Quantitative assessment on the influence of heavy rainfall on the crystalline schist landslide by monitoring system -case study on Zentoku landslide, Japan

On Shikoku Island, which is one of the four main islands of Japan, a large number of large-scale crystalline schist landslides have been revealed and are being monitored by an observation system. Seasonal heavy rainfall is the most active meteorological factor that can threaten the stability of this kind of site-specific landslide. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the rainfall-related behavior of a typical crystalline schist landslide, the Zentoku landslide, by analyzing the precisely and continuously observed piezometric and movement data, a method was developed to quantitatively assess the effect of heavy rainfall on a large-scale landslide. The results indicated that heavy rainfall-induced landslide displacement shows good correlation with the variation of groundwater levels. Variations of groundwater level have been simulated with the use of a tank model. The simulation using this model permits the change in water levels for future rainfall events to be predicted. By combining the predicted results with the empirical relation between displacements and water levels, rainfall-induced landslide movement during extreme rainfall events can be estimated in advance. The effect of heavy rainfall on sliding behavior can be quantified in terms of the change in displacement. Thus warning information or advisories for the local residents can be provided.     

TOURISM DEVELOPMENT ON VANCOUVER ISLAND: AN ASSESSMENT OF THE CORE-PERIPHERY MODEL *

This paper examines tourism development on Vancouver Island, B.C. in terms of the core-periphery approach to regional planning. It examines whether a core area (Victoria) is willing to share its tourism business with the rest of the island, and then focuses on the situation in a peripheral region (the Cowichan Valley Regional District–CVRD). A discriminant analysis of CVRD residents reveals they have different views regarding tourism's potential and future in their region. A follow-up analysis, reflecting a change in the scale of enquiry and local core-periphery conditions, shows residents'perceptions and priorities will change according to their respective area groupings. This analysis reveals that residents of a peripheral region, who are expected to participate in and welcome tourism development initiatives developed by senior levels of government, will in fact have different opinions regarding the industry and its potential. These differences are linked to present levels of tourism activity within the periphery and the varying community aspirations linking tourism's development potential with local needs and priorities.     

Effect of flying altitude and pulse repetition frequency on laser scanner penetration rate for digital elevation model generation in a tropical forest

In tropical forests, the penetration ability of airborne laser scanning (ALS) may be limited because of highly dense vegetation cover. However, in the typical planning of ALS surveys, the ability of laser pulses to penetrate forests is not considered. Nine round-trip flight lines covering the area of a tropical forest on the northeast side of the Tsengwen Reservoir in Taiwan were designed in this study. Five flight lines flew at altitudes of 1.525, 1.830, 2.135, 2.440, and 2.745 km, and the other four had pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs) of 100, 150, 200, and 250 kHz. The laser penetration index (LPI) is a quantitative index measuring the penetration ability of the ALS and consists of the ratio of the number of laser pulses reaching the forest floor to the total number of laser pulses. The LPI was used to represent the laser penetration rate and investigate the influence of flying altitude and PRF on the LPI. The results showed that as the flying altitude decreased by 1 km, the average LPI increased by 10%, and as the PRF decreased by 50 kHz, the average LPI increased by 2%. The effect of the LPI on digital elevation models (DEMs) was confirmed by visual images obtained by DEMs at five altitudes. The DEM obtained at an altitude of 2.745 km was coarsely textured, whereas that obtained at an altitude of 1.525 km was finely textured. The in-situ height data obtained from the electronic Global Navigation Satellite System (eGNSS) were compared with the data of the ALS-generated DEMs. The results indicated that when the LPI ≥60%, the height difference between the in situ data and DEM data was not prominent. However, when the LPI <60%, the ALS-derived DEM could be higher or lower than the in-situ height; the largest difference between the two was 1.7 m. The LPI of a forest should be considered for ALS survey planning, especially when consistent DEM precision for large tropical forest areas is paramount.     

地下管网空间数据模型的建立与应用

城市综合地下管网系统作为城市地理信息系统的重要组成部分是城市科学规划，管理和辅助决策等工作的重要工具，本文结合昆明市综合地下管网信息系统设计和开发的实际工作，探讨了地下管网空间数据模型的建立和应用。     

Analysis of geomagnetic field along seismic profile P4 of the International Project POLONAISE'97

