Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

县域经济发展水平评价及时空格局演变——以河北省为例

针对河北省县域经济发展特点和时空变化规律的问题,该文将GIS技术与定量分析方法相结合,选取2000年和2010年的15个能够反映河北省县域经济发展状况的指标,采用熵值法系统地测算了河北省136个县的经济发展水平,并利用空间自相关分析法分析了河北省县域经济发展空间格局的演变特征。研究结果表明:河北省县域经济发展依然存在明显的南北差异,并已形成"一线+两点"的经济空间格局;2000—2010年,Moran指数不断下降,高-高集聚区和低-低集聚区的县域数量与土地面积不断减少,河北省县域经济集聚效应减弱,经济发展渐趋均衡。     

胶莱盆地白垩系林寺山组砾岩沉积特征及盆地演化意义

胶莱盆地下白垩统莱阳群底部林寺山组主要由砾岩组成。通过对盆地及周缘18个地点林寺山组砾岩系统的调查,从砾岩组分、砾径和长轴排列方向的统计分析出发,研究该砾岩沉积相类型、盆地物源区、古水流及林寺山组上覆地层中砂岩碎屑锆石U-Pb年龄谱特点,并进一步讨论了盆地演化的意义。研究表明,林寺山组底部砾岩以冲积扇相为主,但不同地点亚、微相类型又有差异。原型胶莱盆地由莱阳、海阳-即墨和诸城-五莲3个独立盆地组成,被6个隆起区所分隔。莱阳盆地的物源主要来自胶北隆起和苏鲁造山带北部;海阳-即墨盆地以苏鲁造山带北部隆起区、即墨-牟平隆起、胶南隆起为主物源区;诸城-五莲盆地以胶南隆起和马山-李党家低隆起为主要物源区。林寺山组砾岩的出现标志着苏鲁造山带大规模塌陷和胶莱盆地的形成。     

东昆仑花石峡北部上二叠统格曲组源区特征:来自碎屑组成和岩石地球化学的证据

东昆仑南缘上二叠统（乐平统）格曲组为一套由砾岩、砂岩和钙质泥岩构成的扇三角洲-浅海碳酸盐台地相沉积组合,记录了东昆仑造山带海西-印支过渡期构造演化过程,是解析该构造演化过程的理想对象。通过分析花石峡北坦地克借地区格曲组碎屑岩的碎屑组成与主量、微量和稀土元素特征,探讨了其物源区属性。结果显示,砂岩类型为长石砂岩和岩屑长石砂岩,石英、长石和岩屑平均含量分别为50.9%、36.8%、12.4%,长石以钾长石为主,岩屑和砾石成分复杂。砂岩的SiO₂、Al₂O₃、TiO₂、TFe₂O₃、MgO、K₂O和Na₂O平均百分含量分别为62.06%、13.26%、0.44%、4.53%、3.02%、2.42%和3.18%;微量元素比值Th/Sc和Th/U较高,平均为1.06和7.71;稀土元素总量∑REE平均120.43×10-6,LREE/HREE和（La/Yb）_N均值分别为9.34和12,轻稀土相对富集,δEu平均为0.96,Eu异常不明显,REE特征与大陆岛弧背景区杂砂岩相似,与东昆仑地体加里东期俯冲-碰撞型火山弧花岗岩具有亲缘性。碎屑组分和主量、微量元素特征与判别图解揭示,格曲组砂岩物源区为海西旋回早期从东昆仑地体裂离的东昆南微地块,源岩以花岗岩为主,变质岩、沉积岩和酸性-基性火山岩较少,其中花岗岩形成构造背景为加里东期的大陆岛弧。结合区域地质和前人研究成果,认为格曲组为前陆盆地系统的隆后盆地沉积。     

不同近岸河床组成情况下岸坡崩塌试验

在弯道水槽中开展6组试验,分别用非黏性土及黏性土填筑河床,研究相同水力作用下近岸河床组成对黏性岸坡崩塌的影响规律。研究发现,在试验给定的岸坡及河床组成情况下,非黏性河床凹冲凸淤且总体表现为淤积,近岸河床及凹岸岸坡冲刷强度大,凸岸附近床面上泥沙掺混较明显;黏性河床及凹岸岸坡均被冲刷,河床主流区冲刷强度比近岸河床及凹岸岸坡大。相较于黏性河床,非黏性河床近凹岸处较易冲刷,水流结构重新调整,凹岸坡脚处水流流速及紊动能可增至2倍左右,环流强度可增至11倍,加速了岸坡崩塌及崩塌体的分解输移;非黏性河床近凹岸坡脚处变形以及凹岸岸坡崩塌量均相对较大,岸坡崩塌强度为河床淤积强度的2~4倍,崩塌物质可充分补给河床的泥沙来源;经水力冲刷后非黏性河床组成情况下形成的河道滩槽高差相对较小,河道横断面相对宽浅。     

Study on the Temporal-Spatial Evolution of Prehistoric Settlements and Its Correlation with Subsistence Strategy and Climate History in the Western Liao River Area

