Confounded by forgotten legacies: Effectively managing watersheds in the contemporary age of unknown unknowns

Contemporary watershed management practices can reflect oversimplifications of relationships between anthropogenic pressures and resource degradation. Remediation and restoration efforts often focus on recent land use practices as the primary driver of hydrologic regime changes. We present a case study that serves as an example to the scientific and watershed management communities of the lasting influences of historic land use practices and natural physical processes on a stream in the central United States listed as impaired by the federal government. Abnormal spatiotemporal streamflow relationships, determined by means of an experimental watershed study, alerted the authors to possible sink/source behavior in the upper‐watershed. Subsequent research uncovered archival evidence of coal mining, which may provide at least partial explanation. Additional investigation identified hydrologic processes associated with natural landscape evolution, noted by early‐20th‐century researchers, which are considered in the context of the current water quality and flow regime. Despite best‐intended management practices, regulatory agencies, scientists, and local decision makers have not accounted for such practices and processes, instead relying on recent development as the proximate cause of designated impairment. We present argumentation that historic land use (coal mining) and landscape processes comprise cumulative yet unconsidered legacy effects that contribute systemically to the observed hydrologic regime of the watershed. Results hold important implications for contemporary watershed management, and support rethinking the case‐by‐case appropriateness of federal and state water impairment listings, and the achievability of restoration efforts in many developing watersheds.     

Numerical modelling of heat shock-assisted rock fracture

This paper presents a numerical investigation on the effects of thermal shock as a pretreatment of rock prior to comminution. More specifically, the effect of heat shock-induced cracks on the uniaxial compressive strength of rock is numerically studied. The chosen constitutive model of rock employs a (strong) embedded discontinuity finite element formulation to describe cracks. The thermomechanical problem that governs the heat shock pretreatment of rocks is considered as an uncoupled problem because of a highly dominating role of the external heat influx. Two solution methods of the global problem are presented: an explicit-explicit dynamic scheme and an implicit-implicit quasi-static scheme. The model performance is tested in simulations on heterogeneous numerical rock samples subjected first to a heat shock pretreatment and then to a mechanical compression test. According to the results, the compressive strength of intact granite rock having the axial splitting failure mode can be substantially reduced by heat shock pretreatment.     

Holocene climate–fire–vegetation interactions at a subalpine watershed in southeastern British Columbia,Canada

Vegetation assemblages and associated disturbance regimes are spatially heterogeneous in mountain ecosystems throughout the world due to the complex terrain and strong environmental gradients. Given this complexity, numerous sites describing postglacial vegetation and fire histories are needed to adequately understand forest development and ecosystem responses to varying climate and disturbance regimes. To gain insight into long-term historical climate–fire–vegetation interactions in southeastern British Columbia, Canada, sedimentological and paleoecological analyses were performed on a sediment core recovered from a small subalpine lake. The pollen assemblages, stomata, and macroremains indicate that from 9500 to 7500 cal yr BP, Pinus-dominated forests occurred within the catchment and Alnus was also present. Climate was an important control of fire and fire frequency was highest at this time, peaking at 8 fires 1000 yr^− 1, yet charcoal accumulation rates were low, indicative of low terrestrial biomass abundance. From 7500 to 4600 cal yr BP, Pinus decreased as Picea, Abies and Larix increased and fire frequencies decreased to 3–6 fires 1000 yr^− 1. Since 7500 cal yr BP the fire regime varied at a millennial scale, driven by forest biomass abundance and fuel accumulation changes. Local scale (bottom-up) controls of fire increased in relative importance since at least 6000 cal yr BP.     

