气候变暖与海平面上升

本文通过大量实际资料分析认为,现代全球变暖与海平面上升,源于200多年前小冰期冷峰出现后的气候返暖、海平面回升过程演变的结果。近30年的世界海平面上升的速率,有着上世纪80、90年代和本世纪前10年世界平均气温每10年以0．2F°（0．11℃）为梯度的连续抬升为背景。在此以CO。含量为气候指标,划分出了公元200年以来的八个暖段（暖期）。若按冷暖极值距200年或250年计算,则由目前正在发展的暖期,将在公元2050年或2100年前后结束,而后开始降温。作者依据最近30年同一时段国内外验潮资料计算获得的绝对海平面升降速率为＋1．52±0．27mm／a及相对海平面升降速率为＋1．39±0．26mm/a。按照2010年坎昆气候大会决议要求,在对前人有关研究成果进行考量时,对将来的2050和2100年世界海平面预测及我国地面沉降较明显的沿海城市如天津、上海、厦门、海口等相对海平面升降值,进行了测算与评估。     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

杭州湾地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率分析

根据杭州湾口区两台地波雷达5个半月观测的资料,对其中的3 189个有效观测时次的海流数据取样率(CSR)在空间和时间上的变化规律进行了分析,结果表明,在两台雷达波交叉观测的中心区域各测点的地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率高于外围区域,在中心区域海流数据取样率可达98%以上,向外围区域海流数据取样率逐渐平缓递减,到边缘区域海流数据取样率仅在20%以下;地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率有明显的日变化,白天海流数据取样率明显低于夜间;17时海流数据平均取样率达到最低值(约49%),然后很快上升,至02时达最高值(约74%),然后再缓慢下降至17时为止。同时在10时和20时地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率呈现两个相对低值点,可能与人们在这两个时段通讯繁忙所造成的干扰有一定的关系。海流流速对地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率也有较大影响,呈负相关,流速大时海流数据取样率比流速小时的要低,在海流数据取样率大于98%的中心区域,流速和海流数据取样率的相关系数小于-0.8,在海流数据取样率大于60%的区域,流速和海流数据取样率的相关系数小于-0.6,体现明显的相互关联。地波雷达观测的海流数据取样率和潮汐有着每日4次的良好相干,而似乎和风没有显著的关系。希望这些分析对地波雷达以后的推广使用能积累一些经验和参考意见。     

Structure and photosynthetic properties of phytoplankton assemblages in a highly dynamic system, the Northern Adriatic Sea

The photosynthetic properties of phytoplankton populations as related to physical–chemical variations on small temporal and spatial scales and to phytoplankton size structure and pigment spectra were investigated in the Northern Adriatic Sea off the Po River delta in late winter 1997. Large diatoms (fucoxanthin) dominated the phytoplankton in the coastal area whereas small phytoflagellates (mainly 19′-hexanoyloxyfucoxanthin, chlorophyll b, 19′-butanoyloxyfucoxanthin) occurred outside the front. The front was defined by the steep gradient in density in the surface layer separating low-salinity coastal waters from the offshore waters.Physical features of the area strongly influenced phytoplankton biomass distributions, composition and size structure. After high volumes of Po River discharge several gyres and meanders occurred in the area off the river delta in February. Decreasing river discharge and the subsequent disappearance of the gyres and the spreading dilution of the river plume was observed in March. The dynamic circulation of February resulted in high photosynthetic capacity of the abundant phytoplankton population (>3.40 mg m⁻³). In March, the slow circulation and an upper low-salinity water layer, segregated from the deeper layers, resulted in lack of renewal of this water mass. The huge phytoplankton biomass, up to 15.77 mg chl a m⁻³, became nutrient depleted and showed low photosynthetic capacity. In February, an exceptionally high P_max^B, 20.11 mg C (mg chl a)⁻¹ h⁻¹ was recorded in the Po River plume area and average P_max^B was three-fold in February as compared to the March recordings, 10.50 mg C (mg chl a)⁻¹ h⁻¹ and 3.22 mg C (mg chl a)⁻¹ h⁻¹, respectively.The extreme variability and values of phytoplankton biomass in the innermost plume area was not always reflected in primary production. Modeling of circulation patterns and water mass resilience in the area will help to predict phytoplankton response and biomass distributions. In the frontal area, despite a considerable variability in environmental conditions, our findings have shown that the phytoplankton assemblages will compensate for nutrient depression and hydrographic constraints, by means of size and taxonomic composition and, as a result, the variability in the photosynthetic capacity was much less pronounced than that observed for other parameters.     

桂林洞穴滴水对应CaCO3沉积物的稳定同位素特征与环境意义

桂林地区降水及茅茅头大岩滴水滴速和现代碳酸盐的碳氧同位素研究表明:(1)滴水沉积的δ18O达到了同位素沉积平衡,洞穴滴水的δ18O与同期降雨的δ18O值呈正相关关系;(2)在旱季和湿季交替时,滴水δ18O值滞后于降雨δ18O受活塞效应的影响;(3)δ13C难以达到同位素沉积平衡,主要受滴水动力学影响;(4)同一洞穴不同滴水对环境的响应不同,如果洞穴顶板覆盖较厚,水分在土壤和岩层中滞留时间较长,滴水则反映受到平滑作用的降雨,反之则波动较大。     

温度、氮浓度和氮磷比对长心卡帕藻(Kappaphycus alvarezii)吸收氮速率的影响

分别在室内培养箱、海滨室外跑道池和不同自然海区,通过一次性和半连续添加营养、以及检测海区水质和藻体生长的方法,研究了不同氮浓度、温度和氮磷比条件下,长心卡帕藻氮吸收速率的变化和氮吸收速率随时间变化,以及栽培该藻的环境生态贡献。小型实验、中试放大和海区规模栽培结果表明:(1)在10—50μmol/L范围内,该藻吸收氮速率随氮浓度增加而增大;(2)当氮浓度一定时,氮磷比在1—50范围内对该藻吸收氮速率没有产生显著影响(P>0.05);(3)温度对该藻吸收氮速率有显著影响(P<0.05),其中温度在28℃时氮的吸收速率最高;(4)尽管一次性添加营养实验中长心卡帕藻吸收氮速率随时间变化表现出先快后慢的趋势,但是进一步的半连续添加营养实验证实,导致吸收速率下降系底物氮浓度限制,而不是藻本身吸收能力下降,结果还显示卡帕藻具有连续吸收同化无机氮能力;在自然光温度变化和不受底物浓度限制条件下,该藻藻体去除无机氮效率最大维持在0.3μmol/(gFW·h);(5)海南陵水黎安海湾水质数据显示,栽培该藻去除海水富营养化和净化水质作用显著,其去除海水富营养化的年贡献为33t氮素。     

沙质海岸强浪作用下沿岸输沙问题研究

在沙质海岸上修建导流堤、丁坝等会引起局部海域水沙动力条件的改变和海床冲淤调整,因此准确预测沿岸输沙率是海岸工程建设前进行优化设计的基础条件之一.首先构建了刻画高强度推移质输沙过程中固-液混合体运动的理论模型,通过寻求模型的特解并推导成1D沿岸输沙率公式.该公式适宜计算强浪作用下的推移质输沙率,已得到了大型波浪水槽、往复流水道和海滩现场实测输沙率资料的良好验证.通过与物理模型试验实测输沙量结果的比较,进一步表明该公式能够较好地预测沙质海岸在寒潮大风浪(或台风浪)作用下的高强度输沙量(骤淤量).     

Photosynthetic response of floating Ulva prolifera to diurnal changes of in-situ environments on the sea surface

During yellow sea green tide outbreak, the thalli of Ulva prolifera drifted more than 350 km on the sea surface from off shore of Jiangsu Province to Qingdao city, where they were exposed to complex changes of local environments. The purpose of this study is to investigate the response of the thalli to diurnal changes of environments on the sea surface, and a sea surface environment simulator (SSES) was designed to simulate the natural environment of floating U . prolifera mat. A control experiment is designed in the laboratory, which was processed under suitable conditions (20°C for temperature, 72 μmol photons/(m 2 ·s) for light intensity and 30 for salinity), and an in-situ research was conducted to study the photosynthetic responses of floating U . prolifera to diurnal changes of environments. The results show that the photosynthetic efficiency of the thalli decreased gradually with time, and decreased rapidly after 14:00 local time (LT). After exposed to the environment on the sea surface for 6 h, the photosynthetic activity of the thalli decreased significantly. Furthermore, physiological-level and molecular-level experiments revealed that non-photochemical quenching (NPQ), cyclic electron flow (CEF) and energy redistribution between PSI and PSII all played an important role in the strong photosynthetic plasticity of U . prolifera . NPQ is the most important photoprotective responses to environmental changes before 12:00 LT. The results also confirmed that the CEF and energy redistribution between PSI and PSII are the main synergistic eff ects for the thalli to adapt to the environmental changes when the process NPQ cannot work. And the result can further reveal the reason why U . prolifera can adapt to the living condition of long distance drift on the sea surface. The findings of this research could provide a theoretical basis for explaining outbreaks of the green tide and instructing the management of the problem.     

不同氮、磷浓度及配比对铜藻(Sargassum horneri)幼苗生长的影响

采用铜藻(Sargassum horneri)幼苗为实验对象,分别以Na NO3和Na H2PO4为氮源和磷源,研究了不同氮磷质量浓度及氮磷配比对铜藻幼苗生长的影响。进行了氮、磷单因子实验、双因子实验以及不同氮磷配比实验,实验时间为8d。结果表明:氮和磷对铜藻幼苗生长影响极显著(P0.01),且当氮、磷的质量浓度分别为8mg/L、0.4mg/L时,铜藻幼苗的特定生长率最大;交互作用影响不显著(P0.05),不同质量浓度的氮为主效应;不同氮磷质量浓度比影响极显著(P0.01),且当氮磷比为10:1时,铜藻幼苗的特定生长率最大。研究结果为铜藻幼苗培育过程中营养盐的合理调控提供了理论依据。