郑汴都市区一次能源消费的碳排放变化及机理

城市发展面临着向低碳生态转型的挑战,探析城市一次能源消费的碳排放变化及机理是郑汴都市区低碳生态化研究的基点。采用LMDI分析法对2000~2009年间郑汴都市区化石能源碳排放变化、2004~2007年间一次能源碳排放与主要农作物碳吸收变化机理进行研究,构建低碳发展判别函数进一步辨析郑汴都市区产业低碳发展的类型与方向。结果发现：郑汴都市区的碳排放量逐年增加,但两市的增长速度与方式有所不同;碳排放量是在经济发展水平与人口规模、能源强度与能源结构、种植结构、播种面积及产出强度等7个因子相互作用下变化的,经济发展水平的提高是促进碳排放增加的显著因素,能源强度、播种面积和产出强度的增加是抑制碳排放的显著因素;郑汴都市区的产业错位发展有利于消减碳排放总量,但多种产业的产能和结构亟待提高与调整。郑汴城市复合生态系统之间的低碳耦合发展路径、各子系统之间的相互作用机理是应继续深入的方向。     

中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力变化特征——基于过程模型和遥感模型的评估结果

净初级生产力（NPP）作为生态系统物质与能量循环的基础,是区域和全球尺度碳循环和碳收支研究的重要组成部分。研究区域和全球尺度的净初级生产力主要依靠模型手段实现,过程和遥感模型是目前广泛使用的两种模型形式。本文搜集并整理了基于过程模型和遥感模型对我国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的模拟结果,分析了中国陆地生态系统净初级生产力的时间变化及对未来气候变化的响应特征,旨在对其进行综合评价。结果表明,中国陆地生态系统NPP平均为（2.828±0.827）PgC.a-1。1982-1998年的年际变化特征上,NPP平均每年增加0.027 PgC,年增长率为1.07%,总体上呈现在波动中逐年上升的趋势。不同植被类型的单位面积NPP总体表现为常绿阔叶林显著高于其他植被类型,但不同研究结果间变化范围很大;落叶针叶林、常绿针叶林和落叶阔叶林相差较小;农作物低于阔叶林,但高于针叶林;草地和荒漠均位于低值区,但前者显著高于后者。不同植被类型的NPP总量总体表现为农作物和草地位居前两位,两者之和高达各植被类型NPP总量之和的58.34%;除灌丛和常绿针叶林外,其余植被类型均不足总量的10%。在未来气候情景下,中国陆地生态系统NPP总体上可能表现为先增加后减小的趋势。     

基于DEA和Malmquist指数模型的中国资源型城市效率及其变化(英文)

Employing DEA model and Malmquist productivity index, this paper probes into the urban efficiencies of 24 typical resources-based cities in China and their changes from 2000 to 2008. The research finds that the overall efficiencies of the resources-based cities are just at a general level, and only a few of them reach the optimal level. The scale efficiency is the major determining factor of the achievement of overall efficiency, the effect of which, never-theless, is reducing. From the perspective of classification characteristics, the re-sources-based cities in northeastern region have been in the front rank in terms of overall efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency. There is a certain positive correlation between urban population scale and urban efficiency. The analysis of urban efficiency changes shows that the changes in overall efficiency of resources-based cities from 2000 to 2008 had a weak improving tendency. Both the technical change index and productivity change index decreased, indicating that the urban efficiency did not improve during this pe-riod, and the tendency of technical recession and productivity decline was obvious. In terms of the classification of urban efficiency changes, the urban overall efficiency improved in each of the four regions from 2000 to 2008, among which western region witnessed the greatest increase. Cities with different resource types have improved their urban overall efficiencies except steel-based cities. The urban overall efficiency increased in resources-based cities of different scales, with greater improvement in small and medium-sized cities than in big cities.     

近46a黑龙江水稻障碍型冷害及其与气候生产力的关系

利用黑龙江省稻作区46 a（1961—2006年）每年7—8月逐日平均气温、5—9月逐旬平均气温、降水量资料,采用气候统计方法分析了自然低温下障碍型冷害发生的规律和时空变化特征,基于logistic曲线方程模拟粳稻气候生产力,建立起5个区域粳稻气候生产力与障碍型冷害期间平均温度和冷害持续时间的关系模型。结果表明,近46 a间,20世纪70年代是障碍型冷害高发期,20世纪80年代是障碍型冷害发生频率由多至少的转折期,21世纪初为低发期。黑龙江省北部稻作区、东部稻作区和中部稻作区为障碍型冷害重发区,南部稻作区为中等发生区,西部稻作区为轻发区。5个区域障碍型冷害发生期间的平均温度与粳稻气候生产力相关性均不显著,而冷害持续时间对粳稻气候生产力影响显著,并具有明显的地域差异,北部、东部和南部极显著（通过0.01信度的显著性检验）,冷害持续时间每延长1 d,北部、东部和南部粳稻气候生产力分别下降119.89 kg/hm^2、213.60 kg/hm^2、133.84 kg/hm^2,西部和中部影响不显著。     

Estimates of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> uptake in a global ocean model