青藏高原热力状况异常与长江中下游地区梅雨关系的相关分析及数值试验

利用观测资料对青藏高原热力状况与长江中下游地区梅雨进行统计分析, 发现两者存在一定的联系:旱、涝年青藏高原下垫面热力状况存在南北反相特征, 即当青藏高原下垫面前冬南侧偏暖 (冷)、北侧偏冷 (暖) 时, 对应长江中下游地区梅雨量易偏少 (多)。而且这种高原下垫面异常热力状况具有持续性, 可以持续维持到夏季。在此基础上, 设计了两组敏感性试验, 分别改变高原下垫面热力状况, 应用NCAR RegCM2区域气候模式进行数值模拟, 模拟结果可以较好的验证上述统计事实。     

北极海冰和北半球500hPa极涡的相互关系

利用NCEP/NCAR 2.5°×2.5°的500 hPa高度场月平均再分析资料和1°×1°的海冰资料分别计算了北半球500 hPa极涡面积、极涡强度指数和北极海冰面积指数,分析了它们的经向分布、周期变化以及长期变化趋势中的突变。结果表明,海冰和极涡在经向分布上有明显差异,就东西半球而言它们的相对位置也不一样。除了都具有4个月、准半年、准1 a、4~5 a和10 a的共同周期外,还呈现出各自的周期变化。北极海冰面积自20世纪80年代以来呈明显减小趋势,北半球极涡面积也呈减小趋势,但是它们发生突变的时间却完全不同。海冰与极涡面积有显著的正相关关系,但海冰和极涡强度、极涡面积和极涡强度之间的关系却纷繁复杂。     

Carbon capture and storage, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, and the escape from the fossil-fuel lock-in

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly depicted as an important element of the carbon dioxide mitigation portfolio. However, critics have warned that CCS might lead to “reinforced fossil fuel lock-in”, by perpetuating a fossil fuel based energy provision system. Due to large-scale investments in CCS infrastructure, the fossil fuel based ‘regime’ would be perpetuated to at least the end of this century.In this paper we investigate if and how CCS could help to avoid reinforcing fossil fuel lock-in. First we develop a set of criteria to estimate the degree of technological lock-in. We apply these criteria to assess the lock-in reinforcement effect of adding CCS to the fossil fuel socio-technical regime (FFR).In principle, carbon dioxide could be captured from any carbon dioxide point source. In the practice of present technological innovations, business strategies, and policy developments, CCS is most often coupled to coal power plants. However, there are many point sources of carbon dioxide that are not directly related to coal or even fossil fuels. For instance, many forms of bio-energy or biomass-based processes generate significant streams of carbon dioxide emissions. Capturing this carbon dioxide which was originally sequestered in biomass could lead to negative carbon dioxide emissions.We use the functional approach of technical innovations systems (TIS) to estimate in more detail the strengths of the “niches” CCS and Bio-Energy with CCS (BECCS). We also assess the orientation of the CCS niche towards the FFR and the risk of crowding out BECCS. Next we develop pathways for developing fossil energy carbon capture and storage, BECCS, and combinations of them, using transition pathways concepts. The outcome is that a large-scale BECCS development could be feasible under certain conditions, thus largely avoiding the risk of reinforced fossil fuel lock-in.     

两次华南持续性暴雨过程中热带西太平洋对流异常作用的比较

利用NOAA的外逸长波辐射资料(OLR)和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料以及华南地区台站降水资料诊断分析了热带西太平洋对流活动在2005年和2006年华南地区持续性暴雨发生的大尺度环流背景上的物理作用.分析表明:2005年6月17～24日华南持续性暴雨过程与热带西太平洋对流的10～25天低频振荡从150 °E附近西传有关,持续性暴雨期间西太平洋副热带高压持续西伸的Gill型环流响应对应于传播到120 °E附近强对流的低频间歇期;2006年5月下旬～6月中旬华南的持续性暴雨可能与热带西太平洋的双热带辐合带(ITCZ)南支对流带异常强盛有关,持续强盛的南支ITCZ使得115～135 °E平均的局地Hadley环流最大上升中心位于0～5 °S,菲律宾海附近区域上升运动的减弱有利于西太平洋副热带高压持续西伸加强.通过比较这两例典型的华南持续性暴雨过程发现,副热带高压在华南地区持续西伸是两次持续性暴雨发生的共同的大尺度环流背景,而热带西太平洋对流活动则通过不同的物理过程影响副热带高压的持续西伸.     

