福建及台湾海峡地震预警工程架构探索

福建及台湾海峡是海陆板块碰撞到板内地震活动过渡带 ,东侧毗邻台湾板缘地震带 ,西侧为福建内陆板内地震活动区。这是得天独厚的观测研究大陆边缘地震构造带强震活动及板块动力学的良好地域。当前 ,我国进入全面建设小康社会历史时期 ,为防御地震造成社会灾害 ,实现以人为本 ,防患于未然 ,势必需要建构一个实用化的地震预警工程及其机制。本文即是在对福建及台湾海峡近 30多年以来观测研究的基础上 ,提出应用现代空间技术、数字地震、计算机网络等技术架构地震预警工程与机制的一种设想。     

Spatial and seasonal variability of sediment accumulation potential through controlled flooding of the beels located in the polders of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta of Southwest Bangladesh

The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta plain within Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable to relative sea level rise (RSLR) in the world especially under current anthropogenically modified (i.e., embanked) conditions. Tidal river management (TRM) as practiced in coastal regions of Bangladesh may provide an opportunity to combat RSLR by raising the land level through controlled sedimentation inside beels (depression within embanked polders) with re-opening of polders. To date, TRM has been applied to tide-dominated coastal regions, but the potential applicability of TRM for the beels within the polders of river-dominated and mixed flow (MF) regimes remains to be assessed. We apply a calibrated 2D numerical hydromorphodynamic model to quantify sediment deposition in a beel flooded through breaching of the polder dike under conditions of river-dominated, tide-dominated and MF regimes for different seasons and applying different regulation schemes for the flow into the beel. Simulation results show considerable seasonality in sediment deposition with largest deposition during the monsoon season. The potential of controlled flooding is highest in the tide-dominated region, where sediment accumulation can be up to 28 times higher than in the river-dominated region. Regulating flow into a beel increases trapping efficiency, but results in slightly lower total deposition than without regulation. We conclude that re-establishing flooding of the beel within the polder without regulating the flow into the beel through breaching of the polder dike is a promising strategy for the mixed and tide-dominated flow regions in the delta as the sediment accumulation can raise the land surface at a higher rate than RSLR and effective SLR (ESLR). In the more upstream river-dominated section of the delta, accumulation rates would be much lower, but the pressure of sea level rise on these areas is lower as well. Owing to the abundant availability of sediment, application of controlled flooding like TRM therefore provides an opportunity to counteract the impact of RSLR and ESLR by means of land raising, particularly along the tidal river reaches in the GBM delta.     

Analogue study of particle segregation in pyroclastic density currents, with implications for the emplacement mechanisms of large ignimbrites

Abstract Analogue flume experiments were conducted to investigate the transport and sedimentation behaviour of turbulent pyroclastic density currents. The experimental currents were scaled approximately to the natural environment in three ways: (1) they were fully turbulent; (2) they had a very wide range of particle sizes and associated Rouse numbers (the ratio of particle settling velocity to effective turbulent eddy velocity in the current); and (3) they contained particles of two different densities. Two sets of surge‐type experiments were conducted in a 5 m long, water‐filled lock‐exchange flume at five different volumetric particle concentrations from 0·6% to 23%. In one set (one‐component experiments), the currents contained just dense particles; in the other set (two‐component experiments), they contained both light and dense particles in equal volume proportions. In both sets of experiments, the population of each component had a log‐normal size distribution. In the two‐component experiments, the size range of the light particle population was selected in order to be in hydrodynamic equivalence with that of the dense particles. Dense particles were normally graded, both vertically and downstream, in the deposits from both sets of experiments. The mass loading (normalized to the initial mass of the suspension) and grain size of the dense component in the deposits decreased with distance from the reservoir and were insensitive to initial total particle concentration in the currents. On the other hand, in the two‐component experiments, the light particles were extremely sensitive to concentration. They were deposited in hydrodynamic equivalence with the dense particles from dilute currents, but were segregated efficiently at concentrations higher than a few per cent. With increasing particle concentration, the large, light particles were carried progressively further down the flume because of buoyancy effects. Deposits from the high‐concentration currents exhibited reverse vertical grading of the large, light particles. Efficient segregation of the light component was observed even if the bulk density of the current was less than that of the light particles. In both sets of experiments, marked inflexions in the rate of downstream decline in mass loading and maximum grain size of the dense component can be attributed to the presence of two different particle settling regimes in the flow: (1) particles with Rouse numbers >2·5, which did not respond to the turbulence and settled rapidly; and (2) particles with Rouse numbers <2·5, which followed the turbulent eddies and settled slowly. The results are applied to the transport and sedimentation dynamics of pyroclastic density currents that generate large, widespread ignimbrites. Field data fail to reveal significant departures from aerodynamic equivalence between pumice and lithic clasts in three such ignimbrites: the particulate loads of some large ignimbrites are transported principally in turbulent suspensions of low concentration. In some ignimbrites, the well‐developed inflexions in curves of maximum lithic (ML) size vs. distance can be attributed to the existence of distinct high and low Rouse number particle settling regimes that mark the transition from an overcharged state to one in which the residual particulate load is transported more effectively by turbulence.     

