Investigation of long waves in the tsunami frequency band on the southwestern shelf of Kamchatka

Two inexpensive cable bottom pressure stations were installed on the southwestern shelf of Kamchatka (Okhotsk Sea) in 1987 and two more in 1988 to provide longwave measurements in the tsunami frequency band, to investigate the generating mechanism of these waves, and to test the instrumentation. Microfluctuations of atmospheric pressure were recorded simultaneously. Two cable lines were torn off by ship anchors in March 1989 but others are still working in spite of highly dynamic activity on beaches and in hard ice regimes. Careful data analysis of two months of observations (September–October, 1987) showed that: (1) the atmospheric spectra were very stable and monotonic in the period range 2–50 min and corresponded to a power law of ^–2.3, (2) the direct generation of long waves by atmospheric pressure fluctuations was negligible, (3) there was high correlation between background longwave oscillations and sea state, (4) the structure of the offshore longwave field was in good agreement with theoretical estimates of standing waves for a linear slope.     

Stochastic differential dynamic programming for multi-reservoir system control

: As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.     

一种提取垂向海潮负荷特征信息的方法

针对基于沿海GPS站点坐标时间序列反演海潮负荷特征信息研究较少的问题,提出利用FFT与HHT提取海潮负荷信息,两种频谱方法原理各异,但都可将目标信息从原始数据中分离出。基于沿海站点的坐标时间序列,经小波去噪后进行海潮分潮特征信息提取试验,最后与3种全球海潮模型FES2004、NAO.99b和GOT4.7的模型值比较,评估两种方法的反演精度,结果显示:HHT、FFT都能够准确探测到海潮分潮信号,FFT全日潮周期反演结果优于HHT反演结果,半日潮周期反演精度相当;HHT边际谱的谱值为对应频率出现的可能程度,无法与模型值进行比较,而FFT振幅值为绝对值,其结果与模型值符合情况良好;在探测未知信号时,FFT可能会探测出虚假信号,而HHT更能真实反映信号的组成。     

鞍山区域电离层模型构建及GNSS应用研究

针对电离层延迟误差目前是GNSS导航定位精度最重要误差源的现状,通过GNSS参考站或跟踪站实测数据计算电子总含量值,建立区域电离层模型,监测区域电离层变化,进而找到削弱或消除电离层延迟误差影响方法。利用曲面拟合实现建模,在模型的建立过程中通过对不同的模型阶数进行设置,对比不同情况下的模型精度,从而确定特定区域内最佳数据采样间隔及阶数设置,并在最佳阶数设置情况下,比较了预报不同时段的精度,进而对延迟量预报问题进行探讨,得出一些有益结论。可以通过该模型单独解算流动站站点的实时电离层延迟信息,这对多基站CORS的站间距离选择和单基站CORS基准站和流动站之间距离设计,尤其对提高单频接收机以及GIS产品用户的定位精度和差分模型的覆盖范围都具有实际参考意义。     

大渡河流域水电开发对区域气候的可能影响

利用WRF中尺度天气预报模式,从拓宽大渡河整个干流的水体分布与改变单一水库(瀑布沟水电站水库)的水体覆盖两个角度,对比分析下垫面水体变化对区域气候的可能影响。结果表明:整个干流水体变化和瀑布沟水库水体加宽后所产生的气候效应类似,均表现为对水体附近区域的局地影响。年平均气温在水体附近区域下降0.2~0.4℃,冬季平均气温小幅升高,春季、夏季和秋季的平均气温降低;冬季、春季和秋季的降水量变化不明显,在河流两岸的年平均降水量、夏季降水量有所减少;相对湿度在水体区域微弱增加,平均风速变化不大。     

Detection Capability of Selected Seismic Stations in Central Europe

The 50% and 90% P-wave detection thresholds of 3 Austrian, 2 Czech, 5 German, 1 Hungarian and 3 Slovak seismic stations have been determined for four intervals of epicentral distances by a direct method using the maximum-likelihood technique. The USGS-NEIC Earthquake Data Reports covering the period from January 1990 to November 1994 were used as the reference system. The seismic stations Kaperské Hory (KHC, Czech Republic) and Collmberg (CLL, Germany) are the stations with the best detection capabilities for all investigated intervals of epicentral distances.     

