DF1-1底辟区构造应力场及渗流场演化的数值模拟研究

DF1-1底辟区是莺歌海盆地内超压流体最活跃的地带之一.超压流体的活动直接受控于构造应力及其形成的不同类型的断裂和裂隙构成的输导系统.从底辟区大规模流体垂向活动以及幕式活动的特征来看, 流体流动的动力主要是由于垂向压差的存在以及渗流场变化引起的局部应力场(包括热应力场) 的作用所致.在详细研究底辟区的构造及流体活动关系的基础上, 对底辟区构造应力场及渗流场的演化进行了模拟.结果显示: 构造运动引起的应力场决定了DF1-1底辟区油气沿主要断裂系走向迁移的总趋势, 在底辟区流体从底辟的两侧向其中心运移, 由底辟体中向上运移为主; 高压流体产生的热应力控制局部应力场状况及油气运移方向, 驱动流体向底辟体顶部运移, 当热应力值过大时有可能改变应力场状况以及油气运移总趋势.      

Influence of melt‐freeze‐cycles on the radionuclide transport in homogeneous laboratory snowpack

Radionuclides released to the environment and deposited with or onto snow can be stored over long time periods if ambient temperature stays low, particularly in glaciated areas or high alpine sites. The radionuclides will be accumulated in the snowpack during the winter unless meltwater runoff at the snow base occurs. They will be released to surface waters within short time during snowmelt in spring. In two experiments under controlled melting conditions of snow in the laboratory, radionuclide migration and runoff during melt‐freeze‐cycles were examined. The distribution of Cs‐134 and Sr‐85 tracers in homogeneous snow columns and their fractionation and potential preferential elution in the first meltwater portions were determined. Transport was associated with the percolation of meltwater at ambient temperatures above 0 °C after the snowpack became ripe. Mean migration velocities in the pack were examined for both nuclides to about 0.5 cm hr^?1 after one diurnal melt‐freeze‐cycle at ambient temperatures of ?2 to 4 °C. Meltwater fluxes were calculated with a median of 1.68 cm hr^?1. Highly contaminated portions of meltwater with concentration factors between 5 and 10 against initial bulk concentrations in the snowpack were released as ionic pulse with the first meltwater. Neither for caesium nor strontium preferential elution was observed. After recurrent simulated day‐night‐cycles (?2 to 4 °C), 80% of both radionuclides was released with the first 20% of snowmelt within 4 days. 50% of Cs‐134 and Sr‐85 were already set free after 24 hr. Snowmelt contained highest specific activities when the melt rate was lowest during the freeze‐cycles due to concentration processes in remaining liquids, enhanced by the melt‐freeze‐cycling. This implies for natural snowpack after significant radionuclide releases, that long‐time accumulation of radionuclides in the snow during frost periods, followed by an onset of steady meltwater runoff at low melt rates, will cause the most pronounced removal of the contaminants from the snow cover. This scenario represents the worst case of impact on water quality and radiation exposure in aquatic environments.     

Coupled influence of flow velocity and water temperature on grass carp swimming behaviour and gonad development

Reproductive migration is an essential phase in the life of many fish. During this process, swimming behaviour and gonad development are key factors related to the migration quality, and both factors are strongly influenced by water temperature and flow velocity. Many studies have explored the separate effects of these variables on fish swimming ability or gonad development, but researchers have seldom investigated the simultaneous effects of low flow velocity and water temperature on the fish swimming behaviour and gonad development. To provide that knowledge, we conducted laboratory experiments that explored the coupled effects of low water temperature and flow on warm water fish swimming behaviour and gonad development. At five temperatures (16, 18, 20, 22, and 24°C), we observed the movement of migratory warmwater grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idellus) at seven flow velocities (0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3, 0.35, 0.40, and 0.45 m/s), then explored their gonad development by comparing the level of plasma 17β-estradiol and testosterone in fish travelling through a simulated fish way (flow stimulation) and in a fish tank (no flow stimulation). We used Bayesian networks to explore the acceptable hydrological condition for fish migration. We found that the minimum flow velocity for acceptable migration quality is a function of the water temperature, and that increasing water temperature improves fish movement success and increases the movement distance, especially at a low flow velocity. In addition, increasing water temperature (between 16 and 24°C in this experiment design) can enhance the effect of flow stimulation on gonad development. Overall, our results can broaden the understanding of reducing water temperature and flow velocity in fish swimming behaviour and gonad development, provide basic data to support hydrological process controls and the development of measures to protect fish migration.     

