新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法

针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。     

地质灾害井间地震层析成像研究

地质灾害体如岩溶、陷落柱、软弱层等的井间地震层析成像属于复杂模型或大扰动异常体的非线性成像，该文首次将小波多尺度思想纺入到蟛间层析成像，建立了小波多尺度井间地震层析成像方法，很好地解决了非线性成像的难题，大大地提高了图像的质量和分辨率，数值模型试验和实际工程应用证实了该方法的实用性和良好效果。     

Artificial neural networks and nonlinear regression techniques to assess the influence of slake durability cycles on the prediction of uniaxial compressive strength and modulus of elasticity for carbonate rocks

Understanding rock material characterizations and solving relevant problems are quite difficult tasks because of their complex behavior, which sometimes cannot be identified without intelligent, numerical, and analytical approaches. Because of that, some prediction techniques, like artificial neural networks (ANN) and nonlinear regression techniques, can be utilized to solve those problems. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of the cycling integer of slake durability index test on intact rock behavior and estimate some rock properties, such as uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) and modulus of elasticity (E) from known rock index parameters using ANN and various regression techniques. Further, new performance index (PI) and degree of consistency (Cd) are introduced to examine the accuracy of generated models. For these purposes, intact rock dataset is established by performing rock tests including uniaxial compressive strength, modulus of elasticity, Schmidt hammer, effective porosity, dry unit weight, p‐wave velocity, and slake durability index tests on selected carbonate rocks. Afterward, the models are developed using ANN and nonlinear regression techniques. The concluding remark given is that four‐cycle slake durability index (I_d4) provides more accurate results to evaluate material characterization of carbonate rocks, and it is one of the reliable input variables to estimate UCS and E of carbonate rocks; introduced performance indices, both PI and Cd, may be accepted as good indicators to assess the accuracy of the complex models, and further, the ANN models have more prediction capability than the regression techniques to estimate relevant rock properties. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mineral variation in anorthositic, troctolitic, and adamellitic rocks of the Barth Island layered structure in the Nain anorthosite complex, Labrador

The Barth Island layered structure is an oval, 6 by 9 km body, consisting of rhythmically layered adamellitic rock in the center which grades outward through jotunite into troctolite. Farther outward the sequence repeats itself in reversed order, strongly reduced in magnitude and finer grained; the adamellitic zone is followed by jotunite which grades into coarse-grained leuconorite and into anorthosite of the Nain complex. The Barth Island structure, having an inverted conical base topped by a hemispherical depression, seems to represent a distorted sequence of rock layers with troctolite at the bottom, grading upward into adamellitic rocks which grade into anorthosite at the top. Trend-surface analysis demonstrates the regional variation of plagioclase and orthopyroxene compositions in the troctolite—adamellite sequence of the central part of the structure. The fits for the second- and third-degree surfaces are good and significant at the 99 percent level. The regression line for compositional variation in coexisting plagioclase and orthopyroxene in all analyzed rocks has a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.78. The difference between the trends in the troctolite—adamellite sequence and the anorthosite—adamellite sequence is insignificant. The regression curve for compositional variation in coexisting orthopyroxene and olivine has a correlation coefficient of r² = 0.98. The curve shows good correlation with the experimentally established partitioning curve of Medaris, which indicates that equilibrium conditions prevailed during formation of the olivine—ortho-pyroxene pairs. The results suggest that the troctolite—adamellite sequence and the anorthosite—adamellite sequence are products of fractional crystallization, possibly from the same parental magma.     