长三角高校海外回流人才创新产出格局分析

以专利与重要基金项目数据为基础,运用ArcGIS软件与Eviews软件,分别对长三角高校海外回流人才创新产出空间格局及其影响因素进行分析,结果表明：长三角高校海外回流人才创新产出分布表现出较强的非均衡性,总体呈现“沪宁杭”交通沿线为创新产出高值区,而苏北和浙西南则为低值区;空间集聚特征显著,具体集中在上海市区和省会城市;创新产出受学科性质影响较大,即不同学科的海外回流人才对创新产出的贡献不同,其中工学和理学对创新产出的贡献较高,占总量的70%以上。最后,运用泊松回归模型对其影响因素进行定量测度发现,海外回流人才创新产出受到事业平台建设的影响最为显著,其次是城市等级、与上海市区的距离,再次为是否有国际机场、GDP、进出口总额占GDP比重、教育经费占GDP比重和集聚效应,是否沿海、三甲医院数量和人均GDP对海外回流人才重要基金项目与专利产出影响差异明显,而高校在校学生规模影响作用并不显著。     

轨道站点周边建成环境对残疾人出行行为的影响研究——以武汉市189个轨道站点为例

残疾人流动性是衡量社会公平发展的重要方面。由于特殊的身体和社会经济状况,残疾人出行行为具有更为独特的特征,也更易受建成环境影响。论文基于武汉市轨道交通智能刷卡数据,整合多源空间大数据,探索武汉市残疾人轨道交通出行时空特征,并利用地理加权回归(GWR)模型进一步探究轨道交通站点周边建成环境对轨道交通残疾人客流量影响的空间异质性。研究发现：① 地铁出行的残疾人中有29.7%具有通勤出行的特征,出行频率工作日高于休息日,且均呈现早晚错峰出行的趋势;② 15~30 min即大约5~10 km的中短距离出行最多,活动范围集中于三环线以内的主城区,且以同区出行活动最为频繁,跨江出行较少;③ 在大部分的研究范围内,公交站点密度、路网密度、大型公园密度和站点开通时间对站点残疾人客流量均具有正向影响;④ 换乘站的日均残疾人客流量明显高于非换乘站;⑤ 与以往研究结论不同的是,土地利用混合度、站点无障碍设施对站点残疾人客流量的影响并不显著。研究可为“残疾人友好型”的轨道交通站点建成环境优化和新站点土地利用布局提供数据支撑,增强城市公共服务人本化。     

两河口水电站引水进口边坡变形稳定性分析

两河口水电站引水进口边坡主要由砂、板岩组成的陡倾横向坡,最大开挖坡高215 m。本文根据边坡的地质结构及变形破坏特征,分析了边坡的破坏模式及稳定状况。在此基础上,采用三维有限元数值模拟的方法,模拟了工程边坡的分步开挖过程。分析表明,边坡稳定性主要受f34-1等中缓倾角结构面及Ⅴ级岩体的控制,具有沿中缓倾角结构面及Ⅴ级岩体发生滑移破坏的趋势,塑性破坏区主要分布在Ⅴ级岩体及其断层内,水平深度一般为35 m,研究成果对边坡的支护设计具有重要意义。     

苏皖地面自动站资料的质量控制及结果分析

利用江苏和安徽2012—2014年151个国家站及2 600个区域站资料,对各类自动站资料的质量及其控制方法进行初步探讨。采用缺测资料统计、气候界限值检查、气候极值检查、内部一致性检查、二次迭代的空间一致性检查、时间一致性检查、持续性检查及综合决策算法分别对国家站和区域站资料进行系统的质量控制,并根据质量控制结果进行可疑站点的标记。结果显示:国家站各要素资料缺测率远低于区域站,且资料质量总体上均明显优于区域站;自动站各要素中温、压要素的质量最好,其次是相对湿度;除了空间一致性检查中风场资料的检查结果差别不大外,其余检查中区域站资料的未通过率均远高于国家站资料;将错误资料及可疑站点信息进行及时反馈,能改善实时资料质量,并为相应测站的检修与维护提供依据。