近45年5-9月阿勒泰地区强降水气候变化趋势与突变特征

利用1970—2019年内蒙古地区110个国家站降水量资料,采用经验正交函数(EOF）分析、重标极差分析(R/S)和非周期循环分析,统计四季和年降水量时间序列的Hurst指数(H)、分维数(D)和非周期循环的平均循环长度,分析降水量变化趋势和记忆周期。结果表明：(1)内蒙古地区年降水量变化呈增多趋势,其中在东部的偏东地区增多最显著,变化趋势具有持续性特征,持续时间为8 a,但在内蒙古西部的偏南地区和东部的局地区域年降水量呈减少趋势;(2)春季、秋季和冬季年降水量的年代变化呈增多趋势,夏季呈减少趋势,特别是冬季在东部的偏北地区的个别区域Hurst指数H=1,呈现完全预测特征,降水量未来趋势为增多趋势且通过95%的显著性检验;(3)四季降水量过去的增量与未来的增量都呈正相关,夏季降水量减少趋势的持续性最弱,冬季降水量增多趋势的持续性最强,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的记忆长度分别为8 a、8 a、9 a和10 a。

     

阿富汗地震R/S分形特征及地震活动性分析

地震的发生具有非线性特征,分形理论能够刻画地震时空分布特征及其变化过程。本文基于R/S分析方法确定阿富汗主要地震带的分形特征,利用ARIMA模型对兴都—库什山地震带可能发生的年度最大震级进行预测。R/S分析表明,兴都—库什山地震带Hurst指数为0.9125,地震活动记忆周期为8年; 苏莱曼山地震带Hurst指数为0.7281,地震活动记忆周期为9年。兴都—库什山和苏莱曼山地震带地震活动的变化趋势与历史变化一致,且兴都—库什山地震带的趋势延续性比苏莱曼山地震带更为显著。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,2022—2026年兴都—库什山地震带可能发生的年度最大震级分别为M_b6.2、M_b6.1、M_b5.8、M_b5.8和M_b6.1。     

电阻率-孔隙度、电阻率-含油（气）饱和度关系的一般形式及其最佳逼近函数类型的确定（Ⅰ）

本文导出了电阻率-孔隙度、电阻率-含油（气）饱和度关系的一般形式——两个对称的表达式,并给予了实验证明。同时,本文指出,Archie公式、Winsauer公式和双水公式都是一般形式在一定条件下的特例。在一般情况下,本文给出了14个能够逼近这两个表达式的函数类型,通过岩芯数据进行选优,可以得到适合不同地区或地层的最优方程。根据本文理论建立的解释方法和研制的软件已经在油田生产中推广应用并取得了良好效果。 由于涉及内容较多,全文分两部分撰写。以下是本文的第（Ⅰ）部分,即一般形式的导出及实验验证;而最佳函数类型的确定及其在生产中的应用将作为本文的第（Ⅱ）部分发表。     

Environmental regulation and innovation: Evidence from China

The relevance of analyzing effects of environmental regulation on innovation cannot be overemphasized. In this paper, we first develop a theoretical model to predict how command-and-control environmental regulation affects innovation, and then we derive its channels. Using the difference-in-difference-in-differences strategy and a comprehensive dataset at city-industry-year level of manufacturing sectors in China, we found that the more stringent environmental regulations that are faced by cities, measured by the reduction targets of chemical oxygen demand (COD) and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) during the eleventh Five-Year Plan, are negatively associated with innovation. Thus, the evidence contradicts the Porter Hypothesis. On average, a one standard deviation increase in the reduction targets of COD (SO₂) is associated with a 0.023 (0.016) standard deviation decrease in the innovation index. We controlled carefully for various potential confounders, and the results were supported by robustness and falsification checks. There exists an evident heterogeneity effect across regions and industries with different pollution intensities. The channel analysis shows that stricter environmental regulation also accounts for a sharp decline in labor demand, firm entry, and inbound foreign direct investment. Our findings are also robust to alternative measures for innovation and environmental regulation.     

