Understanding pastoral mobility: the case of Senegalese Fulani

Based on a case study from Sahelian Senegal, this paper analyses how various actors perceive the importance of pastoral mobility and presents issues of importance for understanding the use of mobility among Fulani of Ferlo. One knowledge system is a scientific one, the 'new rangeland paradigm'. According to this, pastoral mobility is a means to balance variability in dryland resources; hence, 'nature' is the point of departure. Another knowledge system is local pastoral knowledge. For the pastoralists, the well-being of their animals is the point of departure and mobility is used to ensure that the livestock are in good condition. The paper shows that it is important to distinguish between mobility of pastoralists and of their herd; even though the pastoralists of northern Senegal have become semi-sedentary, their herds are still quite mobile. The pastoralists are willing to move around within a small territory, which they consider their place, but are unwilling to employ large-scale mobility themselves. Mobility is not of importance for their ethnic identity and some use paid herders to care for their livestock. By looking at both knowledge systems, we achieve a better understanding of pastoral mobility and how this may change in the future.     

青海南部冬春季雪灾的气候诊断与预测

根据青海省气象台站的历史积雪等资料, 依据气候诊断方法分析了降水、 积雪的变化特征和2012年冬春季雪灾形成的气候成因.结果表明: 2012年后冬~初春北半球乌拉尔山阻塞高压稳定维持、 青藏高原高度场偏低、 高原低槽和印缅槽活跃、 极地冷空气向南不断扩散, 冷暖空气在高原地区汇合, 在青海南部和北部地面温度梯度大、 锋区强的零温度线两侧形成大量的降水和积雪.期间的降雪量与降雪日数突破历史极值, 最高气温偏低, 积雪持续难以融化, 出现了历史少见的冬、 春季两季连续积雪, 导致玛沁、 甘德、 达日、 玛多等县出现不同程度雪灾, 1982年、 1993年、 1995年、 2008年、 2012年1-3月青海南部牧区的雪灾过程都基本属于这种类型. 1961-2009年高原牧区积雪与环流因子的气候诊断分析显示, 在1-3月北半球环流场上, 若北极涛动负值偏大、 乌拉尔山高压脊偏强、 印缅槽和高原低槽偏深时, 青海南部牧区降雪量大、 积雪量多, 积雪持续的时间长、 雪灾也相对比较严重, 在上述环流因子相反的配置下, 青海南部牧区的雪灾则比较轻.     

近百年中国华北农牧交错带与非洲Sahel 地区环境变化的比较分析

非洲Sahel 地区与中国华北农牧交错带在环境特征及演变过程中体现出许多相似之处, 存在明显内在联系。对两个地带近百年降水变化、植被覆盖、干旱事件和沙尘事件对比分析, 可以 对我国干旱/半干旱地区环境变化的相关科学问题有更好认识。两个地区年降水量序列的年代际 变化趋势有很大相似性。非洲Sahel 地区年降水量在1950s 以前存在明显的年际变化特征, 从 1960s 中期起主要以年代际变化为主; 其大部分地区植被覆盖表现为增长趋势; 降水量年代际变 化可能是影响该地区干旱的重要因素, 温度变化也可能存在作用; 该区沙尘暴频次年际、年代际 变化与降水量相应尺度变化有显著关系, 年均温变化和天气变率可能具有一定影响。华北农牧交 错带年降水量以年际变化为主要特征, 有明显低频波动; 该带偏北和偏东地区植被覆盖增长比较 显著, 南部部分地区植被覆盖呈下降趋势; 降水量年代际变化是影响该地区干旱的重要因素, 但 相同降水量可能引发不同程度的干旱; 该带春季沙尘暴频次与前冬温度变化及天气变率有密切 联系, 与春季降水量也有一定关系。     

青藏高原高寒牧区聚落时空演化及驱动机制——以藏北那曲县为例

以青藏高原北部牧区那曲县为研究对象,基于多时相高清遥感影像精确提取的2005、2010和2017年3期聚落斑块数据,综合运用GIS分析技术定量测度了那曲县聚落演化的总体特征和空间指向特性,并进一步探讨了聚落格局及演化的驱动机制。结果表明：① 2005~2017年,那曲县聚落规模和密度均呈增大态势,由数量增长型扩张转变为规模增大型扩张;聚落形态演变表现出阶段性差异,由空间无序向规整有序转变;聚落以小型为主,面积小于1 hm ²的斑块数占比高达69%,在时间演化上小聚落向大、中型聚落晋级趋势明显;聚落规模空间相关性显著,大斑块集聚区以县城所在地为中心沿青藏公路向西南方向延伸,小斑块集聚区长期围绕那曲镇外围呈“环形”分布。②特殊的自然本底塑造了那曲县聚落低山缓坡趋向和亲水近路特征,受生存环境和生计方式影响,聚落布局呈现避灾特性,聚落演化的优质草场指向性明显,随着高原乡镇经济职能的日益强化,聚落演化逐渐呈现出与内陆城镇化地区类似的乡镇中心地指向。③高海拔、破碎地貌、自然灾害多发易发、草场禀赋差异及水系纵横等自然环境因素塑造了那曲县聚落大范围小规模沿河谷阶地零散分布的基本格局,而政策、市场化与人口增长、区位条件、管理制度及文化观念等社会人文因素是推动聚落演化的主要动力。     

