Population and environment in Australia: issues in the next half century

This paper considers the likely future population in Australia to 2050 and is cast within the context of environmental limitations, to which Griffith Taylor alerted the nation in the 1920s and 1930s, and for which he was vilified in several quarters. While acknowledging the relative accuracy of his long-range forecasts, the arguments here depart from environmental determinism, although varying sets of environmental ethics and values are considered in relation to Australia's global responsibilities and international commitments. It is argued that an increase in population to 26 million by 2050 will not place severe stresses on the physical environment, provided environmental and resource management strategies are put firmly in place, and if consumption and resource use practices are significantly modified. An ideological linkage exists between a resurgent Australian nationalism and a number of environmental perspectives, but one which rejects growth and biological diversity among humans while embracing environmentalism. This inward-looking nationalism–environmentalism is seen as harmful both to Australia's moral integrity as a nation, and in local and world citizenship.     

Modelling the effects of temperature and food on individual growth and reproduction of Daphnia and their consequences on the population level

Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r² = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r² = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl⁻¹ Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.

Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl⁻¹) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions.     

Are assemblages of black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) in different estuaries genetically distinct?

Samples of the estuarine-spawning teleostAcanthopagrus butcheri were collected from nine estuaries and a coastal lake, located in the Pilbara and South-western drainage divisions of Western Australia and distributed along a coastline covering a distance of nearly 2,000 km. The patterns of allozyme variation in these samples were used to explore the extent to which there was variation in the genetic compositions of black bream assemblages in geographically-isolated estuarine systems, and whether or not any such variation could be related to the geographical location or type of estuary. Although only three of 36 scorable loci (Gpi-1, Ldh andMdh-2) exhibited variation that could be used for analysis, there was considerable variation in allele frequencies at these loci among the different samples (mean F_ST=0.166). Much of the detected variation was attributable to differences between the samples collected from the two drainage divisions, which are located in very different climatic regions. Furthermore, the genetic compositions of samples from neighbouring estuaries were typically more similar to each other than to those of samples collected from more distantly-located systems. However, the assemblages in one west coast and two south coast estuaries, that are closed to the ocean for extensive periods of time during the year, all showed very similar genetic compositions. Nevertheless, it is crucial to recognise that, pairwise comparisons of samples collected from the different estuaries, both within and between the two drainage divisions, almost invariably showed statistically significant differences in allele frequencies at one or more loci. Thus, our results indicate that the local populations of black bream in individual estuaries are genetically distinct, which is probably a consequence of both a limited movement by individuals between estuaries and the effects of differences in regional and local environmental conditions.     

Conceptually-based shot noise modeling of streamflows at short time interval

A conceptual-stochastic approach to short time runoff data modelling is proposed, according to the aim of reproducing the hydrological aspects of the streamflow process and of preserving as much as possible the dynamics of the process itself. This latter task implies preservation of streamflow characteristics at higher scales of aggregation and, within a conceptual framework, involves compatibility with models proposed for the runoff process at those scales. At a daily time scale the watershed response to the effective rainfall is considered as deriving from the response of three linear reservoirs, respectively representing contributions to streamflows of large deep aquifers, with over-year response lag, of aquifers which run dry by the end of the dry season and of subsurface runoff. The surface runoff component is regarded as an uncorrelated point process. Considering the occurrences of effective rainfall events as generated by an independent Poisson process, the output of the linear system represents a conceptually-based multiple shot noise process. Model identification and parameter estimation are supported by information related to the aggregated runoff process, in agreement to the conceptual framework proposed, and this allows parameter parsimony, efficient estimation and effectiveness of the streamflow reproduction. Good performances emerged from the model application and testing made with reference to some daily runoff series from Italian basins.     

三峡大坝建成后长江输沙量的减少及其对长江三角洲的影响

三峡大坝建成之后,大量泥沙滞留于库区,出库泥沙量减少,坝下河床冲刷而提供相当数量的泥沙,支流湖泊供沙也发生变化,这将使进入河口地区的泥沙有所减少。三峡大坝以上长江干流和支流建设新的大坝,南水北调、封山育林、退耕还林以及减少水土流失都将进一步减少长江进入河口地区的泥沙。由此估计,三峡大坝建成后的百年内长江输入河口地区的泥沙约为2.0×10⁸～2.5×10⁸t/a;冰后期长江三角洲形成和发育期间的长江年均输沙量为1.84×10⁸～2.28×10⁸t。二者的数值相当接近,然而与近50年的观测(4.33×10⁸t/a)相差甚远,长江流域的气候变化和人类活动可能是造成这一现象的原因。文章着重说明中国和长江上游人口的增长、种植作物的改变可能是水土流失、长江泥沙量增长的主要原因。     

Inclusions in diamonds from the K14 and K10 kimberlites, Buffalo Hills, Alberta, Canada: diamond growth in a plume?

