基于灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计与实现

通过对灰色GM[1,1]模型的算法改进,将改进后的灰色模型与马尔科夫链结合,既可以发挥灰色系统预测精确的特点,又可以利用马尔科夫链对准确预测波动性数据的优势。在灰色马尔科夫链模型的算法基础上,采用Visual Studio 2005开发环境,进行灰色马尔科夫链预测系统的设计。最后利用南方某地区十年来土地利用数据进行系统验证,结果表明,灰色马尔科夫链模型能很大地提高预测的精度和效果,符合实际要求。     

内蒙古贺根山蛇纹岩化流体来源的H-O-B同位素地球化学制约

对内蒙古贺根山蛇绿岩带内3个采样点的蛇纹岩样品开展了主量、微量元素和H-O-B同位素分析,以揭示其构造属性、蛇纹石化温度和流体来源。贺根山蛇纹岩具有低Al_2O_3含量(0.2%~1.3%)、高Mg~#(89~92)特征,为难熔地幔残余。蛇纹岩的U型稀土元素配分模式、相对富集LILE和亏损HFSE的微量元素地球化学特点,反映其原岩为化学成分高度亏损的俯冲带型(SSZ)超基性岩。样品的dD值相对均一(dD=-120‰~-133‰);理论计算显示,这些蛇纹岩的H同位素组成可能是蛇绿岩剥露地表后与区域大气降水发生再平衡作用的结果。贺根山蛇纹岩的d~(18)O变化在4.3‰~9.8‰之间,反映不同地点蛇纹石化的温度存在差别:其中贺根山东样品具有相对较高的d~(18)O值(d~(18)O=7.7‰~9.8‰),蛇纹石化温度为90~130℃,同时部分样品中出现碳酸盐矿物,表明蛇纹石化作用发生在近海底环境;小坝梁样品具有最低的d~(18)O值(d~(18)O=4.3‰~5.0‰),其蛇纹石化温度在205~235℃之间;贺根山南样品的d~(18)O值变化范围较大(d~(18)O=6.0‰~9.7‰),其蛇纹石化温度在90~170℃之间。3个采样点蛇纹岩的d~(11)B值也显示出一定的变化(d~(11)B=9.1‰~14.7‰),指示蛇纹石化流体来源于脱水的蚀变洋壳和海底沉积物;理论模拟和计算结果显示,这些板片流体的d~(11)B值变化在15‰~25‰之间。     

泌阳凹陷毕店地区油藏特征浅析

泌阳凹陷毕店地区经过三十多年的勘探,一直没有取得实质性的突破。2005年以来对该区三维地震资料重新处理与解释攻关,基本具备了精细勘探的物质基础。毕店地区主体已发现的油气藏类型以断层+岩性油气藏为主。通过应用系统的研究思路,以现代石油地质理论为指导,初步探讨毕店地区油藏分布特征与油气成藏的控制作用。     

Structure of the Potential Vorticity of an Explosive Cyclone over the Eastern Asian Region in Late November 2013

An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.     

An observational constraint on the existence of proto-superclusters at z =3.3

Observations have been conducted using the Ooty Radio Telescope in order to place constraints on the evolutionary scenario leading to the formation of the present day superclusters. The experiment attempted to detect 21 cm emission from massive neutral hydrogen condensates at a redshift ofz = 3.3. In an Einstein de-Sitter universe with baryon density Ω = 0.05, about ten condensates were expected in the volume surveyed if superclusters, having H I masses ≃5 × 10₁₅ M _⊙, were the first objects to separate out of the Hubble expansion. The sensitivity of our experiment rules out the existence of these condensates atz = 3.3 unless their lifetimes are less than one-tenth the dispersion in their epoch of formation or the proto-superclusters subtend angles greater than 6 arcmin. The result indicates that superclusters form at z > 3.3 if indeed they were the first objects to condense out of the Hubble flow. An erratum to this article is available at .     

