三江平原气温降水变化分析——以建三江垦区为例

气温及降水与人类生产生活密切联系,其变化必然会对生态系统和社会经济等产生重大影响。利用三江平原建三江垦区15个农场气象站1965～2002年气温和降水资料,运用气候趋势系数和一元回归分析法进行气候变化分析。结果表明:近40年来本区气温呈显著上升趋势,平均气温以0.50℃/10a幅度升高,不同季节平均气温均呈上升趋势,且冬季增幅最大,达0.82℃/10a。气温升高存在显著的区域差异,最大的增温中心位于南部边缘,气温倾向率大于0.60℃/10a。降水趋势性变化不显著,但仍呈弱减少趋势,年降水量倾向率为-1.90mm/10a,四季降水量以秋季减少最为显著。在此基础上进行气候突变分析,结果表明气温突变出现在1987年,降水突变出现在1980年和1997年,但降水突变不明显。研究三江平原建三江垦区的气候变化对于保障区域粮食安全具有重要的指导意义。     

近2000年古里雅冰芯净积累量与南疆盆地南沿的干湿变化

利用1951-1991年古里雅冰芯净积累量、1951-2000年南疆盆地南沿的降水资料和1958-2000年NCEP/NCAR再分析的大气环流资料,讨论了它们之间的相互关系,并对其机理进行了初步分析,在此基础上建立了南疆盆地南沿近2000年高分辨率的干湿变化序列。     

Vulnerability of Kuwait coast to sea level rise

Assessing coastal vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) at local and regional scales is a fundamental step for designing successful long-term coastal management plans. This study was thus designed to assess Kuwait coastal vulnerability to SLR at four scenarios (.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 m). Potential inundated areas and the number of people at risk were estimated based on these SLR scenarios. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) map of Kuwait was then computed based on the lowest scenario using eight parameters: elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, distance to 20-m isobath, population, land use, cultural heritage and transportation. The geographic distribution of inundated areas at an SLR of .5 m revealed that the northern islands of Kuwait and coastal areas along Kuwait Bay would be highly impacted, whereas the coastal area near Shuaibah Port was the most influenced among the southern coasts. Most of the coastal area exhibited a moderate vulnerability to SLR, especially the northern islands. This study presented an initial vulnerability assessment for Kuwait coasts to SLR, which can be extended with more variables. The integrated remote sensing and geographic information system methodology demonstrated in this study can be applied in similar studies elsewhere.     

利用树木年轮重建阿勒泰地区1572—2014年初夏平均温度

利用阿勒泰地区3个高海拔西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica)采样点的树轮样本,建立树轮宽度区域标准化年表(DKH).通过相关普查发现,DKH年表与阿勒泰地区7个气象站当年6月平均温度显著相关,相关系数为0.705(P<0.00001),表明6月平均温度是影响树木年轮径向生长的主要气候限制因子.用DKH年表可较...     

Chironomids as indicators of climate change: a 100‐lake training set from a subarctic region of northern Sweden (Lapland)

Multivariate numerical analyses (DCA, CCA) were used to study the distribution of chironomids from surface sediments of 100 lakes spanning broad ecoclimatic conditions in northern Swedish Lapland. The study sites range from boreal forest to alpine tundra and are located in a region of relatively low human impact. Of the 19 environmental variables measured, ordination by CCA identified mean July air temperature as one of the most significant variables explaining the distribution and the abundance of chironomids. Lossonignition (LOI), maximum lake depth and mean January air temperature also accounted for significant variation in chironomid assemblages. A quantitative transfer function was created to estimate mean July air temperature from sedimentary chironomid assemblages using weightedaveraging partial least squares regression (WAPLS). The coefficient of determination was relatively high (r² = 0.65) with root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP, based on jack-knifing) of 1.13 °C and maximum bias of 2.1 °C, indicating that chironomids can provide useful quantitative estimates of past changes in mean July air temperature. The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between chironomid composition and July air temperature, but the relationship to LOI and depth are also discussed.     

基于超像元词包特征和主动学习的高分遥感影像变化检测

为解决高分辨率遥感影像变化检测中存在底层特征缺乏语义信息、像元级的检测结果存在“椒盐”现象以及监督分类中样本标注自动化程度较低,本文提出一种基于超像元词包特征和主动学习的变化检测方法。首先采用熵率分割算法获取叠加影像的超像元对象;其次提取两期影像像元点对间的邻近相关影像特征（相关度、斜率和截距）和顾及邻域的纹理变化强度特征（均值、方差、同质性和相异性）,经线性组合作为像元点对的底层特征;然后基于像元点对底层特征利用BOW模型构建超像元词包特征,并采用一种改进标注策略的主动学习方法从无标记样本池中优选信息量较大的样本,且自动标注样本类别;最后训练分类器模型完成变化检测。通过选用2组不同地区的GF-2影像和Worldview-Ⅱ影像作为数据源进行实验,实验结果中2组数据集的F1分数分别为0.8714、0.8554,正确率分别为0.9148、0.9022,漏检率分别为0.1681、0.1868,误检率分别为0.0852、0.0978。结果表明,该法能有效识别变化区域、提高变化检测精度。此外,传统主动学习方法与改进标注策略的主动学习方法的学习曲线对比显示,改进的标注策略可在较低精度损失下,有效提高样本标注自动化程度。     

