基于集对分析理论的水电站中长期风险调度问题研究

解决水电站中长期风险调度问题,在电力市场环境下显得尤为必要。在纵观国内外水电站中长期风险调度问题研究现状的基础上,应用集对分析理论对市场环境下水电站中长期调度的风险问题进行具体分析,对径流、发电用水和电价进行同异反描述,建立了基于集对分析理论的中长期风险调度模型,并用一次二阶矩法进行求解,可以提供效益与风险的定量关系。同时,对中长期风险调度进行了基于不确定数i的敏感性分析,给出了风险因子变化时所引起的发电收入变化幅度。实例研究表明了该方法的可行性与有效性。     

基于功能的结构抗震设计研究进展

简要回顾了功能设计理论在结构工程中的发展历程,以及基于功能的设计理论提出的背景,发展情况及研究内容。阐述了将功能设计理论引入到水电工程中的必要性,指出了水电工程中应用功能设计方法应首先解决的几个问题,探讨了可能的解决方法。     

Electoral Geography of the Sino-Thai in Thailand's National Elections, 1979–1995

Comparison of Thai and Sino-Thai participation and success rates from the seven elections taking place since 1979 show Sino-Thai participation comparable to their proportion in the country's population. Assimilationist government minority policy and electorate acceptance have served to integrate this group into the mainstream political system. There is no pattern of support for a particular political party and there are no indicators of a separate Sino-Thai political element. Their highest success rates, however, occur in regions of the country that have historically had small Sino-Thai populations. This appears to be the result of factional politics and of monetary and organizational resources needed to garner votes at the provincial level.     

Managing the water of Kilimanjaro: Water,peasants, and hydropower development

The furrow irrigation systems of Kilimanjaro were first described by European explorers coming to the area by the end of the 19th century. Although being impressed, the German and later the British colonial powers soon came to see the system as wasteful and in need of improvement. Despite several attempts to control water use among the ‘natives’ in the highlands, the furrow system has remained fairly intact and still plays a key role in the local farming systems. However, the utilisation of available water resources is still a highly controversial political issue and in this paper three major challenges to traditional water use are discussed: (i) hydropower development, (ii) construction of large-scale irrigation projects, and (iii) implementation of economic and institutional reforms. All this has led to renewed and intensified conflicts over the use of water on Kilimanjaro as well as in the Pangani river. At one level, the situation can be described as a conflict over access to a scarce resource. However, beyond this perception, the controversies over water are also based on more fundamental ideological conflicts and competing ways of thinking about both development and water management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

达其河水能水电潜力分析

我国西部地区许多流域水能水电资源潜力较大，若正确开发和合理利用，对落后的西部地区发展具有现实意义。本文以西部革地达其河为例，通过对当地的水文气象、河川径流进行分析，从而对当地水能水电进行了定量计算，为当地发展提供依据。     

无锡市数字遥测地震台网建设的体会

无锡市数字遥测地震台网是按照无锡市防震减灾十年目标纲要建设的，目前已正式投入运行。我局综合各方专家意见和资料，对台网的组成，台站的布局、选择、建设取得了一些经验。总结建设的体会，供其它台网建设时参考。     

金沙江溪洛渡地区叠加褶皱及工程地质意义

金沙江溪洛渡地区古—中生代沉积地层中发育复杂的褶皱构造，它们是喜马拉雅运动期间经3期褶皱叠加而成，其叠加方式主要有跨褶、移褶、限褶、重褶等。大比例尺填图及构造解析表明，区内第3期褶皱——箐口复式背斜形成地下分水岭，构成了金沙江溪洛渡水电站库首至下游可能渗漏路径上的挡水墙，岩溶管道式渗漏不会发生。区内第3期褶皱的首次厘定及研究，对溪洛渡巨型水电站库首渗漏研究具有极为重要的意义。     

乾隆年间天山北麓东段人口迁移研究

清朝乾隆年间，清政府对新疆实行移民实地政策，人口大量迁移到新疆。天山北麓东段是新疆主要的人口迁入地区，其人口迁移分为民户迁移、商户迁移、遣户迁移、兵眷迁移和安插户迁移等几种类型，以民户迁移为主。移民的来源地以甘肃、陕西等邻近省份为主，人口迁移的方式以官府有组织的迁移为主、以民间自流的方式为辅。民户人口迁移的高峰在乾隆三十年代，乾隆四十五以后人口迁移规模变小，整个乾隆年间天山北麓东段人口迁移的规模为16．4万人左右，迁移人口主要分布在以乌鲁木齐和巴里坤为中心的两个地区。     

GPS数据处理中基准站的加权及其影响

将Bayes估计中的全部参数加权扩展为部分参数加权，从Bayes定理出发导出了参数估值公式和精度估计公式；推导了GPS数据处理中基准站加权不当对平差值的影响公式；证明了基准站加权不当时将影响参数估值的最优性，使估值精度降低，并用算例估计了基准站加权不当对框架参数影响的大小。     

辽宁省防震减灾“九五”重点项目实施概况及建设成果

“九五”期间，辽宁省地震局按照中国地震局的统一部署，应用先进的数字技术、网络技术和计算机技术，对原有的前兆与地震观测的模拟技术系统进行了改造，新建了辽宁省地震信息网络系统和防震减灾指挥中心，这是辽宁省第一次这样大规模地对防震减灾技术系统进行建设和改造。本文对“九五”重点项目的任务、技术系统构成及建设成果进行了阐述。