2010年北京市流动人口预测

针对北京市流动人口样本数据量小、不连续等特点,本文采用Logistic曲线拟合和等维递补灰色预测理论,预测“十一五”期间北京流动人口的增长情况。首先,通过Logistic曲线拟合与外推,掌握流动人口增长的总趋势;其次,选定不同长度的人口序列以建立多个等维递补灰色模型,检验并分析各种预测结果的合理性与不足;最终确定北京市流动人口增长预测的高、中、低方案。实践表明,灰色等维递补预测法对“小样本”、“贫信息”的人口预测是切实可行的。     

海洋围隔生态系中浮游动物的研究

2002-05-20-26在东海进行小尺度船基浮游生物生态系围隔实验,研究浮游动物的群落结构、组成与环境之间的关系,探讨了优势种群的自然繁殖发育期。结果表明,浮游动物的种类组成较简单,优势种明显。浮游动物生物量、丰度及优势种群丰度三者的变化呈逐渐增加趋势。在实验期的1～5d,小拟哲水蚤的无节幼虫和早期幼体占绝对优势,该自然种群的丰度不断增加;随时间推移,无节幼虫逐渐发育为桡足幼体,而后又逐渐发育为成体。因此,本次实验期是实验海区优势种小拟哲水蚤种群的自然繁殖发育盛期。     

福建闽南地区与广西北海地区波纹巴非蛤的形态差异与遗传多样性分析

本研究采用形态学和微卫星分子标记对福建闽南地区（厦门、云霄、惠安）及广西北海4个野生波纹巴非蛤群体进行形态学与遗传多样性分析。主成分与聚类分析结果表明：惠安与北海群体的形态最为相近,其次为云霄群体,而厦门群体的趋异度最大。构建了两个主成分PC1和PC2,其中PC1的贡献率为36.134%,PC2的贡献率为21.443%,累计贡献率为57.577%。建立了4群体的判别函数,判别准确率P₁为43.3%~93.5%,P₂为44.8%~88.0%,综合判别率为66.1%。4个波纹巴非蛤群体的整体遗传多样性较高,群体间遗传分化微弱,属于同1个自由交配组群,NJ系统发育树聚类结果未检测到与地理位置相对应的谱系结构,这可能与人为引种、贸易及增殖放流等活动导致波纹巴非蛤不同群体间频繁基因交流有关。建议今后在波纹巴非蛤的资源管理和开发利用时,加强本地种质资源的保护。     

广西珍珠湾红树种群结构与动态特征

本研究以种群生命表为基础,对位于广西珍珠湾内的桐花树(Aegiceras corniculatum)种群、白骨壤(Avicennia marina)种群、秋茄(Kandelia obovata)种群和木榄(Bruguiera gymnorrhiza)种群采用径级法及匀滑技术,编制种群特定时间生命表,绘制种群存活曲线、死亡率和消失率曲线,进行种群数量动态变化和时间序列分析。结果表明:(1)白骨壤种群、秋茄种群和木榄种群年龄结构呈倒"J"形,种群趋于Deevey-II型,即增长型,主要集中在I龄级,存活曲线、死亡率和消失率曲线均呈现出更新层死亡率较高的特征;(2)桐花树种群年龄结构呈"金字塔"形,属于Deevey-I型,为衰退型,更新层个体数量少,种群总体不具备显著增长性幅度;(3)4种红树种群的数量变化动态指数V_pi和V′_pi均大于0.00%,种群稳定但易受外部环境影响;(4)在未来2、4、6、8个龄级时间后,4种红树种群中老龄级个体能够得到不同程度的补充。     

上海市精细时空尺度人口分布估计与特征分析

城市人口实时分布与动态变化特征是城市规划与综合治理的重要依据。受数据获取手段的局限性,准确地获取城市人口的实时分布状况一直是技术瓶颈,而移动通讯技术的迅速普及为这一问题的解决提供了技术途径。本文基于移动通讯信令的连续轨迹数据,实现了城市精细尺度人口分布时空估算的方法流程,并以上海市为研究区,对城市人口分布特征及时空移动过程进行了量化分析。研究表明：① 在数据方面,基于移动通讯信令数据估算城市人口分布的方式样本覆盖广、时空精度高、时效性较强且支持时空尺度灵活多变的应用研究需求,能够定量地描述城市人口分布时空动态特征且能推算城市真实人口规模;② 在人口分布时空特征方面,上海市在全市尺度上,各时段人口空间分布较为稳定且差异较小,而在中心城区日间人口较夜间人口呈现更为显著的空间集聚特征;③ 在人口移动时空特征方面,城市功能承载区与其它区域之间人口移动很少,早晚高峰期各城市功能承载区之间人口移动均体现为中心城区与其它新城之间的移动,且2个方向移动人数较为平衡;各城市功能承载区内均有超过半数的人口全天仅在其所在城区内部活动。本文的研究成果可为上海城市规划、应急管理、交通出行等提供更精准的科学依据。     

汶川地震灾后重建地区的人口容量分析

Assessment of population carrying capacity is a key task in the reconstruction planning of areas struck by disasters, in which the precision of estimation is required. This study developed a decision-making model for estimating the population capacity of the involved townships and cities in the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake based on the assessment of the suitability for reconstruction of the areas. Through analysis, arable land resources were argued to be the critical constraint of population capacity in these areas. Then, the spatial differentiations of the post-quake development conditions across different regions were analyzed with respect to their natural environments, socio-economic development and quake damages. The expected levels of urbanization, family incomes and income structures, output levels of land, and the reliance of agricultural population on arable land were estimated by different regions. With these parameters, the population capacities of the involved townships and cities in three scenarios were estimated. The total population capacity of the entire areas is abundant compared with the actual post-quake population; however, the status of over-population substantially varies across space. It was suggested to put the emphasis of post-quake resettlement policy on those counties where earthquake had been the main causes of over-population. In the Full Recovery Scenario, three mountain counties were identified including Wenchuan, Beichuan and Maoxian, with a total over-population of about 100,000 people.     

