基于数据立方体的多最小支持度关联规则在犯罪分析中的应用

为了快速获取候选项集的支持度,避免频繁访问数据库而造成效率低下的问题,在MSapriori算法的基础上引入数据立方体,提出DC_MSapriori算法。该算法无需多次扫描事务数据库,减少了I/O操作,降低了搜索开销。实验基于福州市鼓楼区各大医院周边的案事件数据,快速挖掘出犯罪时空模式,验证了算法的有效性。     

Novel evaluation metrics for sparse spatio-temporal point process hotspot predictions - a crime case study

Many physical and sociological processes are represented as discrete events in time and space. These spatio-temporal point processes are often sparse, meaning that they cannot be aggregated and treated with conventional regression models. Models based on the point process framework may be employed instead for prediction purposes. Evaluating the predictive performance of these models poses a unique challenge, as the same sparseness prevents the use of popular measures such as the root mean squared error. Statistical likelihood is a valid alternative, but this does not measure absolute performance and is therefore difficult for practitioners and researchers to interpret. Motivated by this limitation, we develop a practical toolkit of evaluation metrics for spatio-temporal point process predictions. The metrics are based around the concept of hotspots, which represent areas of high point density. In addition to measuring predictive accuracy, our evaluation toolkit considers broader aspects of predictive performance, including a characterisation of the spatial and temporal distributions of predicted hotspots and a comparison of the complementarity of different prediction methods. We demonstrate the application of our evaluation metrics using a case study of crime prediction, comparing four varied prediction methods using crime data from two different locations and multiple crime types. The results highlight a previously unseen interplay between predictive accuracy and spatio-temporal dispersion of predicted hotspots. The new evaluation framework may be applied to compare multiple prediction methods in a variety of scenarios, yielding valuable new insight into the predictive performance of point process-based prediction.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of crime by developing a method to detect critical distances for the Knox test

The present study examined and compared spatio–temporal interaction of the theft of car parts, shop burglary and motorcycle theft in the central business district (CBD) of the city of Zanjan in Iran. The Knox test was selected to detect spatio–temporal interaction. This test has been criticized as being subjective because the selection of critical distances is arbitrary; thus, a method is proposed to detect critical distances in the Knox test using the mean distance, natural breaks classification of nearest neighbour (NN) distance and Ripley’s k function. Results show obvious differences between the spatio-temporal clusters of the three sets of crimes. They also indicate that changing the spatial cut-offs within a cluster creates different temporal patterns. Of the three criteria for determining critical distances, NN classification based on natural breaks showed more interactions than the other methods.     

基于多视图协同的时空数据可视分析方法

针对时空数据可视分析中存在的问题,提出了由可视分析模型(VAM)和交互协同模型(ICM)组成的多视图协同可视分析模型,将可视分析过程划分为数据变换、数据分析、可视映射和可视绘制4个过程;以可视分析过程中的参数作为协同主题,利用观察者模式,实现关联视图在交互过程中的协同一致;设计了Web环境下,基于"图数协同"和"图图协同"交互模式的多视图协同可视分析架构;构建了犯罪时空数据可视分析原型系统,并利用系统分析了福州市扒窃案的时空分布规律,对涉案价值较高的扒窃案进行了犯罪模式分析。     

ZG市诈骗犯罪的时空分布与影响因素

诈骗犯罪是现代城市中亟待解决的一大社会难题。现有研究多从社会学角度,基于微观层次探讨影响诈骗受害的个人属性特征,缺乏从地理学视角对诈骗受害者生存环境中的中宏观层次因素的考虑。本文基于犯罪地理学视角,综合运用平均最近邻、核密度以及负二项回归等研究方法,对ZG市5类诈骗警情的时空分布特征和基于建成环境与社会环境两大维度的影响因素进行了深入探讨。结果表明：① 各类诈骗的时间分布规律各异,但整体上呈现出工作日高于休息日、下午或晚上高于上午、凌晨时段为最低的特征;② 和其他类型的城市犯罪类似,诈骗犯罪整体呈现出与老城区距离衰减的“多中心”显著性集聚特征;各类型诈骗热点的空间分布大同小异,多分布在城市的老城区、CBD、火（汽）车站、城中村或高校布局的周边地带;③ 各类诈骗犯罪的空间分布影响因素各异,但整体表现出与银行网点、旅游景点、道路密度、土地利用混合度、高校等建成环境因素高度相关;与购买商品房家庭占比、受教育水平、人口老龄化和城镇化水平等社会环境显著相关的特性。本文拓展了犯罪地理学领域对诈骗犯罪的研究成果,证实了各类诈骗犯罪符合日常活动理论的理论假设,对诈骗受害情景预防具有重要意义。     

The spatial stability of alcohol outlets and crime in post‐disaster Christchurch,New Zealand

