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21.
从城市异质性视角,以一线城市上海和二线城市南京为例,基于2013年长三角地区社会变迁调查和南京市住房调查数据,利用Logistic模型,剖析了两地青年住房产权获得的影响因素及其差异。研究发现,两个城市青年住房产权获得的影响因素存在较大差异。与南京相比,上海青年居民的住房获得存在更大的区位和制度壁垒,受城市区位、户口、制度因素影响更大,而受教育水平、工作流动性等市场因素以及年龄、是否育有子女等生命历程因素的影响较小。上海,作为一线城市,户口制度仍然处于精准严控阶段,落户门槛相对较高,另外住房价格高企,上海的青年群体在住房产权获得中同时面临着制度层面和市场层面的双重严苛考验。而在二线城市南京,户口政策相对较为宽松,青年群体的住房产权获得所面临的制度性障碍较小,而市场因素更加主导。 相似文献
22.
In semi‐arid Kenya, episodes of agricultural droughts of varying severity and duration occur. The occurrence of these agricultural droughts is associated with seasonal rainfall variability and can be reflected by seasonal soil moisture deficits that significantly affect crop performance and yield. The objective of this study was to stochastically simulate the behaviour of dry and wet spells and rainfall amounts in Iiuni watershed, Kenya. The stochastic behaviour of the longest dry and wet spells (runs) and largest rainfall amounts were simulated using a Markov (order 1) model. There were eight raingauge stations within the watershed. The entire analysis was carried out using probability parameters, i.e. mean, variance, simple and conditional probabilities of dry and rain days. An analysis of variance test (ANOVA ) was used to establish significant differences in rainfall characteristics between the eight stations. An analysis of the number of rain days and rainfall amount per rain day was done on a monthly basis to establish the distribution and reliability of seasonal rainfall. The graphic comparison of simulated cumulative distribution functions (Cdfs) of the longest spells and largest rainfall amounts showed Markovian dependence or persistence. The longest dry spells could extend to 24 days in the long rainy season and 12 in the short rainy season. At 50% (median) probability level, the largest rainfall amounts were 91 mm for the long rainy season and 136 mm for the short rainy season. The short rains were more reliable for crop production than the long rains. The Markov model performed well and gave adequate simulations of the spells and rainfall amounts under semi‐arid conditions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
23.
Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model is developed utilizing surface weather observations of reference stations in each mountain range in northwest Himalaya (NW-Himalaya). The model searches past similar cases from historical dataset of reference observatory in each mountain range based on current situation. The searched past similar cases of each mountain range are used to draw weather forecast for that mountain range in operational weather forecasting mode, three days in advance. The developed analog weather forecast model is tested with the independent dataset of more than 717 days (542 days for Pir Panjal range in HP) of the past 4 winters (2003–2004 to 2006–2007). Independent test results are reasonably good and suggest that there is some possibility of forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode employing analog method over different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. Significant difference in overall accuracy of the model is found for prediction of snow day and no-snow day over different mountain ranges, when weather is predicted under snow day and no-snow day weather forecast categories respectively. In the same mountain range, significant difference is also found in overall accuracy of the model for prediction of snow day and no-snow day for different areas. This can be attributed to their geographical position and topographical differences. The analog weather forecast model performs better than persistence and climatological forecast for day-1 predictions for all the mountain ranges except Karakoram range in NW-Himalaya. The developed analog weather forecast model may help as a guidance tool for forecasting weather in operational weather forecasting mode in different mountain ranges in NW-Himalaya. 相似文献
24.
The annual timing of river flows might indicate changes that are climate related. In this study, trends in timing of low flows for the Reference Hydrometric Basin Network were investigated under three different hypotheses namely: independence, short‐term persistence (STP) and long‐term persistence (LTP). Both summer and winter time series were characterized with scaling behaviour providing strong evidence of LTP. The Mann–Kendall trend test was modified to account for STP and LTP, and used to detect trends in timing of low flows. It was found that considering STP and LTP resulted in a significant decrease in the number of detected trends. Numerical analysis showed that the timing of summer 7‐day low flows exhibited significant trends in 16, 9 and 7% of stations under independence, STP and LTP assumptions, respectively. Timing of summer low flow shifted toward later dates in western Canada, whereas the majority of stations in the east half of the country (except Atlantic Provinces) experienced a shift toward earlier dates. Timing of winter low flow experienced significant trends in 20, 12, and 6% of stations under independence, STP and LTP assumptions, respectively. Shift in timing of winter low flow toward earlier dates was dominant all over the country where it shifted toward earlier dates in up to 3/4 of time series with significant trends. There are local patterns of upward significant/insignificant trends in southeast, southwest and northern Canada. This study shows that timing of low flows in Canada is time dependent; however, addressing the full complexity of memory properties (i.e. short term vs long term) of a natural process is beyond the scope of this study. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
25.
The effect of erosional detachment, transport, and deposition of topsoil on the stock of soil organic matter (SOM) and its association with soil minerals has been a focus of a growing number of studies. A particularly lively debate is currently centered on the questions of whether terrestrial sedimentation of previously eroded SOM may constitute a relevant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and how ‘stable’ such carbon (C) might be on multidecadal timescales. In this commentary, we illustrate how redistribution of eroded SOM within a landscape can create situations that are not adequately described by the jargon commonly used to characterize C turnover dynamics. We argue that more quantitative and scientifically rigorous categories are needed to describe soil C turnover and to promote the development of innovative, numerical models of C dynamics in landscapes characterized by significant mass movement. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
26.