Amplification or suppression: Social networks and the climate change—migration association in rural Mexico

Increasing rates of climate migration may be of economic and national concern to sending and destination countries. It has been argued that social networks—the ties connecting an origin and destination—may operate as “migration corridors” with the potential to strongly facilitate climate change-related migration. This study investigates whether social networks at the household and community levels amplify or suppress the impact of climate change on international migration from rural Mexico. A novel set of 15 climate change indices was generated based on daily temperature and precipitation data for 214 weather stations across Mexico. Employing geostatistical interpolation techniques, the climate change values were linked to 68 rural municipalities for which sociodemographic data and detailed migration histories were available from the Mexican Migration Project. Multi-level discrete-time event-history models were used to investigate the effect of climate change on international migration between 1986 and 1999. At the household level, the effect of social networks was approximated by comparing the first to the last move, assuming that through the first move a household establishes internal social capital. At the community level, the impact of social capital was explored through interactions with a measure of the proportion of adults with migration experience. The results show that rather than amplifying, social capital may suppress the sensitivity of migration to climate triggers, suggesting that social networks could facilitate climate change adaptation in place.     

挪威中部陆架油气地质特征及勘探潜力

以收集到的挪威中部陆架最新地质基础资料和油气田资料为依据,归纳总结该区的烃源岩、储集层、生储盖组合及油气运移特征,分析其勘探潜力,为相关公司介入本区的油气勘探提供依据。综合研究结果认为,挪威中部陆架烃源岩主要为下侏罗统re组三角洲平原相泥页岩及煤层和上侏罗统Spekk组海相泥页岩,其中上侏罗统Spekk组海相泥页岩是主力烃源岩;储层主要为白垩系—新近系浊积砂岩和中侏罗统裂谷期Fangst群滨浅海相砂岩,其中主力储层为中侏罗统裂谷期滨浅海相砂岩;发育裂谷期下生上储(正常)和上生下储两种组合模式;油气通过裂缝、疏导层及断层等作短距离汇聚,通过地层不整合面或连通砂体作长距离运移。该区油气成藏条件优越,资源潜力巨大,储量约为73×108桶油当量,待发现油气田约36个,随着油气勘探的逐步展开,挪威中部陆架必将还有重大油气发现。     

油藏地球化学在勘探中的研究进展及应用:以北部湾盆地福山凹陷为例

基于成熟度梯度和油气运移地色层分馏效应原理,油藏地球化学研究可示踪油气运移方向、优势充注路径、潜在烃源灶方位,从而定位"卫星"油气藏,直接指导油气勘探工作。目前示踪标志物已从传统的咔唑类含氮化合物和甾萜类生物标志化合物发展到含硫和含氧杂原子多环芳烃化合物。南海北部边缘北部湾盆地福山凹陷早期油藏地球化学研究结果表明,位于凹陷中部构造带的花场次凸已发现石油主要来自位于其北东方向的白莲次凹烃源灶,并预测位于花场次凸东部的花东、白莲构造带及凸起往白莲次凹的上游方向最有利的勘探目标区,并得到油气勘探发现和后期的油藏地球化学研究结果证实。精细的示踪参数值等值线图不但确定了油气运移的方向,也预测了优势的充注路径,可直接指导勘探部署。     