This paper presents relative secular variations of the total intensity of the geomagnetic field against a background of results of magnetic anomaly interpretation along seismic profile P4. Profile P4 crosses a Variscan folding zone in the Paleozoic Platform (PLZ), the Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ), and the Polish part of the East European Craton (EEC). Secular geomagnetic field variations measured in 1966–2000 along a line adjacent to seismic profile P4 were analysed. The study of secular variations, reduced to the base recordings at the Belsk Magnetic Observatory, showed that the growth of geomagnetic field at the East European Craton was slower than in the Trans-European Suture Zone and the Paleozoic Platform.A 2D crustal magnetic model was interpreted as a result of magnetic modelling, in which seismic, geological and geothermal data were also used. The modelling showed that there were significant differences in the magnetic model for geotectonic units, which had been earlier determined based on deep seismic survey data. It should be noted that a fundamental change of trend of the relative secular variations was observed at the slope of the Precambrian Platform. After analysing the geomagnetic field observed along profile P4, the hypothesis that the contact between Phanerozoic and Precambrian Europe lies in Poland's territory can be proven.     

谈地下水数学模型在南干渠灌区中的预测与应用

地下水数学模型是用数学方法表述,经过概化地下水系统,在系统分析地下水补、径、排的基础上,对地下水预测分析的一种有效方法.随着南干渠灌区建成后水量的变化,本文通过选用适宜的数学模型,对灌区地下水资源量进行模拟计算,根据模拟计算结果对灌区地下水升幅进行预测,对灌区生态环境的变化做出评价.     

基于"3S"技术的于田绿洲湿地动态变化研究

以极端干旱区典型绿洲———于田绿洲为研究区,采用遥感(RS)、地理信息系统(GIS)和全球定位系统(GPS)相结合的方法,进行了湿地资源调查,查明了于田绿洲湿地类型、区域分布及面积,应用模型和分形理论,探讨了于田绿洲湿地的动态变化特征,并分析了其发生动态变化的原因。研究结果对于干旱区绿洲湿地的合理开发和可持续发展有着重要现实意义。     

An inverse-modelling approach to assess the impacts of climate change in the Seyhan River basin,Turkey / Une approche de modélisation inverse pour évaluer les impacts du changement climatique dans le bassin versant de la Rivière Seyhan,Turquie

Abstract

One of the most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the change in frequency of hydrological extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts on the regime of hydrological extremes have traditionally been conducted by a top-down approach that involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with the temporal and spatial characteristics of general circulation model (GCM) outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This study uses the inverse approach to model hydrological risk and vulnerability to changing climate conditions in the Seyhan River basin, Turkey. With close collaboration with the end users, the approach first identifies critical hydrological exposures that may lead to local failures in the Seyhan River basin. The Hydro-BEAM hydrological model is used to inversely transform the main hydrological exposures, such as floods and droughts, into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological conditions is investigated under present and future climate scenarios by means of a weather generator based on the improved K-nearest neighbour algorithm. The weather generator, linked with the output of GCMs in the last step of the proposed methodology, allows for the creation of an ensemble of scenarios and easy updating when improved GCM outputs become available. Two main conclusions were drawn from the application of the inverse approach to the Seyhan River basin. First, floods of 100-, 200- and 300-year return periods under present conditions will have 102-, 293- and 1370-year return periods under the future conditions; that is, critical flood events will occur much less frequently under the changing climate conditions. Second, the drought return period will change from 5.3 years under present conditions to 2.0 years under the future conditions; that is, critical drought events will occur much more frequently under the changing climate conditions.     

Tidal currents,energy flux and bottom boundary layer thickness in the Clyde Sea and North Channel of the Irish Sea

A high-resolution three-dimensional model of the Clyde Sea and the adjacent North Channel of the Irish Sea is used to compute the major diurnal and semidiurnal tides in the region, the associated energy fluxes and thickness of the bottom boundary layer. Initially, the accuracy of the model is assessed by performing a detailed comparison of computed tidal elevations and currents in the region, against an extensive database that exists for the M₂, S₂, N₂, K₁ and O₁ tides. Subsequently, the model is used to compute the tidal energy flux vectors in the region. These show that the major energy flux is confined to the North Channel region, with little energy flux into the Clyde Sea. Comparison with the observed energy flux in the North Channel shows that its across-channel distribution and its magnitude are particularly sensitive to the phase difference between elevation and current. Consequently, small changes in the computed values of these parameters due to slight changes of the order of the uncertainty in the open-boundary values to the model, can significantly influence the computed energy flux. The thickness of the bottom boundary layer in the region is computed using a number of formulations. Depending upon the definition adopted, the empirical coefficient C used to determine its thickness varies over the range 0.1 to 0.3, in good agreement with values found in the literature. In the North Channel, the boundary layer thickness occupies the whole water depth, and hence tidal turbulence produced at the sea bed keeps the region well mixed. In the Clyde Sea, the boundary layer thickness is a small fraction of the depth, and hence the region stratifies.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke