Wavelet-Aggregated Signal in Earthquake Prediction

The concept of aggregated signal is introduced. Quantitatively, an aggregated signal can be defined as the scalar signal: it accumulates in its own variations only those spectral components that are presented simultaneously in each scalar time series of the multidimensional signal to be analyzed. Moreover, an algorithm of aggregation is proposed to suppress the spectral components that are present in any of the scalar components but absent in others (these components can be called local disturbance signals, for instance of technogenic nature). The main purpose of constructing the aggregated signal is to make clearer the common tendency of low-frequency data-flow in geophysical networks, which indicates an increase in collective behavior.It is known that almost all models of the process of earthquake preparation have pointed out an increase in collective behavior of components of geophysical fields in the region of preparation when the coming geocatastrophe has entered its long- and mid-term stages. Long     

2008年汶川MS8.0地震前定点形变高频异常特征的研究

本文以中国大陆西部定点形变观测资料作为研究对象, 采用S变换和超限率时频分析法对其进行了处理和分析。 研究结果表明: 在2008年汶川M_S8.0地震前, 距离震中600 km范围内的定点形变个别台站观测到高频异常, 异常持续时间较长; 距离震中300 km范围的个别台站临震高频异常非常显著; 并且不同的定点形变观测手段对高频信号的响应不同, 地倾斜测项临震前高频异常形态较地应变测项更为清晰灵敏。 同时S变换和超限率两种方法处理结果具有较好的一致性, 表明本文提取到的高频异常可信度较高。     

Using wavelet approximation to study the influence of Jupiter on the orbital evolution of a distant satellite of Saturn

We suggest a nonstandard methodology for studying the influence of Jupiter on the secular orbital evolution of a distant satellite of Saturn. This influence is tangible only in short time spans near the times of the smallest separation between Jupiter and Saturn, i.e., when the heliocentric longitudes of the two planets coincide. These times are spaced about 20 years apart. To describe the jumplike behavior of perturbations, we suggest approximating the principal part of the perturbing function averaged over the satellite’s motion by a two-parameter exponential wavelet-type (burst) function. The subsequent averaging (smoothing) of the perturbing function allows us to eliminate the 20-year-period terms and obtain an approximate analytical solution in a special case of the problem. The results are illustrated by plots of the variations in the averaged perturbing function and the orbital eccentricity of Saturn’s outer satellite S/2000 S1, which is most strongly perturbed by Jupiter.     

Analytical solutions to the four post-Newtonian effects in a near-Earth satellite orbit

On the basis of the results by Huang et al. (1990), this paper further discusses and analyses the four post-Newtonian effects in a near-Earth satellite orbit: the Schwarzschild solution, the post-Newtonian effects of the geodesic precession, the Lense-Thirring precession and the oblateness of the Earth. A full analytical solution to the effects including their direct perturbations and mixed perturbations due to the Newtonian oblateness (J ₂) perturbation and the Schwarzschild solution is obtained using the quasi-mean orbital element method analogous to the Kozai's mean orbital element one. Some perturbation properties of the post-Newtonian effects are revealed. The results obtained not only can provide a sound scientific basis for the precise determination of a man-made satellite orbit but also is suitable for similar mechanics systems, such as the motions of planets, asteroids and natural satellites.     

Origin of scattered disk resonant TNOs: Evidence for an ancient excited Kuiper belt of 50 AU radius

Resonance occupation of trans-neptunian objects (TNOs) in the scattered disk (>48 AU) was investigated by integrating the orbits of 85 observed members for 4 Gyr. Twenty seven TNOs were locked in the 9:4, 16:7, 7:3, 12:5, 5:2, 8:3, 3:1, 4:1, 11:2, and 27:4 resonances. We then explored mechanisms for the origin of the resonant structure in the scattered disk, in particular the long-term 9:4, 5:2, and 8:3 resonant TNOs (median 4 Gyr), by performing large scale simulations involving Neptune scattering and planetary migration over an initially excited planetesimals disk (wide range of eccentricities and inclinations). To explain the formation of Gyr-resident populations in such distant resonances, our results suggest the existence of a primordial planetesimal disk of at least 45-50 AU radius that suffered a dynamical perturbation leading to 0.1-0.3 or greater eccentricities and a range of inclinations up to ∼20° during early stages of the Solar System history, before planetary migration.     

Orbital evolution of Jupiter’s new outer satellites

Data on recently discovered outer satellites of Jupiter are used to analyze their long-period orbital evolution. We determine the extreme eccentricities and inclinations, as well as the circulation periods of the pericenter arguments and of the longitudes of the ascending nodes. The satellite orbital elements are plotted against time. The methods of analysis are identical to those that we used to analyze the orbital evolution of Uranus’s and Saturn’s new outer satellites.     