The devastating Canterbury Earthquakes of 2010 and 2011 left an indelible mark on the city of Christchurch. The social and economic upheaval that immediately followed the Earthquakes has, in time, been replaced with a period of rebuild and transformation. In this study we investigate the effects that the Canterbury Earthquakes had on two important and inter‐related phenomena in the city: alcohol availability and crime. More specifically, we investigate how alcohol outlets and crime across six different categories changed in magnitude and spatial distribution pre‐ (end‐2009) and post‐ (end‐2014) earthquake. We do this using a variety of geospatial techniques including a relatively new method: the spatial point pattern test which allows for the identification of changes in spatial patterns at the local level. Results indicate that both alcohol outlets and crime have decreased in magnitude since the Canterbury Earthquakes. Using the spatial point pattern test we found statistically significant differences in spatial point patterns for both alcohol outlets and all crime types pre‐ to post‐earthquake. The similarity in the differences of the spatial distributions of alcohol outlets and crime provides a first empirical clue of their potential association in the city post‐earthquake.     

体育馆屋盖结构的非接触式实时沉降监测

本文针对某体育馆屋盖结构沉降监测的任务要求,采用了基于经纬仪或全站仪角度观测的非接触式沉降监测方法;论述了其测量原理及详细的作业过程,在论证测距误差及水平位移对沉降量计算影响可忽略不计的基础上,分析了该方法可达到的精度水平。为满足实时性监测的要求,采用Visual Basic语言编制了联机测量程序,实时记录和存储观测数据及计算成果。工程实践表明,该方法能够在水准测量无法实施的情况下,有效解决不易到达变形体的沉降监测难题。     

Book Reviews

Boris, Eileen and Prugel, Elisabeth (eds.), Homeworkers in Global Perspective: Invisible No More Chrisman, Nicholas R., Exploring Geographic Information Systems Cox, Kevin R. (ed.), Spaces of Globalization: Reasserting the Power of the Local. Cullingworth, Barry, Planning in the USA: Policies, Issues and Processes Elliott, David, Energy, Society and Environment Hood, Christopher and Jones, David K. C. (eds.), Accident and Design: Contemporary Debates in Risk Management Jones, John Paul, III; Nast, Heidi J. and Roberts, Susan M. (eds.), Thresholds in Feminist Geography: Difference, Methodology, Representation Longley, Paul and Batty, Michael (eds.), Spatial Analysis: Modelling in a GIS Environment Masudpiloto, Felix Roberto, From Welcomed Exiles to Illegal Immigrants: Cuban Migration to the U.S., 1959–1995 Monmonier, Mark, Cartographies of Danger: Mapping Hazards in America Phelps, Nicholas A., Multinationals and European Integration: Trade Investment, and Regional Development Short, Nicholas M. and Blair, Robert W., Jr. (eds.), Geomorphology From Space: A Global Overview of Regional Landforms Sorenson, John L. and Raish, Martin H., Pre-Columbian Contact with the Americas across the Oceans: An Annotated Bibliography Thompson, Gary L., Shelley, Fred M., and Wije, Chand (eds.), Geography, Environment, and American Law Thompson, Russell D. and Perry, Allen (eds.), Applied Climatology: Principles and Practice Williams, Colin C., Consumer Services and Economic Development     

加拿大爱得蒙顿市犯罪问题的地理研究*

运用GIS技术和回归分析方法,分析加拿大爱得蒙顿市各类犯罪的空间分布规律。结果发现：城市犯罪分布的空间差异异常明显,城市内部存在少数极端的犯罪高发区;犯罪的空间分布遵循距离衰减规律,表现为距城市中心越近的地区犯罪发生密度越高,距城市中心越远的地区犯罪密度越低;犯罪发生密度与居住人口密度成正相关,即居住人口密度越高,越容易诱发犯罪,但不同类型的犯罪与居住人口密度的关联程度不一样;不同用地性质的区域犯罪发生密度存在明显差异,在各类用地中,商业区为城市犯罪的高发区。     

Local state restructuring and urban transformation in post-apartheid Cape Town

This paper analyzes processes of state restructuring at the scale of the local state and the city, exploring the social and political relationships generated through processes of reconstruction specifically in Elsies River, a formerly segregated `coloured' neighborhood in Cape Town. While the relationship between Elsies River residents and the local state has been characterized by an obsessive focus on housing debt, I examine the ways in which antagonism over housing problems overlie a broader relational disjuncture between neighborhood and state political and social networks. The specificity of this case provides a lens onto the ways in which processes of state restructuring both contest and reinforce racial, economic, and place-based inequalities in South African cities. The paper concludes by using the complexities of local state-neighborhood relationships in the South African case to reflect on geographical theories of state-society relations on a conceptual level. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.