基坑工程环境复杂、影响因素多的特点,提出以故障树分析为基础结合工作分解结构（WBS）-风险分解结构（WBS）进行风险识别的方法。此方法引入WBS-RBS将地铁基坑工程工作分解结构和风险源分解结构耦合判断并说明相应风险因素或风险事件,并按照故障树建树原则根据彼此间的逻辑关系,用逻辑门连接上下层事件,形成地铁基坑工程主要故障树。在此基础上,对风险因素进行敏感性分析并提出相应的预防措施。     

基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析

风险分析是降低边坡灾害损失的有效途径。以地理信息系统（Arcview GIS）为二次开发平台,建立边坡风险评估系统。该系统通过建立边坡的三维地质信息模型,根据模型的物理力学参数等属性数据,运用Monte-Carlo法求出三维边坡的失效概率,在易损性分析的基础上,计算边坡失稳的经济风险和生命风险。实例分析表明,基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析可为相关风险决策提供科学依据     

Land degradation: A global perspective

Land degradation has a long history and is on the increase. It has adverse consequences for people's economies, health and well-being, and for ecosystems, and it is causally linked to population growth and inappropriate land-use practices. It is an urban as well as a rural problem. Solutions require an integrated, geographical approach. Otherwise, some problems may be ignored and others created inadvertently.     

中国城市异速增长分析

在对国内外城市异速增长方程的讨论进行回顾的基础上,采用1990年、2000年和2005年中国城市建成区和人口普查的城镇人口数据,分析了中国城市用地与城镇人口之间的异速增长关系.在对标度因子的标准值进行充分讨论后.认为1990年中国城市增长是负异速增长,2000年和2005年呈现正异速增长的状态,中国东、西部城市样本也表现出这种规律,而中部城市在1990年,2000年保持了原有的建设用地与人口增长的比例,但在中部崛起的政策下,2005年表现为正异速增长,该结论与中国在流动人口的变化、住房体制改革和开发区快速拓展有密切关系.