Quaternary biogenic opal records in the South China Sea: Linkages to East Asian monsoon, global ice volume and orbital forcing

Particulate fluxes investigated in the central South China Sea (SCS) during 1993―1996 indicate that opal flux can be used to show primary productivity change, which provides a foundation for tracing the evolutionary relationship between the surface productivity and East Asian monsoon in the SCS during the late Quaternary glacial and interglacial periods. Based on the studies of opal % and their mass accumulation rates (MAR) at the six sites recovered from the SCS during the “Resolution” ODP Leg 184 and “Sonne” 95 cruise of the Sino-Germany cooperation, opal % and their MARs increased evidently in the northern sites since 470―900 ka, and they enhanced and reduced, respectively, during the glacial and interglacial periods. Whereas they increased obviously in the southern sites since 420―450 ka, and they augmented and declined, respectively, during the interglacial and glacial periods. The vari- ability in opal % and their MARs in the late Quaternary glacial cyclicity indicate the “seesaw” pattern of surface productivity in the SCS. The winter monsoon intensified during the glacial periods, surface productivity increased and decreased, respectively, in the northern and southern SCS. The summer monsoon strengthened during the interglacial periods, surface productivity increased and decreased, respectively, in the southern and northern SCS. The cross spectral analyses between the opal % in the northern and southern SCS during the Quaternary and global ice volume (δ 18O) and orbital forcing (ETP) indicate that the East Asian winter and summer monsoons could be ascribed to the different drive mechanisms. On the orbital time scale, the global ice volume change could be a dominant factor for the winter monsoon intension and temporal variations. As compared with the winter monsoon, the correlative summer solar radiation with the obliquity and precession in the Northern Hemisphere could be a mostly controlling factor for the summer monsoon intension and temporal variations.     

Seismo-acoustic signals associated with degassing explosions recorded at Shishaldin Volcano,Alaska, 2003–2004

In summer 2003, a Chaparral Model 2 microphone was deployed at Shishaldin Volcano, Aleutian Islands, Alaska. The pressure sensor was co-located with a short-period seismometer on the volcano’s north flank at a distance of 6.62 km from the active summit vent. The seismo-acoustic data exhibit a correlation between impulsive acoustic signals (1–2 Pa) and long-period (LP, 1–2 Hz) earthquakes. Since it last erupted in 1999, Shishaldin has been characterized by sustained seismicity consisting of many hundreds to two thousand LP events per day. The activity is accompanied by up to ∼200 m high discrete gas puffs exiting the small summit vent, but no significant eruptive activity has been confirmed. The acoustic waveforms possess similarity throughout the data set (July 2003–November 2004) indicating a repetitive source mechanism. The simplicity of the acoustic waveforms, the impulsive onsets with relatively short (∼10–20 s) gradually decaying codas and the waveform similarities suggest that the acoustic pulses are generated at the fluid–air interface within an open-vent system. SO₂ measurements have revealed a low SO₂ flux, suggesting a hydrothermal system with magmatic gases leaking through. This hypothesis is supported by the steady-state nature of Shishaldin’s volcanic system since 1999. Time delays between the seismic LP and infrasound onsets were acquired from a representative day of seismo-acoustic data. A simple model was used to estimate source depths. The short seismo-acoustic delay times have revealed that the seismic and acoustic sources are co-located at a depth of 240±200 m below the crater rim. This shallow depth is confirmed by resonance of the upper portion of the open conduit, which produces standing waves with f=0.3 Hz in the acoustic waveform codas. The infrasound data has allowed us to relate Shishaldin’s LP earthquakes to degassing explosions, created by gas volume ruptures from a fluid–air interface.     

关于月球低轨卫星运动的两个问题

对月球低轨卫星的轨道寿命特征和冻结轨道晶状态作了详尽的理论分析,给出它们与轨道倾角之间的关系以及它们相互之间的某种联系,并考虑低轨卫星的主要摄动源,在完整力模型下作了相应的模拟计算,不仅证实了理论分析的正确性,而且为环月运行探测器的轨道设计提供了极有参考价值的数值结果．     

Electronic and magnetic structure of vivianite: cluster molecular orbital calculations

The electronic and magnetic structure of the octahydrophosphate vivianite, Fe₃(PO₄)₂·8H₂O, has been investigated by cluster molecular orbital calculations in local spin density approximation. Optical and Mössbauer spectra are well reproduced by the calculations, and the differences between the two iron sites can be correlated with differences in the geometrical structure of the first coordination sphere. The spin structure within the crystallographic ac plane is derived and explained on the basis of different superexchange pathways via edges of the phosphate tetrahedra. The calculations demonstrate that quite large clusters (up to 118 atoms) are necessary to arrive at reliable results.