Abstract This paper introduces a reference hydrometric network for Ireland and examines the derived flow archive for evidence of climate-driven trends in mean and high river flows. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests are applied to eight hydroclimatic indicators for fixed and variable (start and end date) records. Spatial coherence and similarities of trends with rainfall suggest they are climate driven; however, large temporal variability makes it difficult to discern widely-expected anthropogenic climate change signals at this point in time. Trends in summer mean flows and recent winter means are at odds with those expected for anthropogenic climate change. High-flow indicators show strong and persistent positive trends, are less affected by variability and may provide earlier climate change signals than mean flows. The results highlight the caution required in using fixed periods of record for trend analysis, recognizing the trade-off between record length, network density and geographic coverage. Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor H. Lins Citation Murphy, C., Harrigan, S., Hall, J., and Wilby, R.L., 2013. Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 755–772. 相似文献
27.
The precipitation of the entire Indian sub-continent is primarily driven by the monsoon wind system, which throws a tough challenge to model changes due to its natural variabilities. Additionally, the unique geographical location and diverse climatic condition of the Indian state of West Bengal (WB) accelerates this challenge even more. Such a situation can be more complicated if the assumption of randomness in the Mann-Kendall (MK) test is not taken care of. The present study inspects the dynamics of precipitation using the original MK test along with its three modified versions in WB. The modified versions are considered to incorporate all the significant autocorrelation coefficient (ACC) along with the short and long term persistence (STP and LTP) in the time series. Results showed that the presence of significant ACC was more common than the LTP behavior. The STP approach produced similar results to the original MK test, while the LTP approach reduced the number of significant trends. When the series was free from the scaling effect, consideration of all significant ACC gave better result in comparison to the STP approach. The annual precipitation is decreasing in large areas of WB, while the coastal areas are receiving increasing trends, which can intricate the estuarine and coastal processes. The Sub-Himalayan region and the western parts of WB are experiencing significant falling trend in monsoon season. Such a decreasing trend can enhance drought vulnerabilities, especially in the western parts of WB. However, the other three seasons (pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) witness the maximum number of non-significant trends. 相似文献
28.
Seasonal and spatial variability in scaling, correlation and wavelet variance parameter of daily streamflow data were investigated using 56 gauging stations from five basins located in two different climate zones. Multifractal temporal scaling properties were detected using a multiplicative cascade model. The wavelet variance parameter yielded persistence properties of the streamflow time series. Seasonal variations were found to be significant in that winter and spring seasons where large‐scale frontal events are dominant showed higher long‐term correlations and less multifractality than did summer and fall seasons. Coherent spatial variations were apparent. The Neches River basin located in a subtropic humid climate zone exhibited high persistence and long‐term correlation as well as less multifractality as compared with other basins. It is found that larger drainage areas tend to have smaller multifractality and higher persistence structure, and this tendency becomes apparent in regions that receive large amounts of precipitation and decreases towards arid regions. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
29.
30.
An ultra-high-pressure (UHP) metamorphic slab at Yangkou Beach near Qingdao in the Sulu region of China consists of blocks of eclogite facies metagabbro, metagranitoid, ultramafic rock and mylonitic orthogneisses enclosed in granitic gneiss. A gradational sequence from incipiently metamorphosed gabbro to completely recrystallized coesite eclogite formed at ultra-high-pressures was identified in a single 30 m block; metagabbro is preserved in the core whereas coesite eclogite occurs along the block margins. The metagabbro contains an igneous assemblage of Pl+Aug+Opx+Qtz+Bt+Ilm/Ti-Mag; it shows relict magmatic textures and reaction coronas. Fine-grained garnet developed along boundaries between plagioclase and other phases; primary plagioclase broke down to Ab+Ky+Ms+Zo±Grt±Amp. Augite is rimmed by sodic augite or omphacite, whereas orthopyroxene is rimmed by a corona of Cum±Act and Omp+Qtz layers or only Omp+Qtz. In transitional rocks, augite and orthopyroxene are totally replaced by omphacite, and the lower-pressure assemblage Ab+Ky+Phn+Zo+Grt coexists with domains of Omp (Jd70–73)+Ky±Phn in pseudomorphs after plagioclase. Both massive and weakly deformed coesite-bearing eclogites contain Omp+Ky+Grt+Phn+Coe/Qtz+Rt, and preserve a faint gabbroic texture. Coesite inclusions in garnet and omphacite exhibit limited conversion to palisade quartz; some intergranular coesite and quartz pseudomorphs after coesite also occur. Assemblages of the coronal stage, transitional and UHP peak occurred at about 540±50 °C at c. 13 kbar, 600–800 °C at ≥15–25 kbar and 800–850 °C at >30 kbar, respectively. Garnet from the coronal- through the transitional- to the eclogite-stage rocks show a decrease in almandine and an increase in grossular±pyrope components; garnet in low-grade rocks contains higher MnO and lower pyrope components. The growth textures of garnet within pseudomorphs after plagioclase or along grain boundaries between plagioclase and other phases are complex; the application of garnet zoning to estimate P–T should be carried out with caution. Some garnet enclosing quartz aggregates as inclusions shows radial growth boundaries; these quartz aggregates, as well as other primary and low-P phases, persisted metastably at UHP conditions due to sluggish reactions resulting from the lack of fluid during prograde and retrograde P–T evolution. 相似文献