Analyses of mineral inclusions, carbon isotopes, nitrogen contents and nitrogen aggregation states in 29 diamonds from two Buffalo Hills kimberlites in northern Alberta, Canada were conducted. From 25 inclusion bearing diamonds, the following paragenetic abundances were found: peridotitic (48%), eclogitic (32%), eclogitic/websteritic (8%), websteritic (4%), ultradeep? (4%) and unknown (4%). Diamonds containing mineral inclusions of ferropericlase, and mixed eclogitic-asthenospheric-websteritic and eclogitic-websteritic mineral associations suggests the possibility of diamond growth over a range of depths and in a variety of mantle environments (lithosphere, asthenosphere and possibly lower mantle).

Eclogitic diamonds have a broad range of C-isotopic composition (δ¹³C=−21‰ to −5‰). Peridotitic, websteritic and ultradeep diamonds have typical mantle C-isotope values (δ¹³C=−4.9‰ av.), except for two ¹³C-depleted peridotitic (δ¹³C=−11.8‰, −14.6‰) and one ¹³C-depleted websteritic diamond (δ¹³C=−11.9‰). Infrared spectra from 29 diamonds identified two diamond groups: 75% are nitrogen-free (Type II) or have fully aggregated nitrogen defects (Type IaB) with platelet degradation and low to moderate nitrogen contents (av. 330 ppm-N); 25% have lower nitrogen aggregation states and higher nitrogen contents (30% IaB; <1600 ppm-N).

The combined evidence suggests two generations of diamond growth. Type II and Type IaB diamonds with ultradeep, peridotitic, eclogitic and websteritic inclusions crystallised from eclogitic and peridotitic rocks while moving in a dynamic environment from the asthenosphere and possibly the lower mantle to the base of the lithosphere. Mechanisms for diamond movement through the mantle could be by mantle convection, or an ascending plume. The interaction of partial melts with eclogitic and peridotitic lithologies may have produced the intermediate websteritic inclusion compositions, and can explain diamonds of mixed parageneses, and the overlap in C-isotope values between parageneses. Strong deformation and extremely high nitrogen aggregation states in some diamonds may indicate high mantle storage temperatures and strain in the diamond growth environment. A second diamond group, with Type IaA–IaB nitrogen aggregation and peridotitic inclusions, crystallised at the base of the cratonic lithosphere. All diamonds were subsequently sampled by kimberlites and transported to the Earth's surface.     

人口生态生产:人地作用机制下"三江并流"世界遗产保护的新视角

基于不同人口需要而进行的人类活动对“三江并流”区的地理环境产生了巨大影响,形成了独具特色的人地作用机制。这一作用机制一方面对“三江并流”世界遗产的保护构成了威胁,但另一方面,通过人口生态生产,实现人口数量、质量、结构和分布的生态化,改进人类活动,也可优化“三江并流”区的地理环境,保护“三江并流”世界遗产,实现该地区的可持续发展。     

基于出租车上下客点的城市人口流动分析

掌握城市人口流动动态有利于进行交通预测、应急快速响应,以及合理的城市规划。出租车作为城市主要的交通运输工具之一,可以反映城市中人口的流动。本文以出租车上下客点数据为例,对比在工作日以及休息日的人口流动差异,分析出租车数据的空间分布及其动态变化,揭示城市人口流动模式。     

Provenance of Holocene beach sand in the Western Iberian margin: the use of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test for the deciphering of sediment recycling in a modern coastal system

Detrital zircons from Holocene beach sand and igneous zircons from the Cretaceous syenite forming Cape Sines (Western Iberian margin) were dated using laser ablation – inductively coupled plasma – mass spectrometry. The U–Pb ages obtained were used for comparison with previous radiometric data from Carboniferous greywacke, Pliocene–Pleistocene sand and Cretaceous syenite forming the sea cliff at Cape Sines and the contiguous coast. New U–Pb dating of igneous morphologically simple and complex zircons from the syenite of the Sines pluton suggests that the history of zircon crystallization was more extensive (ca 87 to 74 Ma), in contrast to the findings of previous geochronology studies (ca 76 to 74 Ma). The U–Pb ages obtained in Holocene sand revealed a wide interval, ranging from the Cretaceous to the Archean, with predominance of Cretaceous (37%), Palaeozoic (35%) and Neoproterozoic (19%) detrital‐zircon ages. The paucity of round to sub‐rounded grains seems to indicate a short transportation history for most of the Cretaceous zircons (ca 95 to 73 Ma) which are more abundant in the beach sand that was sampled south of Cape Sines. Comparative analysis using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistical method, analysing sub‐populations separately, suggests that the zircon populations of the Carboniferous and Cretaceous rocks forming the sea cliff were reproduced faithfully in Quaternary sand, indicating sediment recycling. The similarity of the pre‐Cretaceous ages (>ca 280 Ma) of detrital zircons found in Holocene sand, as compared with Carboniferous greywacke and Pliocene–Pleistocene sand, provides support for the hypothesis that detritus was reworked into the beach from older sedimentary rocks exposed along the sea cliff. The largest percentage of Cretaceous zircons (<ca 95 Ma) found in Holocene sand, as compared with Pliocene–Pleistocene sand (secondary recycled source), suggests that the Sines pluton was the one of the primary sources that became progressively more exposed to erosion during Quaternary uplift. This work highlights the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov method in comparison of zircon age populations used to identify provenance and sediment recycling in modern and ancient detrital sedimentary sequences.