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On seasonal approach to flood frequency modelling. Part II: flood frequency analysis of Polish rivers

The annual peak flow series of Polish rivers are mixtures of summer and winter flows. As Part II of a sequence of two papers, practical aspects of applicability of seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis (FFA) of Polish rivers are discussed. Taking A Two‐Component Extreme Value (TCEV1) model as an example it was shown in the first part that regardless of estimation method, the seasonal approach can give profit in terms of upper quantile estimation accuracy that rises with the return period of the quantile and is the greatest for no seasonal variation. In this part, an assessment of annual maxima (AM) versus seasonal maxima (SM) approach to FFA was carried out with respect to seasonal and annual peak flow series of 38 Polish gauging stations. First, the assumption of mutual independence of the seasonal maxima has been tested. The smoothness of SM and AM empirical probability distribution functions was analysed and compared. The TCEV1 model with seasonally estimated parameters was found to be not appropriate for most Polish data as it considerably underrates the skewness of AM distributions and upper quantile values as well. Consequently, the discrepancies between the SM and AM estimates of TCEV1 are observed. Taking SM and TCEV1 distribution, the dominating season in AM series was confronted with predominant season for extreme floods. The key argument for presumptive superiority of SM approach that SM samples are more statistically homogeneous than AM samples has not been confirmed by the data. An analysis of fitness to SM and AM of Polish datasets made for seven distributions pointed to Pearson (3) distribution as the best for AM and Summer Maxima, whereas it was impossible to select a single best model for winter samples. In the multi‐model approach to FFA, the tree functions, i.e., Pe(3), CD3 and LN3, should be involved for both SM and AM. As the case study, Warsaw gauge on the Vistula River was selected. While most of AM elements are here from winter season, the prevailing majority of extreme annual floods are the summer maxima. The upper quantile estimates got by means of classical annual and two‐season methods happen to be fairly close; what's more they are nearly equal to the quantiles calculated just for the season of dominating extreme floods. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国大陆水平地壳运动的数学模型

在获得中国区域1000个实测GPS台站速度场的基础上,利用多面函数法、滑动欧拉矢量法和滑动弹塑性模型法建立了中国大陆水平地壳运动模型,统计表明3种方法外部符合精度2～4mm/a,模型互差精度约为3mm/a。     

Study on Variation of Fitting Goodness of Relation Between Earthquake Frequency and Magnitude before Moderately Strong Earthquakes (Ms≥5.0)

In this paper,characteristics of spatial and temporal variation of linear fitting goodness before some moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0)in the eastern part of China(east of longitude 180)are studied according to the famous Gutenberg-Richter's relation expressed as lgN=a-bM,by using the moderate and small events that occurred in and around the source area.The results show that the linear goodness of fitting varies abnormally prior to these moderately strong earthquakes.In the early stage of the earthquake preparatory process,distribution of the energy released through small events in and around the source area is isostatic and the fitting goodness approximates 1,while the distribution of the energy turns to be isostatic before moderately strong earthquakes,leading to the obvious decrease of the linear goodness of fitting.This phenomenon could be a medium term anomaly and a medium term criterion for moderately strong earthquake prediction.     

基于二次曲面的Shepard拟合法在GPS水准中的应用

针对GPS水准中常用拟合方法的不足,给出一种基于二次曲面的Shepard拟合法。通过某测区GPS水准实测数据,采用二次曲面拟合法、Shepard拟合法、多面函数法和基于二次曲面的Shepard拟合法对测区高程异常进行拟合,结果表明,基于二次曲面的Shepard拟合法计算得到的高程异常的精度和可靠性最高。     

一种深度图像拟合圆柱的优化方法

圆柱状构件广泛存在于古建筑仿真中,为了提高古建筑深度图像圆柱拟合的精度,针对古建筑仿真3维建模的特点,提出基于高斯图获取圆柱拟合参数初始值,然后利用圆柱距离函数参数化法进行非线性最小二乘拟合的圆柱拟合方法.实验证明,该方法不仅具有较高的精度,而且拟合结果稳定可靠.     

南海神狐海域水合物一维速度结构研究： 基于中—低饱和度水合物区的约束

高精度OBS探测作为目前研究水合物的常用技术手段,可以获取水合物矿体精细速度结构,在研究天然气水合物饱和度、水合物资源的预测与开发等方面具有重要指导意义。然而正演模拟OBS速度结构是繁琐漫长的过程,构建合理的初始模型是后续精细结构快速成像的重要前提。本研究基于全球18个已探明地震波速度的水合物区,分析了水合物矿体内纵波速度的共性特征和影响因素,拟合了水合物矿体带纵波速度与海水深度、沉积物厚度的经验公式。综合经验公式、OBS数据与多道地震剖面,建立了神狐水合物区横向均匀初始模型,并通过射线追踪与走时拟合模拟了神狐海域的一维纵波速度结构。结果表明,神狐水合物矿体带具有高纵波速度(1.83~1.92 km/s）,游离气层具有低P波速度（1.60~1.70 km/s）,此外,基于全球的水合物速度经验公式对神狐海域速度结构模拟具有重要参考意义,有望为获取神狐海域二维/三维精确速度结构提供可靠的初始模型,进而指导水合物精细勘察与资源评估。     

既有铁路曲线整正测量

针对传统方法进行既有铁路曲线整正测量精度低、效率低、安全性差,难以满足维修养护中大机作业要求的问题,提出了将现代测绘技术应用于既有线测量的方法。建立全线统一的三维控制网,并加大轨道控制网点位密度,有效地方便了线路中心坐标采集以及调线作业;采用了初拟合与调整、考虑调线控制关键点、进一步细化拟合与调整的平面曲线优化方法;创造性地采用非接触性测量方法,进行桥梁偏心的精确测定。所提方法应用于数条长大既有线路进行实践检验的结果表明,曲线整正测量精度明显提高,并在面对复杂曲线时也能较为快速地拟合出拔量最小的优化曲线,其在生产中切实可行,能够满足现代化既有线维修养护需要。     

空间圆拟合方法在地铁洞门坐标计算中的应用

将地铁洞门看成空间圆球体与空间平面相交形成的圆。首先,使用最小二乘法拟合空间洞门所在的平面;然后,利用空间平面方程作为约束条件进行最小二乘法空间圆球体拟合,即可得到空间圆方程并得到圆心坐标与半径;最后,结合上海市12号线洞门检测工程实例验证该方法的有效性。     

基于CORS的GPS拟合高程技术在城市管网控制测量中的应用

长春市已经建立的连续运行卫星定位参考站系统能够提供实时高精度平面位置的定位,但是,高精度的似大地水准面精化技术未投入实际应用,使得空间第三维信息的获取未做到简洁、高效。如果将CORS技术和GPS拟合高程技术相结合,将能实现真正意义的空间高精度实时三维动态定位,从而代替繁重的几何水准测量。