Life after death: shallow‐water Mediterranean invertebrate communities associated with mammal bones

Invertebrate and microbial marine communities associated with mammal bones are interesting and poorly understood habitats, mainly known from studies on deep‐water whale remains. In order to characterize these communities in the shallow‐water Mediterranean, we present here the results of a pioneering experiment using mammal bones. Minke whale, pig and cow bones were experimentally deployed on three different background communities: rocky substrate, soft‐bottom and a Posidonia oceanica meadow. Bones were deployed for a year at about 20 m depth and collected every 3 months, and the invertebrate fauna colonizing the bones was identified to the lowest possible taxonomic level. As expected, mammal bones showed remarkable differences when compared with background communities. Within bones, four different clusters could be identified, primarily on the basis of the polychaete fauna, the most abundant and diverse group in the survey. Clusters A1–A3 corresponded to high to moderately altered successional stages composed by a fauna closer to that of anthropogenically enriched shallow‐water environments. These clusters were characterized by the occurrence of the opportunist polychaetes Ophryotrocha puerilis, Neanthes caudata (Cluster A1), Protodorvillea kefersteini (Cluster A2) and Ophryotrocha alborana (Cluster A3). Cluster B was characterized by the presence of the polychaete Oxydromus pallidus together with typical invertebrate background fauna, which suggests that this community, after a year of deployment, was closer to that found in natural conditions. As opposed to similar shallow‐water studies in other geographic areas, no occurrence of the polychaete Osedax (commonly known as bone‐eating worms) was reported from our experiments. Apart from the study on the invertebrate communities, insights about the population dynamics of three of the most abundant species (O. puerilis, O. alborana, N. caudata) are given as well as remarks on a hypothetical trophic network based on fecal pellet analysis.     

江苏省流动人口城—镇—乡分布的时空分异与影响因素

以江苏省为研究区,探索了2010—2020年间流动人口在城、镇和乡（即城区、镇区和乡村3类地域类型）分布的时空分异和影响因素。研究发现：① 江苏省城和镇流动人口占常住人口的比例普遍增加,但镇的增幅明显高于城,乡的流动人口占比却在近一半的市县出现减少。② 江苏省流动人口苏南—苏中—苏北分布的梯度格局尚未发生根本性改变,苏南仍是吸引流动人口的高地,但苏中和苏北的镇对省内流动人口的吸引显著增强。③ 苏南一些乡和苏中、苏北一些镇流动人口占比有明显提升,体现了乡镇对流动人口的集聚能力。④ 模型结果显示,政府社会投入的增加有利于增强城、镇、乡对流动人口的吸引力;城镇居民恩格尔系数在城和镇对两类流动人口占比的影响有所不同;产业的影响因城、镇和乡的不同而分异：工业在城、镇、乡均为正向影响;产业结构的高级化在城镇仅对省内流动人口占比具有正向作用;农林牧渔业在乡为负向影响。     

天津市人口郊区化特征及其动力因素

基于"五普""六普"街道、乡镇数据,运用GIS及人口密度模型分析天津市人口郊区化的时空演变特征,并根据2005—2015年各区县数据,剖析其动力因素。结果表明:天津市中心区繁荣与郊区化并存,属于市中心发展型郊区化;天津已形成多中心格局,副中心人口聚集效应日益显著;人口郊区化伴随就业岗位的郊区化,但人口和产业存在空间分异现象;土地、住房制度改革及郊区经济发展加快了人口郊区化进程,公共服务的集中延缓了人口向郊区迁移,滨海新区发展、交通与通信网络的现代化为人口向郊区的迁移创造了条件。提出进一步推进城市组团式发展、推动产业结构与布局调整及以公共服务引导人口流动等措施实现中心城区人口向郊区有序分流。     

基于城市创新力的长三角城市群高学历流动人口空间溢出效应研究

高学历流动人口作为城市创新隐性主体,是城市发展不可忽略的一股新生力量。选取2014—2018年长三角城市群26个城市中具有普通高等及以上学历的流动人口等相关数据,运用相关数理和空间模型探究高学历流动人口与城市创新能力的空间关联特征及空间溢出效应。结果表明:在长三角城市群26个城市中,高学历流动人口规模与城市创新能力呈现以上海为核心向周边城市等级扩散的“核心-边缘”格局;高学历流动人口具有高度的空间自相关性并对城市创新能力产生明显的影响,且区域创新格局复杂,两者在局部空间的集聚模式存在差异;高学历流动人口对城市创新能力存在显著的正向空间效应,且间接效应强于直接效应。