Analysis of Post-Failure Slope Movements within the Framework of Hazard and Risk Analysis

The paper first recalls briefly a methodological framework to assess landslide hazard and risk analysis in terms of predisposition, triggering andrevealing factors. This framework, that reflects the mechanisms involved in the landslide, is based on the Geotechnical Characterisation of slope movements proposed by Vaunat et al. (1994) and Leroueil et al. (1996). The Geotechnical Characterisation can be schematized by a 3-D matrix having the following axes: types of movement; types ofmaterial; and the four stages of movement: pre-failure, failure, post-failure andreactivation. For each relevant element of this 3-D matrix, there is a characterisationsheet including: the controlling laws and parameters, the predisposition factors, thetriggering or aggravating factors, the revealing factors and the consequences of the movement. The paper focuses afterwards on the post-failure stage, which generallyis the most destructive, and on the mobility index. It is shown that this laterindex can be described as the product of sub-indices associated with failure, brittlenessof the material, ability of the soil to develop pore pressures, geometry of the moving soil mass and characteristics of the terrain. It is also shown how these aspectscan be incorporated into the Geotechnical characterisation of slope movements. This seems to provide a rational basis for examining slope movements at the post-failure stage and assessing associated risks.     

Simulation of individual particle movement in a gravel streambed

A two‐dimensional simulation model of travel distances of individual particles in a gravel‐bed river is presented. The model is based on a number of rules, which include particle size, entrainment, trajectory, distance of movement and entrapment. Particle interactions are controlled by resistance fields defined about each obstacle and critical elevation defined in the model. Resistance fields, particle dropping and critical elevation rules control particle interactions. The interaction rules cause the particles to develop pebble clusters, stone cells and transverse structures (transverse ribs). The simulated travel distances of individual particles are consistent with reported field results. Individual particle travel distances were simulated using two different models; one without interactions between the individual particles and the stationary bed and one with interactions. The case without interactions demonstrates the random nature of sediment transport, and narrow ranges of travel distances. Wider ranges of travel distances, similar to those for natural situations, were obtained for the cases with interactions. The more intense the interaction between the mobile stones and the stationary ones, the wider the range of distances of travel for a given particle size. Modelling the mean travel distance yielded a result similar to that published previously, which was based on empirical data. Well developed bed‐surface structures were obtained for relatively poorly sorted sediment with intense interactions between particles. Transverse structures developed when relatively large particles were allowed to move. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

改进的最小二乘法在水文分析计算中的应用

在水分析计算中，经常涉及到变量之间的线性或非线性拟合，而在拟合各种特性曲线时，通常应用以实测资料与拟合曲线间的误差平方和最小作为目标函数的方法——最小二乘法，但这种方法忽视了所有实测点应与拟合曲线间的相对误差尽量不超过某一百分比的原则，为了达到上述要求，提出了非线性的加权最小二乘法及线性相关方程的最小距离平方和法，探讨改进了传统的最小二乘法达到优化的效果。最小距离平方和法与常用的图解法相比，本法所得成果较为客观；与传统的单方向(x或y方向)最小二乘回归法相比，所求线性方程不会因坐标系的选取而改变。最后应用算例进行了初步讨论。     

共线条件方程式教学中的几个问题

指出了共线条件方程式教学中应注意的一些问题：共线条件方程式是联立的两个平面方程式，存在双主距（fx,fy)时的几何概念，以及它的变换式与直接线性变换关系式的异同点。     

GPS弦距与常规光电测距弦距的比较与分析

比较GPS弦距与常规光电测距弦距的差别，对分析GPS测量误差问题，解决GPS与地面数据联合平差中权的确定问题，以及检核GPS网的解算结果具有重要意义。本文利用一多期复测成果，对其中的一些问题作了初步探讨。     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

日照市短时冰雹定时-定点-定量预报

利用1960～2000年青岛、射阳、徐州3站08时探空资料及日照站08时地面气象资料，分析了日照地区出现的16次降雹天气的时空分布特征，在对降雹天气分型的基础上利用积云数值模式计算降雹因子，用降雹因子和单站要素因子建立历史降雹因子个例库，用历史实况资料建立实况个例库，用距离相似法实现日照地区短时冰雹定时、定点、定量的客观预报。     

建设我国现代大地测量基准的思考

建设现代大地测量基准方面的进展主要表现在IGS服务和ITRF的系列精化 ,ITRF2 0 0 0是ITRF中迄今最为精确、测站最为稠密的地面坐标参考框架 ;2 0 0 1年推出新的WGS84,其成果标以WGS84(G1 1 5 0 )。考虑和顾及现代大地测量的特点 ,结合中国实际 ,我国现代大地测量基准应着重考虑四个方面的基本要素 :高精度、涵盖全部陆海国土、三维、动态。建设我国现代大地测量基准是为用户在我国任何地点、任何时间提供及时、可靠、适用的地理空间基础框架 ,其任务应包括建立我国现代化的平面基准、高程基准和重力基准等。     

基于最短路径的扩展泰森多边形建立

由于传统的泰森多边形是对空间不考虑路径距离的一种分割方式，使得其在很多领域的应用受到了限制，尤其是在城市规划和沿路径分析等方面表现更为突出。针对这种情况，文中提出一种基于最短路径的扩展泰森多边形的建立方法，并对这种泰森多边形的应用前景提出了自己的看法。     

Internet teaching foundation for the Remote Sensing Core Curriculum program

The Remote Sensing Core Curriculum (RSCC) was initiated in 1993 to meet the demands for a college-level set of resources to enhance the quality of education across national and international campuses. The American Society of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing adopted the RSCC in 1996 to sustain support of this educational initiative for its membership and collegiate community. A series of volumes, containing lectures, exercises, and data, is being created by expert contributors to address the different technical fields of remote sensing. The RSCC program is designed to operate on the Internet taking full advantage of the World Wide Web (WWW) technology for distance learning. The issues of curriculum development related to the educational setting, with demands on faculty, students, and facilities, is considered to understand the new paradigms for WW-influenced computer-aided learning. The WWW is shown to be especially appropriate for facilitating remote sensing education with requirements for addressing image data sets and multimedia learning tools. The RSCC is located at http://www.umbc.edu/rscc