The conventional method of risk analysis (with risk as a product of probability and consequences) does not allow for a pluralistic approach that includes the various risk perceptions of stakeholders or lay people within a given social system. This article introduces a methodology that combines the virtues of three different methods: the quantifiable conventional approach to risk; the taxonomic analysis of perceived risk; and the analytical framework of a spatial multi-criteria analysis. This combination of methods is applied to the case study ‘Ebro Delta’ in Spain as part of the European sixth framework project ‘Floodsite’. First, a typology for flood hazards is developed based on individual and/or stakeholders’ judgements. Awareness, worry and preparedness are the three characteristics that typify a community to reflect various levels of ignorance, perceived security, perceived control or desired risk reduction. Applying ‘worry’ as the central characteristic, a trade-off is hypothesized between Worry and the benefits groups in society receive from a risky situation. Second, this trade-off is applied in Spatial Multi-Criteria Analysis (SMCA). MCA is the vehicle that often accompanies participatory processes, where governmental bodies have to decide on issues in which local stakeholders have a say. By using risk perception-scores as weights in a standard MCA procedure a new decision framework for risk assessment is developed. Finally, the case of sea-level rise in the Ebro Delta in Spain serves as an illustration of the applied methodology. Risk perception information has been collected with help of an on-site survey. Risk perception enters the multi-criteria analysis as complementary weights for the criteria risk and benefit. The results of the survey are applied to a set of scenarios representing both sea-level rise and land subsidence for a time span of 50 years. Land use alternatives have been presented to stakeholders in order to provide the regional decision maker with societal preferences for handling risk. Even with limited resources a characteristic ‘risk profile’ could be drawn that enables the decision maker to develop a suitable land use policy. 相似文献
Abstract. The behavioural ecology of certain northern Adriatic fishes was observed from January to April at a water temperature of 7–11 oC. The fishes studied here do not migrate to deeper waters. Most of the benthic fishes show a similar distribution over the substrate in winter and in summer; in winter, however, they are very inactive and hide in the substrate. Suprabenthic fishes aggregate in littoral caves where they form dense, inactive, mixed aggregations. Certain hemipelagic and pelagic fishes join to form very dense aggregations at specific sites in the open waters of bays. Littoral predators display high feeding activity at a time when their prey is inactive. I present a hypothesis concerning possible implications of seasonally cyclic environmental temperatures for a sympatric community of non-migrating fishes. 相似文献
In order to examine the responses of primary productivity in the southern coastal sea of Japan to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) in the 20th century, sedimentary records of diatom productivity (diatom valve fluxes) were reconstructed using core
samples from the Bungo Channel (BC) in southwest Japan. The record of the Thalassionema spp. flux—the best index of fall primary productivity in the BC—indicated a multidecadal-scale duration with a low flux (1943–1982)
and those with a high flux (1913–1943 and 1982–2001); apparent shifts were recognized in 1943 and 1982. The shift in 1982
was also recognized in the flux records of other early summer to fall predominant genera in the BC and, previously, in the
biogenic silica records from a broad region of the southeast BC. This indicates that in our records, this shift reflects a
general trend in the primary production in the southeast BC. A comparison among the Thalassionema spp. flux records, meteorological data from an observatory adjacent to the core site, and the PDO index showed that the flux
records were more similar to the PDO index than the other meteorological records, which suggests that the multidecadal-scale
variability of the BC primary productivity may be associated with some marine-derived forcing. The bottom intrusions of nutrient-rich
water that upwelled from the shelf slope into the BC, the axis movement or the transport of the Kuroshio Current off the BC,
and a basin-scale wind stress in the North Pacific might play an important role in this forcing and mediate between the BC
primary productivity and the PDO. 相似文献
Life history, habitat utilisation, and biomass of benthic and pelagic opossum shrimp (Mysis relicta) were studied in the oligotrophic Lake Jonsvatn, central Norway. Sampling in the pelagic zone was done by means of a closing zooplankton net; in the benthic zone by means of a benthic beam trawl.
M. relicta had a mixed one or two year life cycle. In the autumn, the proportion of mature females and males were larger in the pelagic than in the benthic habitat. Copulation took place in late autumn, and the first females with eggs occurred in November. In February, the first juvenile M. relicta were released in the benthic habitat. In May and July, however, juveniles were found in large numbers in all parts of the lake. The length distribution of M. relicta indicates that juveniles partly segregate between benthic and pelagic habitats.
Both juvenile and adult M. relicta performed vertical diel migrations in the pelagic habitat. In the benthic habitat, diel vertical migrations along the bottom were not as pronounced as vertical migrations in the pelagic habitat. In the benthic habitat, major migrations were performed only by adults in the autumn. Our results indicate that the light intensity in the green part of the spectrum gives the proximate cue for regulation of vertical distribution of M. relicta.
The mean total biomass varied between 288 and 1576 kg dry weight, corresponding to 23.2–127.1 mg dry weight m−2 surface area. M. relicta had smallest biomass during late spring/early summer and largest biomass during autumn and early winter. Estimated pelagic biomasses were largest in February, August, October and November, while benthic biomasses were largest in May and July. Estimated biomass of pelagic M. relicta during autumn was approximately 1/10 of the estimated biomass of zooplankton in this lake. 相似文献