Western Liao River area is one of the most important birthplaces of agricultural civilization in northern China. With recent works like relics survey, site excavation and environmental archaeology going further, the time sequence, cultural content and subsistence strategy history of this area are getting explicit. Questions like ancient exploiting history of natural resources, climate background and cultural impact of subsistence strategy have been paid great attention. Traditional environmental archaeology methods like plant and animal remains analysis are mostly utilized to conduct in-site investigation, current studies rarely adopt quantitative methods to examine the sites’ macro temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern. Based on abundant digitized relic survey data, GIS methods like kernel density analysis are utilized to indicate the temporal-spatial distribution and aggregation pattern of prehistoric cultures in Western Liao River area. The latitudinal, longitudinal and altitudinal migrations of site distributional core are indicated by 3D perspective shift and elevation statistics. By referencing existing studies on subsistence strategy and paleoclimate history, results of spatial analysis are used to reveal the correlation among sites’ temporal-spatial distribution, subsistence strategy adopted and climate variation. This also contributes to our understanding and utilization of massive locational information of prehistoric sites in ancient man-land relationship study.     

矿床成矿系列——五论矿床的成矿系列问题

矿床的成矿系列(简称成矿系列)是矿床学领域的一个理论性概念,由五级序次组成。矿床成矿系列是成矿系列的第二序次,是成矿系列的核心部分。矿床成矿系列的划分,以岩浆、沉积、变质、表生和流体(非岩浆-非变质成因流体)5种成矿作用为基本原则,以成矿地质环境为基础,结合成矿的时段与形成的矿床组合进行划分。本文对矿床成矿系列时空范围、时空组成结构、矿化强度与演化、成矿区带内不同矿床成矿系列之间的演化、叠加和复合作用及对指导找矿的意义进行了论述。     

澜沧江杂岩带小黑江-上允地区蓝片岩的成因及变质演化

通过对澜沧江杂岩带小黑江-上允地区蓝片岩的岩相学、地球化学、成因矿物学以及相平衡模拟的综合研究,阐述蓝片岩的原岩以及变质演化过程。地球化学分析结果显示,蓝片岩具有一致的稀土元素配分模式,具弱Eu正或负异常,稀土元素和微量元素特征与OIB相似,其原岩可能为OIB型玄武岩。详细矿物学研究表明,本区蓝片岩记录了俯冲峰期蓝片岩相变质和峰期后绿片岩相变质两个变质阶段,其矿物组合分别为蓝闪石+钠长石+多硅白云母+绿泥石+绿帘石和蓝闪石+钠长石±阳起石+绿泥石+绿帘石。通过Na_2O-Ca O-Fe O-MgO-Al_2O_3-SiO_2-H_2O-O体系相平衡计算,得到两个阶段的压力范围分别约为0.95 GPa和0.40 GPa。     

内蒙古巴林左旗九井子蛇绿岩锆石U-Pb定年:对西拉木伦河缝合带形成演化的约束

本文对位于西拉木伦河蛇绿岩带东段的九井子蛇绿岩中辉长岩脉以及蛇绿岩的围岩开展了锆石U-Pb定年。结果表明辉长岩的形成时代为(274.7±1.7)Ma,MSWD=0.079,属于早二叠世晚期;结合前人地层、古生物、岩浆岩等方面的资料,表明内蒙古东南部早二叠世晚期还可能存在大洋盆地。与九井子蛇绿岩呈断层接触的粉砂岩碎屑锆石年龄大致构成4个峰值:2350~2700 Ma、1700~2100 Ma、370~470 Ma和250~290 Ma,通过与区域构造热事件的对比分析,表明其物源主要来自中朝古板块的北缘。粉砂岩中最小的锆石年龄为晚二叠世末—早三叠世初((249±4.7)Ma),该年龄与内蒙古东南部海相地层消失的时代、安加拉植物群和华夏植物群出现混生的时代、西伯利亚和中朝古板块古纬度曲线收敛的时代以及区域上与碰撞相关的岩浆岩形成时代大致相同,据此本文认为九井子蛇绿岩的构造侵位时代应为晚二叠世末—早三叠世初,同时也可能代表古亚洲洋的最终闭合时代。     

大凌河河口地区晚更新世晚期以来的沉积环境演化

对大凌河河口地区ZK3钻孔(孔深36.7 m)岩心开展粒度分析、AMS14C年代测定、有孔虫鉴定分析等综合研究,同时结合该地区5口工程钻孔的岩心以及部分测年资料,初步建立了大凌河河口地区晚更新世晚期以来典型的地层序列格架和时空对比框架,揭示该地区晚更新世晚期以来河道-湖沼-滨海/河口湾-浅海-三角洲的沉积演化过程。研究结果表明:大凌河河口地区在8 500 cal a BP前后开始接受海相沉积,并约在4 000 cal a BP之后进入三角洲沉积阶段;晚更新世晚期以来的海平面变化是大凌河河口沉积演化和沉积环境演变的主要控制因素;大凌河对现代辽河三角洲的形成和演化过程可能有较重要的影响。