Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.     

Effects of onshore and offshore topography on sea breeze circulation: An observational study at eastern Attica,Greece

Field measurements of wind, air temperature and humidity were taken at the eastern part of the Attika district in June 1991, to examine the topographic influences exerted on the local sea breezes. These influences are due either to the elongated Evia island, faced by the northern half of Attica coastline some tens of kilometers offshore, or to the coast-parallel range of Hymettos mountain, rising steeply 12 km onshore. The instrumentation consisted mainly of three tethered meteorological balloons released at characteristic sires (i.e., the coast, a location between shoreline and mountain foot and the mountain top) and three autographic ground-based anemometers operating at selected locations. Data from the ground-based and upper air stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, as well as the diurnal weather maps were also obtained and analyzed. Observations were made under different synoptic wind and the latter was found to determine remarkably the significance of the topographic effects. A preliminary two-dimensional numerical approach was also made concerning the sea breeze capability to reach the Hymettos mountain top in the case of a weak opposing geostrophic flow.     

A stability study of asteroid families near the 3:1 and 5:2 resonance with Jupiter

By using theD-criterion Lindblad (1992) has identified 14 asteroid families from a sample of 4100 numbered asteroids with proper elements from Milani and Kneevi (1990). Taxonomic types and other physical properties for a significant number of objects in five of the families show strong homogeneity within each family, further strengthening their internal relationship.To test the hypothesis of a common origin in, e.g., a catastrophic collision event, we have set out to integrate the orbits of the members of the Maria, Dora and Oppavia-Gefion families over some 10⁶ years. The mean distance for the Maria family is close to the 3:1 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter, while the other two families lie close to the 5:2 resonance.We used a simplified solar system model which included the perturbations by Jupiter and Saturn only and implemented Everhart's variable stepsize integrator RA15. All close encounters between the family members (within 0.1 AU) were recorded as well. Preliminary results from integrations over 4×10⁵ years are presented here.The statistics of close encounters show pronounced peaks for several members within each family, while for others no significant levels above the background of random encounters or even very low frequencies were found. This indicates a subclustering within the families. Quite a lot of very close (<0.005 AU) mutual encounters are found, which suggest that, at least for the larger members in a family, the mutual gravitational interactions could be of some importance for the real orbital evolutions.The encounter statistics between the Dora and Oppavia family members suggest a possible interrelationship between this two groups.     

新疆地区夏季平流层低层风场特征分析及数值模拟

利用2017年6—8月的FNL再分析资料分析了新疆地区夏季平流层低层风场的时空演变特征，开展了平流层低层风场的高分辨率数值模拟和检验。结果表明：新疆地区夏季平流层纬向风随时间的变化存在经向差异，同时准零风层开始和结束的时间也存在经向差异，准零风层开始时间南部地区早于北部地区，而准零风层结束时间则相反。整个夏季新疆地区上空的准零风层处于70～40 hPa之间，其高度随时间呈先降低而后升高的变化趋势。准零风层数值模拟结果表明，模拟的准零风层参数与探空资料分析结果相比二者存在一致的变化趋势，准零风层起始高度的平均绝对误差为467 m，该高度对应的风速均方根误差为1.75 m/s。     

地铁施工对济南白泉泉群流量的影响

为研究地铁建设对济南白泉泉群的影响，在综合分析白泉泉域地质、水文地质条件的基础上，假定研究区岩溶强径流带位置及水力性质，利用FEFLOW软件建立地下水流数值模型。以规划地铁M1号线为研究对象，分析了济南东站、梁王站、梁王东站分别施工及3个站同时施工4种情景下，采用施工降水或施工降水+人工回灌两种施工方式对白泉泉群流量的影响。结果表明：单独采用施工降水的施工方式使得白泉泉群流量衰减，其中3个站同时施工对泉流量的影响最大，泉流量最大衰减达5.48%；各站分别施工时，济南东站对泉流量影响最大，泉流量较未施工时减少了0.043×10⁴ m³/d。采用施工降水+人工回灌的施工方式，能够有效缓解泉流量的衰减，各车站施工时的泉流量衰减由仅施工降水时的2.26%~5.48%降低至0.08%~1.21%。岩溶强径流带有利于地下水形成优势径流，促进白泉泉群补给，一定程度上缓解因地铁施工引起的泉流量衰减。     