应用河流阶地10Be深度剖面计算千年至十万年尺度流域平均古侵蚀速率

古侵蚀速率的时空变化规律是研究构造-气候-地表侵蚀之间耦合关系的重要线索。已有的研究多侧重于百万年(10⁶)或百年(10²)尺度上的侵蚀速率限定, 但对千年至十万年(10³~10⁵)尺度上的侵蚀速率限定较少。河流阶地的发育能够延续千年至十万年, 其沉积记录保留了大量流域侵蚀信号, 为建立该时间尺度上的流域古侵蚀速率记录提供了理想的数据支撑。本研究介绍了一种千年至十万年尺度上的流域平均古侵蚀速率计算方法。基于河流阶地¹⁰Be深度剖面, 约束阶地表面沉积物的¹⁰Be继承浓度和阶地面废弃年龄, 进而计算出多期阶地发育期间的流域平均古侵蚀速率。随后, 以青藏高原东北缘北祁连西段为例, 基于山前6条河流(自西向东分别为石油河、白杨河、北大河、洪水坝河、丰乐河和马营河)已发表的16个阶地¹⁰Be深度剖面数据(共81个¹⁰Be样品)和7个现代河道沉积物的¹⁰Be浓度数据, 建立了北祁连西段约200 ka以来的流域平均侵蚀速率记录(共23个侵蚀速率值)。结果表明, 北祁连西段千年至十万年尺度上的流域平均古侵蚀速率变化趋势与气候波动曲线之间存在较强的对应性, 揭示了气候变化是引起流域地表侵蚀的关键因素。上述实例证明, 应用河流阶地¹⁰Be深度剖面可有效地计算千年至十万年尺度上的流域平均古侵蚀速率, 并有助于深入剖析构造、气候和地表侵蚀过程三者之间的潜在关系, 进而推动活动造山带地区定量地貌学研究的发展。

     

The Geography of Malnutrition

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of an emerging theme within the subfield of nutritional geography we call the geography of malnutrition. Work relating to malnutrition is a high-priority research topic, with growing relevance to geographical concepts, but there is no overview of geographical approaches to this theme. Using keyword searches in Google Scholar and Web of Science to obtain relevant publications, we identified the major foci of work within this theme: undernutrition, diseases that cause malnutrition, the nutrition transition, and critical and feminist approaches to malnutrition. We review these foci, provide examples of prominent work, and identify areas of research concerning malnutrition that are highly spatial but have yet to be effectively studied using geographic techniques.     

Impacts of Climatic Factors on Runoff Coefficients in Source Regions of the Huanghe River

Runoff coefficients of the source regions of the Huanghe River in 1956–2000 were analyzed in this paper. In the 1990s runoff of Tangnaihai Hydrologic Station of the Huanghe River experienced a serious decrease, which had at- tracted considerable attention. Climate changes have important impact on the water resources availability. From the view of water cycling, runoff coefficients are important indexes of water resources in a particular catchment. Kalinin baseflow separation technique was improved based on the characteristics of precipitation and streamflow. After the separation of runoff coefficient (R/P), baseflow coefficient (Br/P) and direct runoff coefficient (Dr/P) were estimated. Statistic analyses were applied to assessing the impact of precipitation and temperature on runoff coefficients (including Dr/P, Br/P and R/P). The results show that in the source regions of the Huanghe River, mean annual baseflow coefficient was higher than mean annual direct runoff coefficient. Annual runoff coefficients were in direct proportion to annual pre- cipitation and in inverse proportion to annual mean temperature. The decrease of runoff coefficients in the 1990s was closely related to the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature in the same period. Over different sub-basins of the source regions of the Huanghe River, runoff coefficients responded differently to precipitation and temperature. In the area above Jimai Hydrologic Station where annual mean temperature is –3.9oC, temperature is the main factor in- fluencing the runoff coefficients. Runoff coefficients were in inverse relation to temperature, and precipitation had nearly no impact on runoff coefficients. In subbasin between Jimai and Maqu Hydrologic Station Dr/P was mainly affected by precipitation while R/P and Br/P were both significantly influenced by precipitation and temperature. In the area be-tween Maqu and Tangnaihai hydrologic stations all the three runoff coefficients increased with the rising of annual precipitation, while direct runoff coefficient was inversely proportional to temperature. In the source regions of the Huanghe River with the increase of average annual temperature, the impacts of temperature on runoff coefficients be-come insignificant.     

某可溶性软弱基座型斜坡的破坏方式及变形破坏机制

以仁义河特大桥南桥台南侧斜坡为例,分析研究了可溶性软弱基座型斜坡的破坏方式及其变形破坏力学机制,认为该斜坡的失稳破坏主要为崩塌破坏,并存在倾倒(外倾型)、倾滑(内倾型)和基座倾滑3种崩塌破坏方式,形成不同崩塌破坏方式的内在变形机制有弯曲一拉裂、弯曲一层间滑动和拉裂一滑移3种模式,从而为解决该类特殊斜坡工程问题提供了理论依据。     

松潘地区岩金统计成矿予测中泛克立格法的应用

川西北地区是国内重要的岩金普查靶区。本文对松潘地区的地质特征,泛克立格法原理,及在本区的应用情况作了介绍,对主要计算步骤,给出基本结果,对计算获得的有意义异常区,进行地质解释,并将此方法与趋势面分析进行对比。