ArcGIS证据权模型在铜矿成矿预测中的应用 ——以博格达-哈尔里克成矿带为例

本文选择博格达-哈尔里克一带作为研究区,从区域成矿地质背景入手,鉴于该地区已知成型铜矿床较少,成矿规律研究薄弱,故作者采用ArcGIS平台下的证据权模型(WofE),以数据驱动方式为主,从断裂构造、沉积岩相与建造、火山岩建造、侵入岩岩性等方面,以学生化反差S(C)作为有利因子衡量指标,对各控矿因素进行影响程度分类,利用加权逻辑斯回归模型计算成矿后验概率,根据后验概率值的大小进行成矿远景区的圈定和分级,在博格达-哈尔里克成矿带内共圈定7个成矿远景区。最后结合区域化探资料进行了验证,结果显示所圈定的铜矿成矿远景区内化探异常明显,与Cu元素异常套合较好,说明ArcGIS证据权模型能很好地为区域矿产预测提供良好的技术支撑,为研究区铜矿找矿方向提供理论依据,文中所总结的基于ArcGIS平台的证据权计算方法流程也为区域矿产预测提供了方法借鉴。     

突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型与应用

通过引入地质灾害潜势度,突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型解决了雨量判据法不能明确表达地质环境条件的问题,在此基础上,提出了潜势度计算、大气降雨变量设计、预警方程优化3方面的改进方法。为提高潜势度计算的准确性,增加了基于卡方检验的地质环境因子独立性判别步骤;对地质环境因子确信程度初始值和权值计算中确信程度变化量初始值设置进行了规定;并将预警模型中累计雨量修正为更为合理的有效累计雨量。在现有的预警方程的基础上提出了基于联合概率分析的预警方程,避免了其与基本地质认识和物理规律存在一定距离、方程系数的意义不明确的局限。以2009年7月2日发布的24 h雨量预报为例,计算结果表明：虽然预报区域面积从101 008 km²减小到27 553 km²,但是地质灾害点落入预报区的比例从44%增加到62%。这说明通过改进的预警模型理论上更加严密,空间准确率有所提高,空报率有所下降。     

对电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定的地下水中 Tl元素不确定度的评定

采用不确定度连续传递模型,对电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定的地下水中Tl元素的不确定度进行评定。采用双误差回归的方式对标准曲线进行拟合,通过计算出各分量的不确定度,合成得到测量结果的总不确定度,但是并没有考虑前处理过程中产生的不确定度。结果表明,当实际样品中Tl的含量较低时,其曲线拟合产生的不确定度贡献影响较大,甚至成为主导因素,而当Tl的含量较高时曲线拟合产生的不确定度贡献率变得很小。     

基于广义回归神经网络的砂土液化综合判别方法

基于厦门地区大量钻孔试验数据,分别采用规范法和Seed法对该区饱和砂土进行液化判别。然后选取二者判别结果相同的数据作为训练和测试样本,运用广义回归神经网络,对二者判别结果分歧的钻孔数据进行二次判别。结果表明:广义回归神经网络性能良好,预测准确度高。此外,这种综合判别方法也提高了饱和砂土液化判别的准确度,并为其他地区饱和砂土的液化判别研究提供借鉴和参考。     

Soulèvement et plissement tectoniques révélés par analyse mathématique empirique de profils longitudinaux de rivières : un cas à TaiwanEmpirical mathematical analysis of longitudinal river profiles reveals tectonic uplift and folding: a case in Taiwan

We analyse longitudinal river profiles in southwestern Taiwan. As all necessary data are not available, a physical modelling of river erosion would be subject to large uncertainties. We thus shortcut this modelling and adopt simple empirical exponential equations giving riverbed elevation as a function of downstream distance. We identify a positive altimetric anomaly, which reveals active uplift of an anticline at the front of the fold-and-thrust belt. To cite this article: J. Angelier, R.-F. Chen, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1103–1111.     

新型热压WC-Fe基金刚石钻头胎体性能研究

为了提高钻头在坚硬致密岩层中的钻进效果并降低钻头成本,将传统的热压碳化钨（WC）基金刚石钻头胎体中一部分WC用Fe代替。用粉末冶金的方法烧制胎体试块并测试其性能。通过对比性能测试,分析了碳化钨和铁的含量变化对胎体性能的影响规律。应用回归分析和规划求解,分别建立了硬度和耐磨性的回归方程,确定了最优的胎体硬度和耐磨性以及对应的胎体配方。