A global ocean general circulation model (L30T63) is employed to study the uptake and distribution of anthropogenic CO₂ in the ocean. A subgrid-scale mixing scheme called GM90 is used in the model. There are two main GM90 parameters including isopycnal diffusivity and skew (thickness) diffusivity. Sensitivities of the ocean circulation and the redistribution of dissolved anthropogenic CO₂ to these two parameters are examined. Two runs estimate the global oceanic anthropogenic CO₂ uptake to be 1.64 and 1.73 Pg C yr^-1 for the 1990s, and that the global ocean contained 86.8 and 92.7 Pg C of anthropogenic CO₂ at the end of 1994, respectively. Both the total inventory and uptake from our model are smaller than the data-based estimates. In this presentation, the vertical distributions of anthropogenic CO₂ at three meridional sections are discussed and compared with the available data-based estimates. The inventory in the individual basins is also calculated. Use of large isopycnal diffusivity can generally improve the simulated results, including the exchange flux, the vertical distribution patterns, inventory, storage, etc. In terms of comparison of the vertical distributions and column inventory, we find that the total inventory in the Pacific Ocean obtained from our model is in good agreement with the data-based estimate, but a large difference exists in the Atlantic Ocean, particularly in the South Atlantic. The main reasons are weak vertical mixing and that our model generates small exchange fluxes of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Southern Ocean. Improvement in the simulation of the vertical transport and sea ice in the Southern Ocean is important in future work.     

成矿概率面金属量法在东天山铜镍矿预测中的应用

地球化学方法被普遍应用于矿产资源定量预测,但多数方法都只是基于地球化学数据本身而进行的,较少考虑除成矿物质来源之外的诸如构造、地层等地质环境的影响,结果使估算的资源量不能够很好符合客观实际。在充分研究地质因素的基础上,认为物质基础和富集强度是矿床形成的重要条件,并据此对传统面金属量法进行了修正,建立了成矿概率面金属量法。该法可在一定程度上屏蔽虚假资源量。笔者采用成矿概率面金属量法对东天山地区铜镍矿的铜资源量进行了定量评价,效果较好。预测结果表明,东天山地区该类型铜矿资源潜力较大。     

西秦岭寨上金矿地球化学特征及其找矿意义

通过对寨上金矿区30余个钻孔10种元素化探数据利用GEOEXPL软件进行处理统计,在SURFER及MAPGIS软件平台作图,并对寨上金矿床地质、地球化学异常及其元素轴向分带规律的综合研究,建立了该矿床的地质-地球化学找矿标志及其找矿模型,以期为矿床外围及深部找矿评价提供地球化学依据。     

构造原生晕法在地质找矿上的应用

在桦甸市三道沟金矿床300m中段两个受构造控制的、原岩为花岗闪长岩的蚀变带上取原生晕,经过与未蚀变的花岗闪长岩、金矿石及辉绿岩之间微量元素的对比分析,判断出该蚀变带为矿化蚀变带,进而在其延长方向上找到了矿体;在白山市石人金矿床控矿构造北东延长方向上,沿断裂构造走向采取原生晕,在Au、Hg元素较高的样品地段,揭露到了矿体。在尚没有完全掌握矿床原生晕分带性的勘查初期阶段,利用构造原生晕找矿是一种简捷经济的方法,但需要结合其它控矿条件,综合考虑其成晕原因,以达到最佳找矿效果。     

Identification and definition of primary and reworked tephra in Late Glacial and Holocene marine shelf sediments off North Iceland

Nine tephra layers in marine sediment cores (MD99‐2271 and MD99‐2275) from the North Icelandic shelf, spanning the Late Glacial and the Holocene, have been investigated to evaluate the effectiveness of methods to detect tephra layers in marine environments, to pinpoint the stratigraphic level of the time signal the tephra layers provide, and to discriminate between primary and reworked tephra layers in a marine environment. These nine tephra layers are the Borrobol‐like tephra, Vedde Ash, Askja S tephra, Saksunarvatn ash, and Hekla 5, Hekla 4, Hekla 3, Hekla 1104 and V1477 tephras. The methods used were visual inspection, magnetic susceptibility, X‐ray photography, mineralogical counts, grain size and morphological measurements, and microprobe analysis. The results demonstrate that grain size measurements and mineralogical counts are the most effective methods to detect tephra layers in this environment, revealing all nine tephra layers in question. Definition of the tephra layers revealed a 2–3 cm diffuse upper boundary in eight of the nine tephra layers and 2–3 cm diffuse lower boundary in two tephra layers. Using a multi‐parameter approach the stratigraphic position of a tephra layer was determined where the rate of change of the parameters tested was the greatest compared with background values below the tephra. The first attempt to use grain morphology to distinguish between primary and reworked tephra in a marine environment suggests that this method can be effective in verifying whether a tephra layer is primary or reworked. Morphological measurements and microprobe analyses in combination with other methods can be used to identify primary tephra layers securely. The study shows that there is a need to apply a combination of methods to detect, define (the time signal) and discriminate between primary and reworked tephra in marine environments. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Did the Indo‐Asian summer monsoon decrease during the Holocene following insolation?

A few studies from the western Arabian Sea indicate that the Indian summer (or southwest) monsoon (ISM), after attaining its maximum intensity at ca. 9 ka, declined during the Holocene, as did insolation. In contrast, earlier and later observations from both the eastern and the western Arabian Sea do not support this inference. Analysis of multiple proxies of productivity in a new sediment core from the western Arabian Sea fails to confirm the earlier, single‐proxy (e.g. abundance of Globigerina bulloides) based, inference of the Holocene weakening of ISM, following insolation. The reason for the observed decreasing trend in foraminiferal abundance – the basis for the earlier inference – could be the favouring of silicate rather than carbonate productivity by the increased ISM wind strength. Although ISM exhibits several multi‐millennial scale fluctuations, there is no evidence from several multi‐proxy data to conclude that it declined during the Holocene; this is consistent with the phase lag analysis of longer time series of monsoon proxies. Thus, on sub‐Milankovitch timescales, ISM did not follow insolation, highlighting the importance of internal feedbacks. A comparison with East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) records suggests that both ISM and EASM varied in unison, implying common forcing factors on such longer timescales. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.