中国人口疏密区分界线的历史变迁及数学拟合与地理意义

采用历史时间断面方法和现代空间分析方法,对中国西汉、西晋、唐代、北宋、明代、清代、现代7个时间断面的人口分布进行分析。结果发现：① 中国人口疏密区的分界线就是中国农牧区的分界线,中国人口分布的大格局由中国农耕区和畜牧区的空间分异奠定,理论上中国人口疏密区分界线就是中国农牧交错带的拟合线。② 两千多年的历史证明,中国农牧交错带是一个弧状地带,不能用直线拟合,只能用弧线拟合;“沈天大弧线”（沈阳—天水—大理弧线）是该交错带的函数拟合线,“山兰防弧线”（山海关—兰州—防城港弧线）是该交错带的内缘拟合线,也是中原王朝衰弱时期的农牧分界线;“沈兰西弧线”（沈阳—兰州—西双版纳弧线）是该交错带的外缘拟合线,也是中原王朝强盛时期的农牧分界线;直线的“爱辉—腾冲线”理论上不能拟合弧状的中国农牧交错带,但因为它碰巧是中国农牧交错带的函数拟合线的切线,因而也能较好地刻画中国人口的宏观分异格局。③ 中国人口疏密区分界线有着丰富的地理学意义：一是分界线本身就是农牧业分界线;二是分界线与海岸线围成的区域是中国的“国家核心区”;三是分界线最大限度地刻画了中国东南和西北的自然地理和人文地理的分异。     

论中国北方农牧交错带的生态环境建设与系统功能整合

在简要分析中国北方农牧交错带形成历史和现状的基础上,提出了北方地区生态环境建设必须从产业结构调整出发、进行系统功能整合的思路：①把人工饲草业-舍饲畜牧业摆在农牧交错带经济发展的优先位置,推行新型畜牧业经营管理模式,促进天然草场改良复壮;②发展"绿色"农林牧产品精细加工业,建立多元化产业结构;③发挥能源和矿产资源优势,合理利用水资源,限制以破坏环境为代价的产业的发展;④推广区域综合治理与生态恢复技术,加大退耕还林还草的力度;⑤山、水、路、农、林、牧统一规划,实现生态系统在景观水平上的整合。     

浅谈青海省少数民族地区的防震减灾工作

分析了青海省少数民族地区的区域特色及震害特点，研究了如何在这些地区开展防震减灾工作及相关地震对策。     

Analysis of survival curves in seasonally mated pastoral goat herds in northern Kenya using logistic regression techniques

In order to assess the effect of controlled seasonal breeding on survival performance of pastoral goat flocks, a systematic breeding programme was initiated in a herd of small East African goats over a period of 4 years in Isiolo District, northern Kenya. This papers presents an analysis of survival rates observed in six different mating seasons. The statistical analysis is based on modelling hazard functions parametrically over time using logistic regression and polynomial spline functions. With respect to kid survival, litter size and parity of dam failed to reach statistical significance after adjustment was made for the effects of birth weight and milk yield until weaning. Highly significant interactions were found between time factors and the effect of mating season, indicating non-proportionality of death risks across mating seasons. Confining mating to the period between June and November is likely to confer a distinctive advantage in terms of young livestock survival. In contrast, joining does during the short dry season leads to kid mortality rates of about 50%, and should therefore be avoided. Doe survival was evaluated in terms of mating season, production cycle, parity, and reproductive status. The ranking of mating season groups with respect to doe survival was similar to that observed in kids, although the differences were much smaller and non-significant. The lowest annual mortality rate was observed when breeding females were mated during the long dry season. It is concluded that confining breeding to the long dry season can be an effective management intervention to reduce mortality rates in pastoral goat flocks.     

Pauperizing the pastoral periphery: the marginalization of herding communities in the world’s dry lands

Environmental degradation and other socio-economic problems are too often discerned in contemporary pastoral systems in the wake of global economic change. This paper identifies cases where pastoral people respond to external pressures and opportunities in positive ways and adapt to changes. We hope that by doing this a framework of pastoral adaptations can be developed. The first part of this paper focuses on impacts of global economic change, which are mostly negative in nature. Through an extensive literature search in geography, anthropology, range management, and development field, the second part introduces cases that we categorize as positive adaptations.