青海湖湖东沙地风沙沉积物的粒度特征

通过对青海湖湖东沙地克土沙区不同类型沙丘地表沉积物粒度特征的水平变化和0～20 cm垂直变化的分析,可知自然固定沙丘的表层沉积物以细砂为主,其他沙丘以中砂为主,粒度参数随着地形起伏有不同的变化特征;随着深度的增加,粗颗粒逐渐增多,细颗粒逐渐减少,粒度参数随着深度的增加呈波动减小的趋势。通过比较分析,可得出人工治理措施对沙地地表环境的影响较大,能促进细颗粒物质的沉积,有效减少地表的风蚀量。     

西苕溪流域不同土地类型下氮元素输移过程

以西苕溪流域为研究对象,选择最有代表性的5种土地类型,模拟天然大暴雨,通过3次重复实验研究不同形态氮素随暴雨径流及径流沉积物的迁移过程,估算氮素在流域内不同土地利用/土地覆被条件下的损失率。研究结果表明,在相同的降雨条件下,氮素的流失速率和流失量随土地利用/土地覆被类型的不同表现出明显差异,地表径流水相总氮的流失量桑林最大,水田最小。水相不同形态的氮素流失量亦有所不同,悬浮颗粒态氮占地表径流水相总氮的70 %~90 %,水相溶解态氮的流失量以松林为最高,竹林、桑林和水田接近而且较低,不同类型的水相溶解态氮也随土地利用类型的不同表现出各自的特征。各土地类型单位面积、表层10 cm土壤氮素流失高达4.66~9.40 g·m-2,其中随径流沉积物相迁移的氮素占绝大部分(90 % 以上)。估算出的各土地利用类型总氮流失速率,地表径流水相为2.68~14.48 mg·m-2·min-1,径流沉积物相高达100.01~172.67 mg·m-2·min-1。     

南方亚热带季风区将乐县森林植被动态变化及其对气候变化的响应

在全球气候变化背景下,植被动态变化以及植被对气候变化的响应方式已经成为生态学和地理学领域的热点。本文对比分析了南方亚热带季风区将乐县不同类型森林植被对不同时间尺度的干旱响应的差别。基于2000-2017年MODIS-EVI数据及气象站点数据,用最大值合成法、趋势分析法以及相关分析法,分析了森林植被及气象因子的动态变化特征,并对比不同森林植被对气候变化响应的差别。研究表明：① 2000-2017年,研究区植被覆盖度、EVI和降水均显著增加,区域内湿度增加,森林长势渐趋良好;② EVI在生长季初期和末期与同期的降水、温度均显著正相关（P<0.1）,初期森林受降水因子的影响更大,末期受温度因子的影响大;③ 1-3月和周年的气候变化对森林的生长至关重要,长时间尺度的湿度增加对森林生长具有显著的促进作用,SPEI的时间尺度越长与EVI的相关性也越大;④ 针阔混交林与同期温度、降水的相关系数最高,并且与不同时间尺度的SPEI相关性均比较高,属于气候敏感型林型,在生产经营中要谨慎预防气候变化对该林型带来的伤害;⑤ 森林覆盖度变化与降水和SPEI_24的相关性极显著,长时间尺度的降水变化是影响森林植被覆盖率变化的重要因素之一。     

Spectrum characteristics of major ion concentrations at Wuhan sectoin of the Changjiang Rriver

Spectrum analyses of water quality time series have been carried out for five hydrometric stations including Wuhan hydrometric station of the Changjiang(Yangtze) River, etc. The fluctuations of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺ and HCO ₃ ⁻ concentrations in river water under different physical geography conditions have about two-year cycle which is corresponding to hydrometeorological quasi-biannual-oscillation (QBO). Na⁺, Cl⁻ SO ₄ ²⁻ have about two-year cycle in the area lightly affected by human activities while two-year cycle doesn’t exist in the area heavily affected by human activities. All the fluctuations of major ions have about three-month cycle. The river diseharge fluctuation accounts for 43.9%, 45.1%, 54.3%, 33.9%, 30.3% and 42.7% of the variance of Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, HCO ₃ ⁻ , Na⁺, Cl⁻, SO ₄ ²⁻ , respectively, at Wuhan from 1962 to 1985. According to the spectrum characteristic of major ions, the duration of the time series has to be at least 13 years for trend analysis of monthly water quality data. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 49671017). Biography: XIA Xing-hui(1971-), female, a native of Hunan Province, Ph. D. Her research interest includes environmental chemistry.