A Block-Based Theoretical Model Suited to Gravitational Sliding

An original theoretical model has been devised to simulate mass flow over hill slopes due to gravitational sliding. The sliding mass is discretized into a sequence of contiguous blocks which are subjected to gravitational forces, to bottom friction and to surface resistance stresses that are generally negligible for subaerial flows, but are relevant for submarine slides. The blocks interact with each other while sliding down the hill flanks because of internal forces that dissipate mechanical energy and produce a momentum exchange between the individual blocks, yet conserving the total momentum of the mass. Internal forces are expressed in terms of interaction coefficients depending on the instantaneous distance between the block centers of mass, which is a measure of the deformation experienced by the blocks: the functional dependence includes three parameters, namely the interaction intensity ¯, the deformability parameter and the shape parameter , by means of which a wide range of interaction types can be fully accounted for. The time integration is performed numerically by solving the equations for the block velocities and positions at any time ti by means of the block accelerations at the previous time t_i-1, and by subsequently updating the block accelerations, which allows to proceed iteratively to the following times. The model has been tested against laboratory results available from literature and by means of several numerical experiments involving a simplified geometry both for the sliding body and the basal surface, with the purpose of clarifying the influence of the model parameters on the slide dynamics. The model improves the performance of the existing kinematic models for slides, moreover preserving an equivalent numerical simplicity. Future applications and possible improvements of this model are suggested.     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

Numerical study of droplet size dependent chemistry in oceanic,wintertime stratus cloud at southern mid-latitudes

Cloud droplet chemistry is modelled for the first 150 m of rise in a wintertime, mid-latitude, marine stratus cloud using observations made at and near the Cape Grim Baseline Station as a source of input parameters. The emphasis in this work was to study the variation in droplet chemistry as a function of both droplet size and nucleus composition, with a particular focus on the way in which oxidation of dissolved sulfur dioxide varied.At 150 m above the condensation level, solute concentration as a function of droplet size was found to increase by as much as 2 to 3 orders of magnitude for only a factor of 2 increase in droplet radius, primarily as a consequence of the 1/r dependence in the droplet growth equation. This type of size dependence exists at all levels in the model cloud, and has a significant influence on oxidation rate of sulfur dioxide in droplets growing on sulfate nuclei, oxidation by ozone being favoured in the smallest droplets, but oxidation by hydrogen peroxide being favoured in the larger droplets. Oxidation by ozone is favoured at all sizes in droplets formed on sea-salt nuclei as a result of the initially high alkalinity of these droplets, and in the cloud overall is calculated to be the more important oxidation pathway. Although based on a simplified chemical scheme, these results suggest that both size-dependent and nucleus-dependent chemistry of cloud droplets may need to be considered explicitly in cloud modelling work.Volume-weighted mean pH values in the range 5 to 6 were predicted from sensitivity studies in which input variables were varied over reasonable ranges, in agreement with two sets of bulk cloud-water pH data obtained by aircraft near Cape Grim.     

The effects of carbon dioxide leakage on fractures, and water quality of potable aquifers during geological sequestration of CO2

Since industrial revolution, the ＂greenhouse effect＂ is one of the most important global environmental issues. Of all the greenhouse gases, CO2 is responsible for about 64% of the enhanced ＂greenhouse effect＂, making it the target for mitigation, so reducing anthropogenic discharge of carbon dioxide attracts more and more attention. Geological sequestration of CO2 in deep saline aquifers is one of the most promising options. But because unknown fractures and faults may exist in the caprock layers which can prevent the leakage of CO2, CO2 will leak upward into upper potable aquifers, and lead to adverse impacts on the shallow potable aquifers. In order to assess the potential effect of CO2 leakage from underground storage reservoirs on fractures and water quality of potable aquifers, this study used the non-isothermal reactive geochemical transport code TOUGHREACT developed by Xu et al to establish a simplified 2-D model of CO2 underground sequestration system, which includes deep saline aquifers, caprock layers, and shallow potable aquifers, and study and analyze the changes of mineral and aqueous components. The simulation results indicated that the minerals of deep saline aquifers and fractures should be mainly composed of aluminosilicate and silicate minerals, which not only enhance the mass of CO2 sequestrated by mineral trapping, but also decrease the porosity and permeability of caprock layers and fractures to prevent and reduce CO2 leakage. The results from deep saline aquifers showed that the mass of carbon dioxide trapped by minerals and solution phases is limited, the rest remained as a supercritical phase, and so once the caprock aquifers have some unknown fractures, the free carbon dioxide phase may leak from CO2 geologic sequestration reservoirs by buoyancy.     

Controls on low-pressure anatexis

Low-pressure anatexis, whereby rocks melt in place after passing through the andalusite stability field, develops under more restricted conditions than does low-pressure metamorphism. Our thermal modelling and review of published work indicate that the following mechanisms, operating alone, may induce anatexis in typical pelitic rocks without inducing wholesale melting in the lower crust: (i) magmatic advection by pervasive flow; (ii) crustal-scale detachment faulting; and (iii) the presence of a high heat-producing layer. Of these, only magmatic advection by pervasive flow and crustal-scale detachment faulting have been shown quantitatively to provide sufficient heat to cause widespread melting. Combinations of the above mechanisms with pluton-scale magmatic advection, shear heating, removal of the lithospheric mantle, or with each other provide additional means of developing suitable high temperatures at shallow crustal levels to generate low-pressure anatexis.