Analysis of radial movement of an unconfined leaky aquifer due to well pumping and injection

Radial movement of an unconfined leaky aquifer was studied with respect to hydraulic forces that are induced by well recharge and discharge. New analytic solutions in the velocity and displacement fields were found and applied to describe transient movement in an unconfined leaky aquifer. Linear momentum and mass balance of saturated porous sediments, the Darcy-Gersevanov law, and the analytic solution of hydraulic drawdown for unsteady flow within the unconfined leaky aquifer were introduced to find the new solutions. Analytic results indicate that the nonlinear relation between the initial hydraulic head (h₀) and the well function has an insignificant effect on the aquifer transient movement when the drawdown s<0.02h ₀. When the well function is simplified with different assumptions and pumping conditions, the new solutions correspondingly reduce to cases that are similar to the Hantush-Jacob, Muskat, and Theis transient movement of a confined leaky aquifer. It was found that large leakance is important in slowing radial movement and reducing aquifer deformation. Flow velocity in the aquifer is more responsive to leakance than to cumulative displacement within the aquifer. The zones and boundary with tensile stress can be located using the same approach applied to a confined aquifer for risk assessment of earth fissuring.

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Résumé Le mouvement radial dans un aquifère semi-perméable libre a été étudié en considérant les forces hydrauliques induites par la recharge et le prélèvement au niveau d’un puits. De nouvelles solutions analytiques des champs de vitesse et de déplacement ont été trouvées et appliquées pour décrire le mouvement transitoire dans un aquifère semi-perméable libre. Pour trouver les nouvelles solutions, le moment linéaire et le bilan de masse dans les sédiments poreux saturés, la loi de Darcy-Gersevanov, et la solution analytique du rabattement hydraulique pour un écoulement transitoire dans un aquifère semi-perméable libre sont pris en compte. Les résultats analytiques montrent que la relation non-linéaire entre le potentiel hydraulique initial (h₀) et la fonction de puits a un effet insignifiant sur le mouvement transitoire de l’aquifère quand le rabattements s <0.02h₀. Si la fonction de puits est simplifiée en tenant compte de différentes hypothèses et conditions de pompage, les nouvelles solutions se réduisent en conséquence à des cas similaires au mouvement transitoire dans un aquifère semi-perméable captif selon Hantush-Jacob, Muskat, et Theis. Il s’est avéré qu’une drainance élevée est importante pour le ralentissement du mouvement radial et la réduction de la déformation de l’aquifère. La vitesse d’écoulement dans l’aquifère est plus sensible à la drainance qu’au déplacement cumulé dans l’aquifère. Les zones et la frontière présentant des contraintes de traction peuvent être localisées en utilisant la même approche appliquée à un aquifère captif pour l’évaluation des risques de fissuration du sol.

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Resumen Se ha estudiado el movimiento radial en un acuífero no confinado con fuga en relación a las fuerzas hidráulicas que son inducidas por la descarga y recarga del pozo. Se encontraron nuevas soluciones analíticas en los campos de desplazamiento y velocidad, las cuales se aplicaron para describir el movimiento transitorio en un acuífero no confinado con fuga. Se han introducido cálculos de balance de masa y momentum lineal de los sedimentos porosos saturados, la Ley Darcy-Gersevanov, y la solución analítica de descenso hidráulico para flujo sin régimen permanente dentro del acuífero no confinado con goteo para encontrar las nuevas soluciones. Los resultados analíticos indican que la relación no lineal entre la presión hidráulica inicial (h₀) y la función del pozo tiene efecto insignificante en el movimiento transitorio del acuífero cuando el descenso s < 0.02h₀. Cuando se simplifica la función del pozo en base a diferentes supuestos y condiciones de bombeo se reducen las nuevas soluciones a casos que son similares a el movimiento transitorio Hantush-Jacob, Muskat, y Theis de un acuífero confinado con goteo. Se encontró que las fugas grandes son importantes en la disminución del movimiento radial y en la reducción de la deformación del acuífero. La velocidad de flujo en el acuífero responde más a las fugas que al desplazamiento acumulativo dentro del acuífero. Pueden localizarse zonas y límites con esfuerzos tensionales usando el mismo enfoque aplicado a acuíferos confinados para evaluación de riesgo de generación de fracturas en el terreno.

