Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.     

VARIATION OF THE TRAVEL TIME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TELESEISMIC PS CONVERTED WAVE AND PP TRANSMITTED WAVE IN FOCAL REGION BEFORE AND AFTER WENCHUAN MS8.0 EARTHQUAKE

When P waves from distant earthquakes meet a velocity discontinuity in the earth's crust and upper mantle, they give rise to a series of converted PS waves besides PP refracted waves. It is possible to monitor the variation of the physical properties of the medium in the limited formation space above the transition zone of the seismogenic zone by measuring the time difference between the teleseismic PS converted wave and the first arrival P wave, that is, time-variation Δt_PS=t_PS-t_P. The advantage of this method is that the transition point of the teleseismic source with similar source is relatively stable at the transition interface, and the accuracy of the measured relative time is high, and the change of the medium in a small range of the seismogenic zone above the conversion interface can be monitored. This paper studies the variation of the travel time difference Δt_PS in focal region before and after Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake. We select 2001 to 2012 as the research period, use teleseismic waveforms which occurred in the southern region of Sumatra and Hindu Kush area recorded by Sichuan station YZP and JJS. These teleseisms satisfy 5.0 ≤ M ≤ 6.5, and their waveform signal-to-noise ratio is high with clear initial P-wave motion. The epicentral distance of teleseisms is less than 3 degrees. Then we obtain the variation of the travel time difference Δt_PS between teleseismic PS converted wave and PP transmitted wave recorded during the study period in the two stations. The results show that there is a slow increasing trend of Δt_PS before 2006, and an obvious low value process of Δt_PS appeared in the period about 2 years before the Wenchuan earthquake. The maximum decline was about 0.2~0.3s, more than 4~5 times the measurement error. The low value has a certain degree of return about 2~3 months before the earthquake. The change of arrival time difference indicates that the medium is in different states in different periods of seismogenic process. The sharp decrease in Δt_PS from 2006 to January 2008 may be due to the strong disturbance caused by the stress accumulation of the medium. At this stage, the velocity of P wave and S wave increases with the increase of stress, and the increase of S wave velocity will result in the decrease of Δt_PS. The change of Δt_PS is greatly affected by S wave velocity, so Δt_PS appears to decrease rapidly. Regarding the low value that has a certain degree of return about 2~3 months before the Wenchuan earthquake, the possible reason is that the release of stress is much higher than the accumulation of stress in meta-instability stage. At this stage, the velocity of S wave decreases and the decrease of S wave causes Δt_PS to increase. Then, the Wenchuan earthquake of magnitude 8.0 occurred. It is shown that the teleseismic converted wave method in this paper can monitor the variation of medium's wave velocity before large earthquakes, and it has a good prospect in seismic monitoring and worth further experimental study.     

广州市社区出行低碳指数格局及其影响因素的空间异质性

通过构建社区出行低碳指数（CTLCI）模型,对广州市社区出行低碳指数的空间格局及其差异特征进行了分析,并利用全局回归（OLS）模型和地理加权回归（GWR）模型对社区出行低碳指数的影响因素以及其间关系的空间异质性进行了研究。结果表明,广州市社区出行低碳指数由中心城区向外逐渐递增,呈明显的圈层结构。内圈层的社区出行低碳指数内部差异最小,中间过渡圈层的最大。社区人口密度对社区出行低碳指数的影响以正向作用为主,公共交通供给水平和路网密集程度对社区出行低碳指数的影响以负向作用为主,且它们的影响作用具有空间异质性。具体指出了在不同地域空间内社区人口密度、公共交通供给水平和路网密集程度对社区出行低碳指数在影响程度和作用方向上的差异,为减少广州城市交通碳排放、针对不同空间制定有效的低碳政策和构建低碳城市空间结构提供了科学依据。     

南京市城市老年人出行行为的影响因素

老年人在人口比例和绝对数量上的快速增长将对整个社会产生一系列影响,其中交通出行是非常重要的一个方面。本文基于2012年南京居民出行调查数据,发现相对于年轻人,老年人的日出行次数增加,但日出行时间和日出行距离都减少,说明老年人单次出行距离较短,且主要围绕“家”形成圆形的活动空间;从出行方式构成来看,老年人以步行和公交车为主,出行目的以娱乐、休闲和购物为主。运用次序Logit及线性回归模型,在确定老年人及其家庭的基本社会经济属性之后,发现城市建成环境对老年人的出行有显著影响。其中,城市人口密度会显著增加老年人的日出行次数,但其日出行距离反而有所减少;居住在原单位小区的老人日出行次数比居住于商品房的老人多,且出行距离也较短;说明混合用地以及紧凑的发展模式有利于促进老年人的出行。距离交通基础设施越近,老年人的出行越活跃。大型购物中心对老年人的购物出行没有显著影响,老年人更倾向于在街头小店购买物品。而小区周边体育馆、博物馆等设施对老年人的吸引力则不如棋牌室和公园广场。研究结果对老年人健康生活和科学合理布局城市设施具有一定的指导意义。     