夏季区域极涡异常对塔里木河流域降水的影响

采用1961-2015年夏季大西洋-欧洲极涡面积指数和塔里木河流域43个站降水资料,研究该区域极涡面积异常对该流域降水的影响。结果表明:两者年际变化呈显著的反位相关系;在极涡面积异常偏小（大）年,西风急流在西亚和中亚减弱（增强）,在东亚则相反;500 hPa欧洲中部和贝加尔湖地区的高压脊偏强（偏弱）,东亚低压槽偏弱（偏强）,中亚经向环流增强（减弱）;700 hPa塔里木河流域天气扰动活跃（不活跃）,东风和西南风（西北风）的水汽输送增强,西部和北部等主要降水区水汽辐合（辐散）,该流域降水偏多（偏少）。在极涡面积异常偏小年的夏季,塔里木河流域水平风场和垂直运动从高纬度到低纬度的经向变化分布与大西洋-欧洲区相似,大西洋-欧洲极涡区与塔里木河流域之间存在西北-东南的环流异常分布,大西洋-欧洲极涡面积异常可能通过该环流异常分布影响塔里木河流域及周边风场、水汽输送和垂直运动,进而影响到该流域降水。     

Channel form and processes of the flood-dominated Narmada River,India

The 1300 km long Narmada River flows along a structural lineament, alternating between constricting rocky gorges and rapids, and meandering wide alluvial reaches. Channel forms and processes were studied in a 120 km long section of an alluvial reach. Channel size, shape and bedforms in the Narmada River are related to very large floods which have occurred three times in this century. During such floods the entire 400 m wide channel is utilized and 10–15 m high cliffs on both sides operate as riverbanks. Normally, even the high flows of the south-western monsoon are insufficient to fill the whole channel, and hence their effects are limited to building of discontinuous floodplains between the cliffs and modifying bedforms and bars. A channel-in-channel topography is thus created. The very large floods are also responsible for erosion of the rocky stretches and building of point bars. The river meanders, but its movement is restricted because of (1) rocky gorges and scablands operating as anchor points at intervals, and (2) the presence of high alluvial cliffs which are topped on extremely rare occasions. In spite of being located in a tectonically active zone in a monsoon setting, it is the exceptional high-magnitude floods at irregular intervals which control the form and behaviour of the Narmada River.     

Episodic exhumation of accretionary complexes: Fission-track thermochronologic evidence from the Shimanto Belt and its vicinities, southwest Japan

Abstract Apatite and zircon fission-track (FT) analyses of the Shimanto accretionary complex and its vicinities, southwest Japan, unraveled the episodic material migration of the deep interiors of the accretionary complex. Apatite data with 100°C closure temperature (T_e) generally indicate ~10 Ma cooling throughout the Shimanto complex. In contrast, zircon data with 260°C T_e exhibit a wide range of apparent ages as a consequence of paleotemperature increase to the zircon partial annealing zone. In the Muroto and Kyushu regions, maximum temperatures tend to have been higher in the northern, older part of the complex, with indistinguishable temperature differences between coherent and melange units adjacent to each other. It thus suggests, along with vitrinite reflectance data, that older accretionary units occurring to the north sustain greater maximum burial during the accretion-burial-exhumation process. Zircon data suggest two cooling episodes: ~70 Ma cooling at widespread localities in the Cretaceous Shimanto Belt and Sambagawa Belt, and ~15 Ma cooling in the central Kii Peninsula. The former is consistent with ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar cooling ages from the Sambagawa Belt, whereas the latter slightly predates the widespread 10 Ma apatite cooling ages. These data imply that the extensive material migration and exhumation took place in and around the Shimanto complex in Late Cretaceous as well as in Middle Miocene. Considering tectonic factors to control evolution of accretionary complexes, the episodic migration is best explained by accelerated accretion of sediments due to increased sediment influx at the ancient Shimanto trench, probably derived from massive volcano-plutonic complexes contemporaneously placed inland. Available geo- and thermochronologic data suggest that extensive magmatism triggered regional exhumation twice in the past 100 Ma, shedding new light on the cordilleran orogeny and paired metamorphism concepts.