Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure

Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures.     

新疆区域基础设施与经济耦合的关联分析

本文以新疆为例,运用灰色关联分析法构建出区域基础设施与经济交互作用的关联度模型和耦合度模型,定性与定量相结合揭示出新疆基础设施与经济发展耦合的主要影响因素及耦合机制,并分别从时空角度分析耦合度的时序演变规律和空间分布特点。研究结果表明:(1)基础设施与经济发展各要素之间的耦合是复杂的,总体上表现在基础设施对经济发展的支撑、反馈作用和经济发展对基础设施的促进作用两个方面。通过关联度计算遴选出作用于经济的10项基础设施指标和影响基础设施的6项经济指标,它们较为全面地反映了系统交互耦合的机制;(2)交通运输、邮电通信与人均GDP的关联性最强,进一步建立作用关系模型,得出交通运输、邮电通信的基本建设投入对人均GDP的弹性为0.264。(3)基础设施和经济发展耦合度的时序变动表现出明显的阶段性和波动性,且空间各异,根据耦合度大小并结合区域经济发展与基础设施建设的实际情况,将新疆15个地州市划分为经济发展超前型、趋近协调型、同步协调型和低水平耦合型等4种类型,总体而言以同步协调型为主。     

Engineering vibration monitoring by GPS： long duration records

Monitoring the performance of any structure requires real-time measurements of the change of position of critical points.Different techniques can be used for this purpose,each one offering advantages and disadvantages.The technique based on satellite positioning systems(GPS,GLONASS and the future GALILEO)seems to be very promising at least for long period structures.The GPS in particular provides sampling rates that are able to track dynamic displacements with high accuracy.Its service ability is indepen...     

昆明城市基础设施建设与城市管理问题与对策

城市的基础设施建设是一个城市的血脉和生命。它代表着一个城市的政治、经济和文化品位,代表着市民的社会公德素质和文化素质,代表着一个城市的城市精神。在面临今天大开发、大发展的新形势下,昆明的城市基础设施的建设和管理存在着一些问题：重建设轻管理、建设与管理主体不统一、管理的落后等。针对这些问题,围绕项目全生命周期管理,转变政府职能等理念,提出了引入市场竞争机制;建立城建资金良性循环机制等相应的对策。     

交通基础设施投资与区域经济增长的互动关系——基于西部大开发的实证分析

自2000年以来交通基础设施投资对推动西部地区经济增长效果显著,投资规模和分布的变化对经济效率具有重要影响。货运量对西部地区的GDP有着正向的作用,但是客运量和货运周转量对西部地区经济增长的作用为负。经济发展是影响货物运输需求的最敏感因素,交通基础设施滞后造成的西部经济增长同其发展潜力的错位依然存在。同初期开发规模和模式相比,对西部地区交通基础设施的进一步投资必须要保证西部各省市区的经济发展能够真正受惠于交通基础设施的完善,提高投资的经济效率。     

探地雷达应用于城市固体废弃物填埋场的构想

介绍了探地雷达技术的基本工作原理及其在某些领域的应用效果,提出了应用探地雷达技术进行城市固体废弃物填埋场选址、渗漏检测以及封场后覆盖层厚度测定等研究的构想,并探讨了探地雷达技术的可行性和技术优势。在总结相关文献的基础上,结合现场调查认为,应用探地雷达技术进行填埋场选址、渗漏检测以及封场后覆盖层厚度测定等研究工作是行之有效的一种新方法。     

面向对象集成化空间数据库管理系统的设计与实现

新一代地理信息系统要求矢量、影像和DEM数据集成化管理。本文提出了一种基于面向对象思想的矢量、影像和DEM三库集成的空间数据模型 ,讨论了集成化空间数据库管理系统的实现方式。该空间数据库管理系统已作为GIS软件GeoStar的核心 ,被用于中国的空间数据基础设施建设 ,管理国家级、省级和市级的多数据源、多比例尺的空间数据 ,被认为是一种高效可行的方案     

测绘知识基础设施建设构想

从知识基础设施的概念出发 ,阐述了建设测绘知识基础设施的重要性及其任务。认为测绘知识基础设施是测绘知识创新和技术创新的基础 ,建设测绘知识基础设施应重点加强测绘期刊的规范化出版和加快测绘知识数据库建设及信息网络建设。     

粉煤灰在垃圾淋滤液循环处理中的作用

目前 ,城市固体废物主要采用地质填埋处理 ,淋滤液循环可以使填埋场的稳定化进程加快。但使用淋滤液循环方法的填埋场中仍有大量需要进一步处理的淋滤液。粉煤灰具有优良的吸附净化功能 ,介绍了粉煤灰在垃圾淋滤液循环处理中的作用。通过分析粉煤灰与垃圾混合处理 ,及在此基础上进一步采用粉煤灰做过滤层的不同效果 ,表明粉煤灰可以在填埋场淋滤液循环处理方法中起到一个较好的作用。这种方法在实际应用中还需做进一步的研究工作。     

城市固体废弃物填埋场的岩土工程问题

论述了国内外城市卫生填埋场相关的岩土工程问题及其研究现状,包括卫生填埋场填埋体物理力学性质、卫生填埋场的防渗系统和边坡稳定等一系列岩土工程问题,在此基础上初步探讨了我国城市卫生填埋场相关岩土工程问题的发展前景。