Deriving rules from activity diary data: A learning algorithm and results of computer experiments

 Activity-based models consider travel as a derived demand from the activities households need to conduct in space and time. Over the last 15 years, computational or rule-based models of activity scheduling have gained increasing interest in time-geography and transportation research. This paper argues that a lack of techniques for deriving rules from empirical data hinders the further development of rule-based systems in this area. To overcome this problem, this paper develops and tests an algorithm for inductively deriving rules from activity-diary data. The decision table formalism is used to exhaustively represent the theoretically possible decision rules that individuals may use in sequencing a given set of activities. Actual activity patterns of individuals are supplied to the system as examples. In an incremental learning process, the system progressively improves on the selection of rules used for reproducing the examples. Computer experiments based on simulated data are performed to fine-tune rule selection and rule value update functions. The results suggest that the system is effective and fairly robust for parameter settings. It is concluded, therefore, that the proposed approach opens up possibilities to derive empirically tested rule-based models of activity scheduling. Follow-up research will be concerned with testing the system on empirical data. Received: 31 January 2001 / Accepted: 13 September 2001     

黑龙江省罕达气—纳金口子一带金及有色金属成矿条件找矿标志

通过区域地层、构造、岩浆岩特征及与矿产分布关系分析，研究了成矿区的区域地质特征及规律，并进行了综合信息定性成矿预测，总结出研究区金及有色金属成矿条件及规律，提出有利的区域找矿标志。     

Jewish settlement of Hebron: The place and the other1

Kiryat-Arba and Jewish Hebron are communities planted in the most heated front of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This paper examines how the Hebron Jewish settlers' collective memory interprets the `truth' of Hebron as a typical Israeli Place that reveals Zionism in its purest form. Today the populations of Kiryat-Arba and of the Hebron Jewish enclaves number about 5,000 and 500, respectively. Kiryat-Arba functions as an economic and educational centre for the nearby Jewish settlements in the region. Rejecting the segregative concept of a separate Jewish settlement overlooking Hebron, the settlers treat Kiryat-Arba as part of Hebron. Some 70,000 Palestinians live in Hebron, many more residing in neighbouring towns and villages, cutting Hebron – Kiryat–Arba off from the nearest Jewish urban centres of Jerusalem and Beer-Sheva. The settlers initiated the narrative of `Return' to the city after the massacre of Jews in 1929 in the city, as the key symbol Symbolically, the first place Hebron Jews reidentified with was its ancient Jewish graveyard. Today, IDF soldiers protect settlers and their visitors who want to tour Hebron. The huge gulf between `metaphorical Hebron' as a symbolic centre and `actual Hebron' as a poor development town creates tensions fuelling violent events. The Jews in Hebron take the Israeli logic of `Place' making to its extreme, thus testing concepts of Israeli territoriality. If Israeli society rejects Hebron as a `Place' constructed from intense memories and violent national encounters, it would leave the Hebron Jews out of the so-called Israeli normalcy.     

Calculation of Uncertainty in the Variogram

There are often limited data available in early stages of geostatistical modeling. This leads to considerable uncertainty in statistical parameters including the variogram. This article presents an approach to calculate the uncertainty in the variogram. A methodology to transfer this uncertainty through geostatistical simulation and decision making is also presented.The experimental variogram value for a separation lag vector h is a mean of squared differences. The variance of a mean can be calculated with a model of the correlation between the pairs of data used in the calculation. The data here are squared differences; therefore, we need a measure of a 4-point correlation. A theoretical multi-Gaussian approach is presented for this uncertainty assessment together with a number of examples. The theoretical results are validated by numerical simulation. The simulation approach permits generalization to non-Gaussian situations.Multiple plausible variograms may be fit knowing the uncertainty at each variogram point, . Multiple geostatistical realizations may then be constructed and subjected to process assessment to measure the impact of this uncertainty.     

利用尾矿废石制造微晶玻璃花岗岩的投资可行性分析

在论述尾矿废石利用现状的基础上,对利用尾矿废石制造微晶玻璃花岗岩的投资可行性进行了分析,提供了一套可用于此类决策的分析方法。     

油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径的设计

研究油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径的根本目的在于规避风险,以利润极大化为原则,兼顾社会目标,正确选择投资方向,合理安排投资规模,保证石油化工企业油气资源的持续安全供应和可持续发展,提高集团的竞争力.油气勘探开发项目具有明显的实物期权特性,传统的NPV方法已经不适应此类项目的评价与决策,本文结合中石化的实际,从企业目标和社会目标2个方面着手,提出了基于实物期权的油气勘探开发项目投资决策路径,从而丰富了项目投资决策的思路和方法.     

Nonrenewable resources in economic, social, and environmental sustainability

This paper reviews the linkages among energy and mineral resources and economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Nonrenewable resources are shown to be integral components of sustainability, regardless of which paradigmatic definition of the concept is invoked. Potential measures of the degree to which nonrenewable resources contribute to or detract from sustainability are presented. We conclude that a set of such measures should be incorporated in the comprehensive framework of sustainability currently being developed by the Federal government. National scale indicators could be presented within the structure of the seven criteria from the Santiago Declaration, whereas a life cycle or materials flow approach could be used when sustainability of specific resources is at issue.     

发展城市地质科技 构筑地质人才高地

上要建设成现代化国际大都市,城市地质工作必须确保上海城市建设各项规划任务的顺利实现。通过总结经验,转变观念,及时把握机遇,发展城市地质科技,构筑地质人才高地,为新世纪上海城市建设大发展作出新的贡献。     

Risk-based drought early warning system in reservoir operation

This paper introduces a risk-based decision process integrated into a drought early warning system (DEWS) for reservoir operation. It is to support policy making under uncertainty for drought management. Aspects of posterior risk, chances of option occurrences and the corresponding options to given chances, are provided to help decision makers to make better decisions. A new risk index is also defined to characterize decision makers’ attitudes toward risk. Decision makers can understand the inclination of attitude associated with any specific probability through accuracy assessment, and learn to adjust their attitudes in decision-making process. As a pioneering experiment, the Shihmen reservoir in northern Taiwan was tested. Over the simulation period (1964–2005), the expected overall accuracy approximated to 77%. The results show that the proposed approach is very practical and should find good use for reservoir operations.     

MapGIS支持下辽宁省地质专题地图制作研究

在MapGIS软件平台支持下对专题地图制作进行研究,以辽宁省地质专题地图为底图,对其进行专题地图制作,包括对栅格地图的配准校正,数据库的设计建立、矢量化、符号化等一系列的制图工作,通过一些制图方法来完成地质专题地图的制作与研究。