安徽庐江泥河铁矿床蚀变-矿化作用及元素迁移规律

传统方法不能明确揭示泥河铁矿床多阶段热液叠加蚀变过程中元素迁移的继承性特征.运用等浓度图法(the isocon diagram),根据该区晚阶段蚀变都是叠加在稍早阶段蚀变之上的实际情况,采用早期蚀变岩石为原岩与稍晚期蚀变岩石的不活动元素拟合最佳等浓度方程,定量揭示主量元素在热液蚀变过程的迁移规律.研究表明,泥河铁矿床阳离子的沉淀顺序大致为:Na→Ca、Mg、Fe、P→Ca、Fe→Al、Si.从早到晚,元素的带入和带出是连续互补的,蚀变矿化作用是一个连续的过程.钠长石的大量出现是Na质沉淀的标志,代表铁矿化的开始;膏辉岩化是Ca、Mg、Fe质沉淀的表现形式,为磁铁矿体的近矿和容矿蚀变;次生石英岩化、高岭石化是早期迁移出的Al、Si质沉淀的结果,是磁铁矿化远程指示性蚀变.      

基于百度迁徙数据的中国城市网络结构特征研究

迁徙流作为互联网时代的新产物,信息流、资本流、交通流等流空间的基本载体,能客观地反映城市间地理行为关系,对于刻画城市网络结构具有重要意义。基于地级以上城市的百度迁徙大数据,本文尝试从全域和净迁徙的视角探索研究中国城市网络结构特征,对其网络的层级、关联关系和影响因素等进行挖掘提取。研究发现：① 全国城市网络呈现出稳定的、层级明确的三棱锥四顶点“钻石型”结构,与主要城市群的经济规模空间分布相吻合;② 区域网络表现出向高级别行政中心集聚的“核心—外围”放射状结构;③ 以省会城市为核心的典型小世界特征比较凸出,小世界网络的可达性和连通性较高;周口、阜阳、赣州、上饶、重庆等作为主要劳动力输出型城市,深圳、东莞、广州、北京、上海等城市成为了主要的外来人口聚集地,并形成了对应的人口就近输送网络关系;④ 城市的行政地位、经济规模、交通枢纽建设、劳动力资源等因素都对其网络控制力和影响力起到了决定性作用。最后,研究结合中国城市网络结构特征及其主要影响因素,提出相关政策建议,以期为中国城市网络结构均衡发展与建设提供借鉴依据。     

中国城际联系距离衰减的非线性规律——基于人口流动大数据

以人口流动为表征的空间相互作用是热点议题,然而关于其影响因素的非线性机制尚未被充分揭示。论文利用2018年腾讯迁徙大数据,以梯度提升决策树模型改进重力模型,分析距离衰减系数的非线性特征。研究发现：(1)城际联系的距离衰减系数呈非线性,偏依赖图曲线存在2个“平台区”(距离衰减系数接近于0)和2个“衰减区”(距离衰减系数约为2.8),将直线距离替换为路网距离,2018年数据替换为其他年份数据后,结果仍然稳健;(2)与基准模型相比,航空、铁路及公路交通下的距离衰减系数非线性特征存在显著差异,春运期间的距离衰减系数基本保持一致。建议根据城际联系距离衰减规律布局都市圈和城市群,优化国土空间发展格局。     

Spatial-temporal patterns of China’s interprovincial migration, 1985–2010

Migration plays an increasing role in China＇s economy since mobility rose and economic restructuring has proceeded during the last three decades. Given the background of most studies focusing on migration in a particular period, there is a critical need to analyze the spatial-temporal patterns of migration. Using bicomponent trend mapping technique and interprovincial migration data during the periods 1985-1990, 1990-1995, 1995-2000, 2000- 2005, and 2005-2010 we analyze net-, in-, out-migration intensity, and their changes over time in this study. Strong spatial variations in migration intensity were found in China＇s interprovincial migration, and substantial increase in migration intensity was also detected in eastern China during 1985-2010. Eight key destinations are mostly located within the three rapidly growing economic zones of eastern China （Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region）, and they are classified into three types： mature, emerging, and fluctuant origins, while most key origins are relatively undeveloped central and western provinces, which are exactly in accordance with China＇s economic development patterns. The results of bicomponent trend mapping indicate that, in a sense, the migration in the south was more active than the north over the last three decades. The result shows the new changing features of spatial-temporal patterns of China＇s interprovincial migration that Fan and Chen did not find out in their research. A series of social-economic changes including rural transformation, balanced regional development, and labor market changes should be paid more attention to explore China＇s future interprovincial migration.