First‐order exchange coefficient coupling for simulating surface water–groundwater interactions: parameter sensitivity and consistency with a physics‐based approach

Distributed hydrologic models capable of simulating fully‐coupled surface water and groundwater flow are increasingly used to examine problems in the hydrologic sciences. Several techniques are currently available to couple the surface and subsurface; the two most frequently employed approaches are first‐order exchange coefficients (a.k.a., the surface conductance method) and enforced continuity of pressure and flux at the surface‐subsurface boundary condition. The effort reported here examines the parameter sensitivity of simulated hydrologic response for the first‐order exchange coefficients at a well‐characterized field site using the fully coupled Integrated Hydrology Model (InHM). This investigation demonstrates that the first‐order exchange coefficients can be selected such that the simulated hydrologic response is insensitive to the parameter choice, while simulation time is considerably reduced. Alternatively, the ability to choose a first‐order exchange coefficient that intentionally decouples the surface and subsurface facilitates concept‐development simulations to examine real‐world situations where the surface‐subsurface exchange is impaired. While the parameters comprising the first‐order exchange coefficient cannot be directly estimated or measured, the insensitivity of the simulated flow system to these parameters (when chosen appropriately) combined with the ability to mimic actual physical processes suggests that the first‐order exchange coefficient approach can be consistent with a physics‐based framework. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the Vibrational Frequencies of the Holweide Hospital in the City of Cologne (Germany) by Means of Ambient Seismic Noise Analysis and FE modelling

Ambient seismic noise measurements were conducted inside the Holweide Hospital (Cologne) for checking whether its frequencies of vibration fall into the range where soil amplification is expected. If this is the case, damage might increase in case of an earthquake due to an amplified structural response of the building. Two different techniques were used: the ratio between the horizontal and vertical components of the spectra recorded at stations located inside the building and the ratio between the corresponding components of the spectra recorded simultaneously inside the building and at a reference station placed outside. While the former method might be preferred because of less equipment involved, the latter has the advantage of producing more stable results and deleting automatically the influence of the sedimentary cover, which might obscure some eigenfrequencies of vibration of the building. An independently performed finite-element analysis of the hospital showed a good correlation between measured and calculated eigenmodes.     

Identifying and assessing the residency effect in Pocatello,Idaho, using combined census and parcel data

Human residency is the spatial effect source on ecosystem and thus it should be studied and assessed. Supporting residency effect research, this study developed and applied procedures and a model to combine census and parcel data for the assessment. The case study is in Pocatello, Idaho, where revealing land service associated with flood control and locating/evaluating resident effect are needed. Methods include (1) data mining, (2) land service valuation, (3) data screening, (4) integration of census and parcel data, (5) data screening, and (5) analysis and modeling with R programing language and ArcMap. Results are, for land service assessment, land value per area unit in residence areas (LAND) along the concrete channel (for flood control) was less than that along the Portneuf River. Spatial responses under LAND to a source effect (either the concrete channel or the river) are the same. The applied methods helped locate and assess a variety of residency effects spatio-temporally. Results informed the human preferences under LAND and the effect distribution to support decision-making. Technically, using the parcels as a baseline provided comprehensive results with a fine resolution for the effect study, particularly as combined with the census data. This study suggests using a data screening and validation procedure besides the mining approach to minimize outcome uncertainty.     

中国南阳伏牛山世界地质公园地质灾害评价

中国南阳伏牛山世界地质公园位于豫西南山区。地貌类型以中、低山为主,地表多出露变质岩及侵入岩,岩体风化强烈,多赋存基岩裂隙水,地质构造发育,人类工程活动强烈,园区地质环境条件复杂。通过野外调查及评价,园区处于地质灾害高易发区,主要地质灾害有崩塌、滑坡和泥石流。针对地质公园这一特色旅游,提出地质灾害防治对策,保障当地旅游经济可持续发展。