Implementation of online model updating in hybrid simulation

Hybrid simulation combines numerical and experimental methods for cost‐effective, large‐scale testing of structures under simulated earthquake loading. Structural system level response can be obtained by expressing the equation of motion for the combined experimental and numerical substructures, and solved using time‐stepping integration similar to pure numerical simulations. It is often assumed that a reliable model exists for the numerical substructures while the experimental substructures correspond to parts of the structure that are difficult to model. A wealth of data becomes available during the simulation from the measured experiment response that can be used to improve upon the numerical models, particularly if a component with similar structural configuration and material properties is being tested and subjected to a comparable load pattern. To take advantage of experimental measurements, a new hybrid test framework is proposed with an updating scheme to update the initial modeling parameters of the numerical model based on the instantaneously‐measured response of the experimental substructures as the test progresses. Numerical simulations are first conducted to evaluate key algorithms for the selection and calibration of modeling parameters that can be updated. The framework is then expanded to conduct actual hybrid simulations of a structural frame model including a physical substructure in the laboratory and a numerical substructure that is updated during the tests. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated for a simple frame structure but is extendable to more complex structural behavior and models. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1D System identification of a 54‐story steel frame building by seismic interferometry

A 54‐story steel, perimeter‐frame building in downtown Los Angeles, California, is identified by a wave method using records of the Northridge earthquake of 1994 (M_L = 6.4, R = 32 km). The building is represented as a layered shear beam and a torsional shaft, characterized by the corresponding velocities of vertically propagating waves through the structure. The previously introduced waveform inversion algorithm is applied, which fits in the least squares sense pulses in low‐pass filtered impulse response functions computed at different stories. This paper demonstrates that layered shear beam and torsional shaft models are valid for this building, within bands that include the first five modes of vibration for each of the North–South (NS), East–West (EW), and torsional responses (0–1.7 Hz for NS and EW, and 0–3.5 Hz for the torsional response). The observed pulse travel time from ground floor to penthouse level is τ ≈1.5 s for NS and EW and τ ≈ 0.9 s for the torsional responses. The identified equivalent uniform shear beam wave velocities are β_eq ≈ 140 m/s for NS and EW responses, and 260 m/s for torsion, and the apparent Q ≈ 25 for the NS and torsional, and ≈14 for the EW response. Across the layers, the wave velocity varied 90–170 m/s for the NS, 80–180 m/s for the EW, and 170–350 m/s for the torsional responses. The identification method is intended for use in structural health monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于三层C/S模式的测量在线数据处理服务

讨论了测量数据处理软件的在线实现问题;并基于三层C/S模式,探讨了从客户端、中间层到后端数据处理模块的实现方法;最后以三角网平差作为实例,详细说明了用.Java语言实现一个网上测量在线数据处理服务系统的全过程.     

地震分析软件震相走时表文件结构研究

通过对现有地震分析软件所配置的震相走时表文件的结构类型及优劣进行分析,将震相走时表分为4种组合结构并分析其实用性。在IASPEI91震相走时表文件结构的基础上进行修改、补充和完善,从而提出了一种安全性高、适用面广、灵活性强、能存储各种结构走时表的新型走时表文件结构。应用这种新型结构震相走时表,地震分析软件可以灵活配置不同的走时表,实现精细定位,并为数字化测震台网快速利用测震资料编制和应用高精度的区域震相走时表创造了条件,对于地球深部构造研究具有一定的促进意义。     

安徽省公路网络可达性空间格局及其演化

以1996、2004、2010 年为时间断面, 加权平均旅行时间为指标, 探讨安徽省公路网络中节点城镇可达性空间格局及其演化规律。结果表明:1996-2010 年, 安徽省公路网络可达性总体空间格局变动不大, 其值大体以合肥地区为中心向外围呈不规则环状递增, 且空间分布具有一定的交通干道指向性。公路网络完善极大地提高了区域内节点城镇可达性, 其中第一阶段(1996-2004 年)可达性值提升较第二阶段(2004-2010 年)更为显著;可达性变化幅度与初值有关, 第一阶段可达性值变化率空间格局由“徐合高速-合芜宣高速”沿线地区和沿江地区组成的“T型”区域向周围递减, 第二阶段呈现出沿新建高速公路地区向四周递减的多极空间格局;不同地区可达性受益迥异, 江南地区可达性受益最为显著, 其次是淮北、江淮地区;随着路网的不断完善, 可达性水平由中心向外围呈圈层式优化, 可达性等值线趋于均匀、平滑, 中心城市可达性差异逐渐缩小, 可达性分布趋于均衡。