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陡坡复杂扇体油藏评价思路与方法

本文以东营凹陷北部陡坡带为例论述了陆相断陷盆地陡坡复杂扇体油藏评价思路与方法。分析了陡坡带特殊性及复杂性,针对复杂扇体油藏精细等时地层对比、控砂机制、有效储层划分和油气分布的纵向分带性提出了有效的研究方法,并形成了一整套有针对性的勘探技术流程,在东营凹陷乃至济阳坳陷具有较好的推广前景。     

A coupled model for prediction of settlement and gas flow in MSW landfills

Prediction of long‐term settlement and control of gas pollution to the environment are two principle concerns during the management of municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills. The behavior of settlement and gas flow in MSW landfills is complicated due to the combined effect of mechanical deformation of the solid skeleton and continuous biodegradation of the waste. A one‐dimensional settlement and gas flow model is presented in this paper, which is capable of predicting time evolution of settlement as well as temporal and spatial distribution of gas pressure within multi‐layered landfills under a variety of operating scenarios. The analytical solution to the novel model is evaluated with numerical simulation and field measurements. The resulting efficiency and accuracy highlight the capability of the proposed model to reproduce the settlement behavior and gas flow in MSW landfills. The influences of operating conditions and waste properties on settlement and gas pressure are examined for typical MSW landfills. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

辽河盆地东部凹陷热历史及构造—热演化特征

根据辽河盆地东部凹陷大地热流测量和镜质体反射率数据,恢复了该区的热历史,结果表明:东部凹陷热流呈现古热流高现今热流低的变化特征,沙河街组三段沉积期到东营组沉积期(距今43～25Ma)盆地热流为66～82mWm2,现今热流值为47～70mWm2。构造沉降史分析显示,盆地经历了早期的裂谷阶段(距今43～25Ma)和后期的热沉降阶段,裂谷阶段包含了两个裂谷亚旋回。盆地现今较低的大地热流和较高的古热流及典型的裂谷型构造沉降样式为东部凹陷的构造—热演化提供了重要认识。     

Geomechanical modelling to assess fault integrity at the CO2CRC Otway Project,Australia

This paper presents the first published 3D geomechanical modelling study of the CO2CRC Otway Project, located in the state of Victoria, Australia. The results of this work contribute to one of the main objectives of the CO2CRC, which is to demonstrate the feasibility of CO₂ storage in a depleted gas reservoir. With this aim in mind, a one-way coupled flow and geomechanics model is presented, with the capability of predicting changes to the in situ stress field caused by changes in reservoir pressure owing to CO₂ production and injection. A parametric study investigating the pore pressures required to reactivate key, reservoir-bounding faults has been conducted, and the results from the numerical simulation and analytical analysis are compared. The numerical simulation indicates that the critical pore fluid pressure to cause fault reactivation is 1.15 times the original pressure as opposed to 1.5 times for the comparable analytical model. Possible reasons for the differences between the numerical and analytical models can be ascribed to the higher degree of complexity incorporated in the numerical model. Heterogeneity in terms of lateral variations of hydrological and mechanical parameters, effect of topography, presence of faults and interaction between cells are considered to be the main sources for the different estimation of critical pore pressure. The numerical model, which incorporates this greater complexity, is able then to better describe the state of stress that acts in the subsurface compared with a simple 1D analytical model. Moreover, the reactivation pressures depend mainly on the state of stress described; therefore we suggest that numerical models be performed when possible.     

承压含水层井流-盖层弯曲效应的解析理论

指出承压含水层盖层的弯曲变形与开采井周围的径向地下水运动存在相互作用, 而这一效应在传统的井流理论中没有被认识到.通过引入弹性薄板理论, 建立了无越流的承压含水层井流-顶板弯曲效应的解析模型, 同时考虑了含水层和水的压缩性, 结果表明Theis井流方程给出的抽水降深偏小.在此基础上推导了有越流承压含水层井流-盖层弯曲效应的偏微分方程, 求出了解析解, 并与传统理论的结果进行了对比, 表明Hantush-Jacob公式计算的降深也是偏小的.在抽水井附近和抽水初期, 传统理论可能导致显著的相对误差.      

数值模拟法在张掖市东郊水源地保护区划分中的应用

根据张掖东盆地水文地质条件和水源地地下水开发利用现状,采用Visual Modflow4.1软件分别建立地下水水流和水质模型,通过计算污染物污染负荷值确定运移污染质及其初始浓度,在水流模型预测水源地未来开采形成的稳定流畅环境下运行水质模型,模拟计算该污染质在规定时间内到达水源地捕获带的位置,运移100天的范围划定为水源...